PL: Forest nearly (95%) clinched new PL contract
PL: Forest nearly (95%) clinched new PL contract
Forest have 3 points advantage over Luton plus goal difference making them very likely to avoid relegation. Both City and Arsenal won leaving City with a 63 chance on the title. Newcastle are in the mix for an EL spot. Tottenham still big favourite, with Newcastle and Man United tied over the second spot.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 82 | Man City | 88.4 | +58 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 63% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 83 | Arsenal | 86.9 | +62 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 75 | Liverpool | 80.5 | +43 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 67 | Aston Villa | 71.3 | +21 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95.3% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.7% | 95.3% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 65.9 | +14 | < 1% | 99.93% | 99.05% | 92% | 4.7% | < 1% | 2.1% | 93% | 4.7% |
| 56 | Newcastle | 60.3 | +22 | < 1% | 88% | 57% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | 41% | 46% | < 1% |
| 54 | Man United | 59.4 | +1 | < 1% | 69% | 33% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | 28% | 48% | < 1% |
| 51 | Chelsea | 57.4 | +7 | < 1% | 42% | 11% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 28% | 9% | < 1% |
| 49 | West Ham | 52.5 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Bournemouth | 50.6 | -11 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Brighton | 49.3 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 48.2 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Fulham | 46.2 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 40 | Crystal Palace | 43.9 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Everton | 41.7 | -11 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 36 | Brentford | 38.5 | -8 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Forest | 31.3 | -19 | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Luton | 27.9 | -30 | 95.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 24.7 | -39 | 99.08% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 18.9 | -64 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 92% | 50% | 50% | ||||
| Arsenal | 37% | ||||||
| Liverpool | 100% | < 1% | |||||
| Aston Villa | 13% | ||||||
| Man United | 22% |
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Man United vs Arsenal (27.5%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Arsenal | 16% | 22% | 60% |
| Man City | 84% | 78% | 40% |
| Fulham vs Man City (20.6%) | Home Win (17%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (63%) |
| Man City | 35% | 44% | 77% |
| Arsenal | 65% | 56% | 23% |
| Man City | Arsenal | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 26% | 26% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 26% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 50% | 24% | 69% | 32% | 32% | 73% |
| 88 | 72% | 22% | 68% | 32% | < 1% | - |
| 87 | 79% | 7% | 44% | 57% | 25% | 27% |
| 86 | 91% | 12% | 15% | 85% | 28% | 21% |
| 85 | 97.0% | 6% | 11% | 89% | 3.8% | 9% |
| 84 | 98.5% | 1.5% | 4% | 96.5% | 8% | 3.1% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 76 | 6% | 6% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 75 | 6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 74 | 18% | 11% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 73 | 35% | 17% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 72 | 42% | 7% | 99.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 60% |
| 71 | 63% | 21% | 98.1% | 1.9% | < 1% | - |
| 70 | 80% | 17% | 96.3% | 7% | 4.9% | 27% |
| 69 | 86% | 6% | 92% | 17% | 11% | 15% |
| 68 | 95.3% | 9% | 81% | 22% | 4.4% | 8% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Newcastle vs Brighton (7.4%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Newcastle | 55% | 38% | 27% |
| Man United | 42% | 52% | 59% |
| Chelsea | 6% | 11% | 15% |
| Tottenham | 96.9% | 98.8% | 99.3% |
| Crystal Palace vs Man United (6%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Man United | 38% | 44% | 62% |
| Newcastle | 53% | 49% | 34% |
| Chelsea | 11% | 9% | 6% |
| Man United vs Arsenal (5.9%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Man United | 63% | 45% | 38% |
