PL: Villa and Forest with the best start of the season.
PL: Villa and Forest with the best start of the season.
With their late equaliser City gained 8% in their chances to win the league.
Villa and Forest have the most positive starts, while Everton, Southampton, Palace, Wolves and Leicester all have started worse than expected.
Coming weekend Chelsea are hosting Brighton in a match for the CL race, while Tottenha, travel to Old Trafford in a crucial match for the EL slots.
Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Forest: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Arsenal: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected
Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Leicester: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 13 | Man City | 88.7 | +61 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.95% | 82% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.98% |
| 11 | Arsenal | 79.1 | +43 | < 1% | 99.85% | 99.63% | 99.01% | 97.3% | 14% | < 1% | 1.1% | 98.7% |
| 12 | Liverpool | 73.0 | +34 | < 1% | 98.5% | 96.9% | 94% | 87% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 6% | 92% |
| 10 | Chelsea | 63.8 | +19 | < 1% | 83% | 74% | 60% | 41% | < 1% | 6% | 29% | 56% |
| 10 | Newcastle | 60.9 | +9 | < 1% | 70% | 57% | 42% | 24% | < 1% | 11% | 28% | 37% |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 59.7 | +6 | < 1% | 63% | 50% | 35% | 19% | < 1% | 12% | 26% | 31% |
| 7 | Tottenham | 57.7 | +12 | < 1% | 54% | 41% | 27% | 13% | < 1% | 12% | 22% | 32% |
| 7 | Man United | 55.9 | +5 | < 1% | 43% | 30% | 18% | 9% | < 1% | 12% | 20% | 24% |
| 9 | Brighton | 52.9 | +1 | < 1% | 27% | 18% | 10% | 4.2% | < 1% | 11% | 16% | 8% |
| 8 | Fulham | 49.4 | -6 | 2.9% | 14% | 8% | 3.9% | 1.4% | < 1% | 6% | 9% | 3.3% |
| 6 | Brentford | 49.4 | -6 | 3.4% | 14% | 8% | 4.1% | 1.5% | < 1% | 8% | 9% | 3.4% |
| 4 | West Ham | 49.0 | -6 | 3.6% | 13% | 7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | < 1% | 6% | 9% | 3.0% |
| 3 | Crystal Palace | 47.1 | -6 | 6% | 8% | 4.6% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | 8% | 1.8% |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 45.7 | -12 | 8% | 6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| 9 | Forest | 45.0 | -15 | 10% | 4.4% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.6% | 6% | < 1% |
| 1 | Everton | 40.0 | -21 | 29% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.2% | < 1% |
| 1 | Wolves | 39.1 | -23 | 33% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3 | Leicester | 37.5 | -22 | 41% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.8% | < 1% |
| 3 | Ipswich | 31.3 | -36 | 78% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 1 | Southampton | 29.9 | -37 | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 95.1% | 65% | 23% | 3.0% | 35% | 8% | 3.0% |
| Arsenal | 44% | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Liverpool | 26% | 2.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Chelsea | 33% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Newcastle | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Aston Villa | 4.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Tottenham | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Man United | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Brighton | 3.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Fulham | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Brentford | 3.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| West Ham | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Crystal Palace | 5% | < 1% | |||||
| Bournemouth | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Forest | 3.3% | ||||||
| Everton | < 1% | ||||||
| Wolves | < 1% | ||||||
| Leicester | 2.1% | < 1% | |||||
| Ipswich | < 1% | ||||||
| Southampton | 1.2% | < 1% |
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Chelsea vs Brighton (2.1%) | Home Win (58%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Chelsea | 61% | 51% | 45% |
| Brighton | 6% | 9% | 14% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Man United vs Tottenham (2.3%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Man United | 50% | 41% | 36% |
| Tottenham | 49% | 55% | 63% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 95.1% | 65% | 23% | 3.0% | 35% | 8% | 3.0% |
| Arsenal | 44% | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Liverpool | 26% | 2.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Chelsea | 33% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Newcastle | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Aston Villa | 4.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Tottenham | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Man United | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Brighton | 3.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Fulham | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Brentford | 3.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| West Ham | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Crystal Palace | 5% | < 1% | |||||
| Bournemouth | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Forest | 3.3% | ||||||
| Everton | < 1% | ||||||
| Wolves | < 1% | ||||||
| Leicester | 2.1% | < 1% | |||||
| Ipswich | < 1% | ||||||
| Southampton | 1.2% | < 1% |
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