Europa League - Matchweek 1
Europa League - Matchweek 1
Updated probabilities after one match. In most simulations, 14-15 points are required to finish within top-8 and 9-10 points are required to reach the knockout stage.
Europa League
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ | |||
| 3 | Tottenham | 16 | 18-9 | 98.2% | 90% | 69% | 90% | 61% | 39% | 24% | 12% | |||
| 3 | Lazio | 16 | 11-7 | 96.8% | 86% | 61% | 86% | 55% | 33% | 19% | 9% | |||
| 3 | Galatasaray | 16 | 18-16 | 96.9% | 86% | 61% | 82% | 42% | 19% | 8% | 4.2% | |||
| 3 | Slavia Praha | 15 | 15-10 | 95.5% | 82% | 54% | 81% | 47% | 25% | 13% | 7% | |||
| 1 | Bilbao | 14 | 16-4 | 94% | 80% | 50% | 80% | 49% | 28% | 15% | 8% | |||
| 3 | Lyon | 14 | 11-6 | 93% | 74% | 44% | 71% | 36% | 16% | 7% | 3.5% | |||
| 1 | Man United | 14 | 16-13 | 91% | 72% | 40% | 76% | 48% | 29% | 17% | 8% | |||
| 1 | Roma | 14 | 15-12 | 91% | 72% | 40% | 77% | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | |||
| 1 | Sociedad | 14 | 13-11 | 90% | 70% | 39% | 72% | 42% | 23% | 12% | 6% | |||
| 0 | Porto | 13 | 13-11 | 85% | 61% | 30% | 70% | 46% | 29% | 18% | 9% | |||
| 3 | Anderlecht | 13 | 12-11 | 87% | 62% | 29% | 58% | 24% | 9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | |||
| 3 | Fenerbahce | 13 | 11-11 | 84% | 59% | 29% | 60% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 3.3% | |||
| 1 | Frankfurt | 12 | 19-11 | 86% | 59% | 26% | 60% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2.9% | |||
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 15-11 | 83% | 55% | 24% | 49% | 18% | 6% | 1.8% | < 1% | |||
| 1 | Nice | 12 | 14-10 | 82% | 56% | 25% | 57% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2.7% | |||
| 3 | Braga | 12 | 12-11 | 80% | 51% | 22% | 51% | 22% | 9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | |||
| 0 | Olympiakos | 12 | 13-14 | 77% | 48% | 19% | 49% | 22% | 9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | |||
| 1 | Hoffenheim | 12 | 13-14 | 78% | 48% | 19% | 51% | 25% | 11% | 4.8% | 2.4% | |||
| 3 | Bodoe Glimt | 12 | 10-14 | 75% | 45% | 17% | 40% | 14% | 4.3% | 1.2% | < 1% | |||
| 3 | Rangers | 11 | 13-12 | 73% | 42% | 15% | 38% | 12% | 3.8% | 1.1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | PAOK | 11 | 12-11 | 73% | 41% | 13% | 40% | 15% | 5% | 1.7% | < 1% | |||
| 3 | Alkmaar | 10 | 13-12 | 64% | 33% | 11% | 31% | 10% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | St Gillis | 10 | 8-7 | 62% | 33% | 11% | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | |||
| 1 | Twente | 10 | 16-16 | 61% | 31% | 10% | 32% | 11% | 3.8% | 1.2% | < 1% | |||
| 1 | Viktoria Plzen | 10 | 14-14 | 61% | 31% | 10% | 32% | 12% | 4.1% | 1.3% | < 1% | |||
| 1 | Midtjylland | 10 | 9-10 | 58% | 29% | 9% | 29% | 10% | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | M Tel Aviv | 10 | 13-16 | 57% | 27% | 8% | 26% | 8% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | Karabakh Agdam | 10 | 10-13 | 57% | 27% | 8% | 26% | 8% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | Dynamo Kyiv | 8 | 8-12 | 34% | 11% | 1.8% | 12% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 3 | Steaua | 8 | 11-23 | 29% | 9% | 1.7% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | Malmoe | 7 | 13-14 | 31% | 10% | 2.1% | 10% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | Besiktas | 7 | 8-15 | 25% | 8% | 1.4% | 8% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | Ferencvaros | 7 | 11-23 | 20% | 6% | < 1% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | Elfsborg | 6 | 8-14 | 16% | 4.1% | < 1% | 4.9% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | Razgrad | 6 | 8-16 | 15% | 3.7% | < 1% | 4.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| 0 | RFS | 3 | 6-24 | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 | ||||
| Pts | GD | Pts | GD | Pts | GD | |
| 1% | 11 | 12-14 | 13 | 18-13 | 16 | 22-9 |
| 5% | 10 | 16-15 | 13 | 16-14 | 16 | 14-7 |
| 25% | 10 | 12-15 | 12 | 15-9 | 15 | 19-11 |
| 50% | 9 | 13-11 | 12 | 11-9 | 15 | 14-10 |
| 75% | 9 | 8-10 | 12 | 11-13 | 14 | 15-8 |
| 95% | 8 | 14-15 | 11 | 11-10 | 14 | 13-11 |
| 99% | 8 | 9-13 | 11 | 10-12 | 13 | 15-10 |
| Score | ||||
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| ENG | 76% | 17.97 | 7.79 | 26.29 |
| ESP | 38% | 15.93 | 7.07 | 25.14 |
| ITA | 27% | 15.34 | 7.38 | 24.19 |
| POR | 25% | 15.01 | 6.4 | 27 |
| GER | 21% | 15 | 6.69 | 24.44 |
| BEL | 5% | 13.09 | 5.4 | 24.25 |
| CYP | 3.0% | 12.32 | 5 | 24.17 |
| CZE | 2.6% | 12.6 | 6.3 | 22.2 |
| GRE | 1.6% | 11.78 | 4.63 | 21.63 |
| TUR | < 1% | 11.59 | 5.1 | 21.1 |
| FRA | < 1% | 10.76 | 4.36 | 19.57 |
| UKR | < 1% | 8.13 | 2.5 | 24.75 |
| NED | < 1% | 9.18 | 3.33 | 19.08 |
| SWE | < 1% | 9.48 | 4.5 | 19 |
| NOR | < 1% | 9.36 | 4.38 | 17.38 |
| DEN | < 1% | 8.63 | 3.5 | 16.25 |
| AUT | < 1% | 8.09 | 2.8 | 17.6 |
| SCO | < 1% | 6.23 | 2 | 14.1 |
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