PL: Man United travel to Villa Park
PL: Man United travel to Villa Park
On Saturday Leicester host Bournemouth in an a crucial match in the bottom. On Sunday United travel to Villa Park while Spurs travel down to Brighton for important matches in the Europa race (detailed below).
Hot Teams
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Fulham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected
Cold Teams
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Leicester: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 14 | Man City | 87.8 | +61 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.98% | 99.92% | 78% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.98% |
| 14 | Arsenal | 79.5 | +43 | < 1% | 99.90% | 99.72% | 99.18% | 97.5% | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | 98.9% |
| 15 | Liverpool | 74.1 | +35 | < 1% | 99.08% | 97.9% | 95.2% | 89% | 5% | < 1% | 4.6% | 94% |
| 13 | Chelsea | 64.8 | +20 | < 1% | 87% | 78% | 65% | 45% | < 1% | 4.9% | 27% | 60% |
| 11 | Newcastle | 61.0 | +10 | < 1% | 71% | 58% | 41% | 23% | < 1% | 11% | 29% | 37% |
| 10 | Tottenham | 59.5 | +15 | < 1% | 65% | 51% | 35% | 18% | < 1% | 11% | 25% | 39% |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 58.9 | +5 | < 1% | 60% | 45% | 30% | 15% | < 1% | 13% | 27% | 27% |
| 7 | Man United | 54.2 | +1 | < 1% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 4.8% | < 1% | 13% | 18% | 18% |
| 9 | Brighton | 52.0 | -1 | 1.2% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 2.8% | < 1% | 11% | 14% | 6% |
| 11 | Fulham | 51.2 | -5 | 1.5% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 2.0% | < 1% | 8% | 12% | 4.7% |
| 5 | West Ham | 48.9 | -5 | 3.3% | 12% | 7% | 3.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | 9% | 2.5% |
| 7 | Brentford | 48.7 | -6 | 3.6% | 12% | 7% | 3.1% | 1.0% | < 1% | 8% | 8% | 2.6% |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 46.7 | -11 | 6% | 7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| 3 | Crystal Palace | 45.9 | -7 | 7% | 6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | 5.0% | 7% | 1.1% |
| 9 | Forest | 43.5 | -16 | 13% | 2.8% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.8% | 5.0% | < 1% |
| 4 | Everton | 41.4 | -20 | 21% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| 1 | Wolves | 38.1 | -23 | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3 | Leicester | 37.2 | -22 | 42% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.8% | < 1% |
| 4 | Ipswich | 31.3 | -35 | 78% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 1 | Southampton | 29.2 | -38 | 86% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 93% | 60% | 20% | 2.3% | 33% | 7% | 2.3% |
| Arsenal | 50% | 11% | 1.2% | < 1% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Liverpool | 28% | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Chelsea | 32% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Newcastle | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Tottenham | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Aston Villa | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Man United | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Brighton | 3.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Fulham | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| West Ham | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Brentford | 4.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Bournemouth | < 1% | ||||||
| Crystal Palace | 4.5% | < 1% | |||||
| Forest | 3.3% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Everton | < 1% | ||||||
| Wolves | < 1% | ||||||
| Leicester | 2.0% | < 1% | |||||
| Ipswich | < 1% | ||||||
| Southampton | 1.5% | < 1% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Aston Villa vs Man United (2.5%) | Home Win (49%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (28%) |
| Aston Villa | 60% | 51% | 44% |
| Man United | 30% | 35% | 43% |
| Brighton vs Tottenham (2.3%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Tottenham | 58% | 63% | 71% |
| Brighton | 26% | 18% | 15% |
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Leicester vs Bournemouth (2.4%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Leicester | 65% | 55% | 50% |
| Bournemouth | 92% | 94% | 97.0% |
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Fifth team | 100% | >99.99% | 76% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 68% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 84% | 77% |
| Sixth team | 98.8% | 93% | 3.1% |
| Seventh team | 89% | 59% | 2.8% |
| Eighth team | 56% | 9% | 2.5% |
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Crystal Palace | 30% | 24% | 46% | Liverpool |
| Arsenal | 84% | 11% | 6% | Southampton |
| West Ham | 67% | 18% | 14% | Ipswich |
| Man City | 82% | 12% | 6% | Fulham |
| Leicester | 43% | 24% | 33% | Bournemouth |
| Brentford | 55% | 22% | 23% | Wolves |
| Everton | 36% | 24% | 40% | Newcastle |
| Aston Villa | 49% | 23% | 28% | Man United |
| Chelsea | 67% | 18% | 15% | Forest |
| Brighton | 42% | 24% | 33% | Tottenham |
| 11% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 11% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 8% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 5% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham |
| 3.7% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 3.3% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 3.3% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.3% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 3.1% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 21% | Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton |
| 18% | Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves |
| 9% | Everton, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 6% | Forest, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 5% | Leicester, Southampton, Wolves |
| 3.3% | Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves |
| 3.0% | Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 2.7% | Everton, Leicester, Southampton |
| 2.6% | Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 2.1% | Everton, Southampton, Wolves |
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