PL: 29% chance that the FA-cup winner plays in the Europa League.
PL: 29% chance that the FA-cup winner plays in the Europa League.
The FA-cup winners end up playing CL in 71% of our simulations. In most cases (68%) that is Man City, as the other teams have smaller chances to qualify for CL. The sixth team is Man United in 49% of the simulations and they end up in EL in 68% of the simulations, either via the FA-cup or the league position.
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 84% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 71% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Sixth team | 100% | 97.1% | < 1% |
| Seventh team | 98.0% | 74% | < 1% |
| Eighth team | 77% | 5% | < 1% |
The current top-5 qualify for CL in 63% of the simulations. In 16% Tottenham or Aston Villa are missing out due to PL missing out on the extra CL spot. Only team against is Man United joining the top-3 and one of Aston Villa or Tottenham. West Ham can qualify through the EL adventure, but less likely.
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 63% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 9% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 7% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 4.7% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham |
| 3.9% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
It's starting to look more and more, 79% now, that the three new teams from the Championship will play in the Championship next year again.
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 79% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 10% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 3.1% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 2.6% | Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United |
| 2.2% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 1.5% | Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 88% | 47% | 9% | 31% | 9% | ||
| Liverpool | 100% | 56% | 11% | ||||
| Arsenal | 34% | 3.1% | |||||
| Aston Villa | 37% | < 1% | |||||
| Tottenham | < 1% | ||||||
| Man United | 19% | ||||||
| Chelsea | 11% | ||||||
| West Ham | 4.9% |
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 63 | Man City | 85.0 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.98% | 45% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 64 | Liverpool | 83.9 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.96% | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 64 | Arsenal | 82.6 | +54 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.91% | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.99% |
| 56 | Aston Villa | 69.4 | +19 | < 1% | 99.82% | 99.0% | 92% | 54% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 86% |
| 53 | Tottenham | 68.4 | +20 | < 1% | 99.50% | 97.8% | 88% | 42% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 80% |
| 47 | Man United | 62.1 | +2 | < 1% | 83% | 64% | 15% | 3.2% | < 1% | 10% | 68% | 13% |
| 40 | Newcastle | 55.9 | +14 | < 1% | 33% | 12% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 21% | 25% | 1.4% |
| 39 | Chelsea | 55.5 | +4 | < 1% | 27% | 10% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 31% | 1.2% |
| 44 | West Ham | 55.4 | -6 | < 1% | 20% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 15% | 5% |
| 42 | Brighton | 55.2 | +5 | < 1% | 24% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 18% | < 1% |
| 41 | Wolves | 54.0 | -4 | < 1% | 12% | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 9% | < 1% |
| 38 | Fulham | 49.1 | -3 | < 1% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | < 1% |
| 35 | Bournemouth | 46.7 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Crystal Palace | 40.0 | -20 | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Brentford | 38.8 | -12 | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Everton | 38.5 | -11 | 3.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Forest | 35.5 | -19 | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 22 | Luton | 29.8 | -27 | 82% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 17 | Burnley | 25.9 | -40 | 96.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 14 | Sheffield United | 22.6 | -60 | 99.45% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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