PL: Chelsea in the race for continental competitions
PL: Chelsea in the race for continental competitions
Chelsea are in the race for Europe. They reach EL in 14% of the simulations and ECL in 36% of the simulations. They probably need 7 or 9 points in the last three games to have a go at the EL spot. The ECL spot is within more reach where 5 point will give them a good chance, given the relatively tough schedules for Man United and Newcastle.
CL races unchanged after losses for Villa and Spurs. Villa need another three points to clinch aCL spot mathematically, but two points are likely to suffice given their goal difference. Tottenham probably need to win remaining matches to have a chance on CL, which they do in 9% of the simulations. The big hurdle is, of course, a title racing Man City.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 82 | Man City | 88.4 | +58 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 63% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 83 | Arsenal | 86.9 | +62 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 78 | Liverpool | 81.5 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 67 | Aston Villa | 69.9 | +20 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.4% | 96.6% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 65.1 | +13 | < 1% | 99.83% | 98.1% | 88% | 3.4% | < 1% | 3.3% | 93% | 3.4% |
| 56 | Newcastle | 60.3 | +22 | < 1% | 83% | 54% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | 38% | 44% | < 1% |
| 54 | Man United | 59.4 | +1 | < 1% | 60% | 30% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | 46% | < 1% |
| 54 | Chelsea | 58.6 | +12 | < 1% | 57% | 18% | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 36% | 14% | < 1% |
| 49 | West Ham | 51.5 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 47 | Brighton | 50.9 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Bournemouth | 50.6 | -11 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 48.2 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Fulham | 46.2 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 40 | Crystal Palace | 43.9 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Everton | 41.7 | -11 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 36 | Brentford | 38.5 | -8 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Forest | 31.3 | -19 | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Luton | 27.9 | -30 | 95.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 24.7 | -39 | 99.07% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 18.9 | -64 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 73 | 16% | 16% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 72 | 16% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 71 | 36% | 20% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 70 | 64% | 29% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 69 | 70% | 6% | 99.0% | 9% | 9% | 30% |
| 68 | 87% | 17% | 91% | 9% | < 1% | - |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Newcastle vs Brighton (8.2%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Newcastle | 54% | 36% | 23% |
| Chelsea | 10% | 18% | 24% |
| Man United | 41% | 49% | 55% |
| Tottenham | 95.1% | 97.6% | 98.5% |
| Forest vs Chelsea (8.1%) | Home Win (34%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (42%) |
| Chelsea | 3.7% | 9% | 26% |
| Newcastle | 49% | 46% | 38% |
| Man United | 50% | 48% | 41% |
| Man United vs Arsenal (5.7%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Man United | 61% | 43% | 36% |
| Newcastle | 33% | 46% | 50% |
| Chelsea | 10% | 15% | 17% |
| Crystal Palace vs Man United (5.6%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Man United | 36% | 42% | 60% |
| Newcastle | 50% | 46% | 34% |
| Chelsea | 18% | 15% | 10% |
| Tottenham | Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | |||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 66 | 50% | 26% | 100% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 56% | 7% | 98.7% | 1.7% | < 1% | - | 6% | 6% | 89% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 77% | 20% | 98.7% | 6% | 4.7% | 100% | 6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 90% | 14% | 93% | 14% | 8% | 91% | 17% | 11% | 82% | 8% | 8% | 69% |
| 62 | 94% | 3.7% | 86% | 19% | 4.7% | 80% | 35% | 19% | 65% | 8% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 98.4% | 4.4% | 76% | 34% | 15% | 63% | 42% | 7% | 67% | 21% | 13% | 38% |
| 60 | 100% | 1.6% | 49% | 49% | 15% | 41% | 63% | 21% | 41% | 40% | 19% | 17% |
| 59 | 100% | < 1% | - | 59% | 10% | 30% | 82% | 18% | 17% | 47% | 7% | 6% |
| 58 | 100% | < 1% | - | 76% | 17% | 24% | 87% | 6% | 15% | 68% | 21% | 2.5% |
| 57 | 100% | < 1% | - | 87% | 11% | 22% | 95.9% | 9% | 3.2% | 84% | 16% | < 1% |
| 56 | 100% | < 1% | - | 92% | 5% | 22% | 100% | 4.1% | < 1% | 89% | 5% | < 1% |
| 55 | 100% | < 1% | - | 97.8% | 6% | 22% | 100% | < 1% | - | 96.8% | 7% | < 1% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Forest vs Chelsea (15.4%) | Home Win (34%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (42%) |
| Chelsea | 31% | 43% | 70% |
| Newcastle | 91% | 86% | 71% |
| Man United | 78% | 71% | 60% |
| Newcastle vs Brighton (9.3%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Newcastle | 91% | 76% | 61% |
| Chelsea | 44% | 54% | 63% |
| Man United | 66% | 70% | 75% |
| Crystal Palace vs Man United (7.4%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Man United | 57% | 67% | 84% |
| Chelsea | 59% | 51% | 39% |
| Newcastle | 84% | 82% | 77% |
| Man United vs Arsenal (7.1%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Man United | 84% | 68% | 58% |
| Chelsea | 39% | 50% | 58% |
| Newcastle | 77% | 82% | 84% |
| Newcastle | Man United | Chelsea | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 66 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 1.7% | 1.7% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 6% | 6% | 100% | 1.7% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 6% | < 1% | - | 6% | 4.7% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 17% | 11% | 100% | 14% | 8% | 99.7% | 8% | 8% | 97.1% |
| 62 | 35% | 19% | 97.7% | 19% | 4.7% | 98.8% | 8% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 42% | 7% | 97.9% | 34% | 15% | 95% | 21% | 13% | 88% |
| 60 | 63% | 21% | 90% | 49% | 15% | 82% | 40% | 19% | 73% |
| 59 | 82% | 18% | 71% | 59% | 10% | 71% | 47% | 7% | 52% |
| 58 | 87% | 6% | 66% | 76% | 17% | 52% | 68% | 21% | 42% |
| 57 | 95.9% | 9% | 39% | 87% | 11% | 36% | 84% | 16% | 23% |
| 56 | 100% | 4.1% | 16% | 92% | 5% | 29% | 89% | 5% | 10% |
| 55 | 100% | < 1% | - | 97.8% | 6% | 24% | 96.8% | 7% | 5% |
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Aston Villa vs Liverpool (5.9%) | Home Win (41%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Aston Villa | 100% | 96.4% | 93% |
| Tottenham | < 1% | 3.6% | 7% |
Like
Dislike
Love
Angry
Sad
Funny
Wow
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
Comments 0