CL/EL/ECL: Quarterfinals draw - and how it affects the CL bonus spot
CL/EL/ECL: Quarterfinals draw - and how it affects the CL bonus spot
Champions League
The chances were reduced for the four favourites, Man City, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Bayern. In particular for Real Madrid their chances to reach the semis jumped down from 60% to 36%. Paris are favourites on the other half with a 29% probability to reach the final.
| Team | Semifinal | Final | Champion |
| Man City | 64% (-11) | 42% (-10) | 30% (-4) |
| Arsenal | 53% (-3) | 21% (-7) | 13% (-2) |
| Real Madrid | 36% (-24) | 20% (-14) | 12% (-5) |
| Paris SG | 53% (+9) | 29% (+11) | 11% (+4) |
| Bayern | 47% (-5) | 17% (-8) | 10% (-1) |
| Atletico | 52% (+13) | 25% (+11) | 8% (+3) |
| Barcelona | 47% (+7) | 24% (+9) | 8% (+3) |
| Dortmund | 48% (+12) | 22% (+10) | 7% (+3) |
Europa League
The draw for EL was not as skewed as the CL draw. Atalanta drew to short straw getting Liverpool and Benifica got Marseille the draw did not affect the Champion probabilities that much.
| Team | Semifinal | Final | Champion |
| Liverpool | 73% (-1) | 57% (+3) | 36% |
| Leverkusen | 68% (+6) | 41% (+5) | 21% (+2) |
| Milan | 59% (+5) | 29% (+2) | 13% |
| Benfica | 61%(+15) | 20% | 9% (+1) |
| Atalanta | 27% (-20) | 15% (-5) | 7% (-2) |
| Roma | 41% (-2) | 17% | 6% (-1) |
| West Ham | 32% (-9) | 13% (-2) | 4.9% (-1) |
| Marseille | 39% (+6) | 9% (-1) | 3.2% (-0.1) |
Europa Conference League
Aston Villa and Lille got tough draws playing each other, whereas Fiorentina and Brugge got advantageous draws.
| Team | Semifinal | Final | Champion |
| Aston Villa | 69% (-9) | 55% (-4) | 37% (-4) |
| Fiorentina | 76% (+14) | 50% (+15) | 23% (+6) |
| Brugge | 64% (+14) | 28% (+6) | 11% (+2) |
| Lille | 31% (-27) | 19% (-11) | 10% (-4) |
| Fenerbahce | 66% (+15) | 20% (-3) | 10% |
| PAOK | 36% (+2) | 11% (+1) | 3.3% (+0.1) |
| Viktoria Plzen | 24% (-9) | 10% | 2.8% (-0.1) |
| Olympiakos | 34% (-1) | 6% (-4) | 2.4% (-0.5) |
The key for Germanu now s that Bayern beat Arsenal and advance to the semis. Likewise for England, if Arsenal beat Bayern, they have very good chances.
Which countries get extra CL spots
| Score | ||||
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| ITA | 96.9% | 20.21 | 18.57 | 22.71 |
| ENG | 84% | 19.8 | 16.63 | 23 |
| GER | 19% | 18.31 | 16.5 | 21.36 |
| FRA | < 1% | 16.06 | 14.42 | 20.08 |
| ESP | < 1% | 16.18 | 14.81 | 18.19 |
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