| Newcastle | 34% | 48% | 53% |
| Chelsea | 6% | 9% | 11% |
| Tottenham | Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | |||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 66 | 59% | 19% | 100% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 68% | 9% | 98.7% | 1.8% | < 1% | - | 6% | 6% | 87% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 84% | 16% | 98.7% | 6% | 4.7% | 100% | 6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 93% | 9% | 95% | 14% | 8% | 93% | 17% | 11% | 81% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 66% |
| 62 | 96.0% | 3.1% | 88% | 19% | 4.7% | 82% | 35% | 19% | 66% | 4.1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 99.04% | 3.0% | 80% | 34% | 15% | 67% | 42% | 7% | 69% | 13% | 9% | 37% |
| 60 | 100% | < 1% | 58% | 49% | 15% | 46% | 63% | 21% | 44% | 25% | 12% | 17% |
| 59 | 100% | < 1% | - | 59% | 10% | 33% | 82% | 18% | 22% | 32% | 7% | 6% |
| 58 | 100% | < 1% | - | 76% | 17% | 26% | 87% | 6% | 20% | 50% | 19% | 2.5% |
| 57 | 100% | < 1% | - | 87% | 11% | 23% | 95.9% | 9% | 4.9% | 65% | 15% | < 1% |
| 56 | 100% | < 1% | - | 92% | 5% | 22% | 100% | 4.1% | < 1% | 74% | 9% | < 1% |
| 55 | 100% | < 1% | - | 97.8% | 6% | 22% | 100% | < 1% | - | 87% | 13% | < 1% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Forest vs Chelsea (13.2%) | Home Win (34%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (42%) |
| Chelsea | 20% | 30% | 54% |
| Newcastle | 94% | 91% | 79% |
| Man United | 84% | 79% | 67% |
| Chelsea vs West Ham (12.9%) | Home Win (53%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Chelsea | 50% | 26% | 17% |
| Newcastle | 81% | 92% | 95.0% |
| Man United | 69% | 81% | 86% |
| West Ham | < 1% | < 1% | 2.1% |
| Newcastle vs Brighton (7%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Newcastle | 94% | 83% | 71% |
| Chelsea | 32% | 39% | 47% |
| Crystal Palace vs Man United (6.6%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Man United | 65% | 75% | 89% |
| Chelsea | 45% | 37% | 27% |
| Man United vs Arsenal (6.5%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Man United | 89% | 75% | 66% |
| Chelsea | 26% | 37% | 44% |
| Newcastle | Man United | Chelsea | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 66 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 1.8% | 1.8% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 6% | 6% | 100% | 1.8% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 6% | < 1% | - | 6% | 4.7% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 17% | 11% | 100% | 14% | 8% | 99.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 96.7% |
| 62 | 35% | 19% | 98.7% | 19% | 4.7% | 99.4% | 4.1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 42% | 7% | 98.9% | 34% | 15% | 96.7% | 13% | 9% | 87% |
| 60 | 63% | 21% | 94% | 49% | 15% | 89% | 25% | 12% | 72% |
| 59 | 82% | 18% | 82% | 59% | 10% | 80% | 32% | 7% | 52% |
| 58 | 87% | 6% | 77% | 76% | 17% | 65% | 50% | 19% | 42% |
| 57 | 95.9% | 9% | 54% | 87% | 11% | 50% | 65% | 15% | 22% |
| 56 | 100% | 4.1% | 34% | 92% | 5% | 41% | 74% | 9% | 10% |
| 55 | 100% | < 1% | - | 97.8% | 6% | 30% | 87% | 13% | 5% |
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| West Ham vs Luton (14.3%) | Home Win (67%) | Draw (19%) | Away Win (15%) |
| Luton | < 1% | 7% | 21% |
| Forest | 98.9% | 92% | 78% |
| Forest vs Chelsea (8.5%) | Home Win (34%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (42%) |
| Forest | >99.99% | 96.3% | 89% |
| Luton | < 1% | 3.7% | 8% |
| Burnley | < 1% | < 1% | 2.2% |
| Luton | Forest | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 35 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 9% | 9% | 100% |
| 34 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 9% | < 1% | - |
| 33 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 24% | 15% | 100% |
| 32 | 5% | 5% | 48% | 52% | 28% | >99.99% |
| 31 | 5% | < 1% | - | 58% | 6% | 95% |
| 30 | 15% | 10% | 21% | 80% | 22% | 95% |
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Liverpool vs Tottenham (6.3%) | Home Win (59%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (20%) |
| Tottenham | 1.6% | 4.2% | 14% |
| Aston Villa | 98.4% | 95.8% | 86% |
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