PL:Seven straight wins after Christamas for Man City
PL:Seven straight wins after Christamas for Man City
In the coming weekend Luton are hosting Sheffield United in a key match for the relegation race.
Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Luton: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Cold Teams
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Sheffield United: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Newcastle: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 49 | Man City | 84.2 | +52 | < 1% | 100% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.86% | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.98% |
| 51 | Liverpool | 80.3 | +45 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.99% | 99.92% | 99.0% | 25% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.80% |
| 49 | Arsenal | 76.6 | +36 | < 1% | 99.98% | 99.89% | 99.38% | 95.2% | 7% | < 1% | 1.2% | 98.7% |
| 46 | Aston Villa | 70.2 | +24 | < 1% | 99.13% | 97.2% | 91% | 65% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 86% |
| 44 | Tottenham | 67.6 | +19 | < 1% | 97.1% | 92% | 80% | 36% | < 1% | 2.3% | 23% | 72% |
| 38 | Man United | 59.2 | -0 | < 1% | 55% | 33% | 10% | 2.0% | < 1% | 14% | 43% | 8% |
| 36 | West Ham | 58.4 | +3 | < 1% | 50% | 28% | 8% | 1.6% | < 1% | 14% | 33% | 15% |
| 35 | Brighton | 57.2 | +6 | < 1% | 42% | 23% | 6% | 1.1% | < 1% | 13% | 30% | 15% |
| 33 | Newcastle | 56.0 | +15 | < 1% | 36% | 18% | 4.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 32% | 4.0% |
| 32 | Wolves | 51.8 | -2 | < 1% | 9% | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 9% | < 1% |
| 31 | Chelsea | 51.7 | -2 | < 1% | 10% | 3.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 34% | 9% | < 1% |
| 27 | Bournemouth | 47.5 | -14 | < 1% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.8% | 3.3% | < 1% |
| 26 | Fulham | 43.7 | -13 | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 24 | Crystal Palace | 42.7 | -17 | 4.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 22 | Brentford | 41.9 | -11 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 19 | Everton | 37.5 | -8 | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Forest | 37.4 | -20 | 25% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Luton | 34.7 | -24 | 50% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Burnley | 28.2 | -33 | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 10 | Sheffield United | 22.7 | -54 | 99.22% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 90% | 54% | 13% | 36% | 13% | ||
| Liverpool | 87% | 45% | 11% | 1.1% | 4.9% | ||
| Arsenal | 16% | < 1% | |||||
| Aston Villa | 38% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Tottenham | < 1% | ||||||
| Man United | 4.6% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| West Ham | 9% | < 1% | |||||
| Brighton | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Newcastle | 6% | ||||||
| Wolves | 1.8% | ||||||
| Chelsea | 32% | < 1% | |||||
| Bournemouth | 1.9% | ||||||
| Forest | < 1% | ||||||
| Luton | < 1% |
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Luton vs Sheffield United (4%) | Home Win (52%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (25%) |
| Luton | 59% | 45% | 38% |
| Sheffield United | < 1% | < 1% | 1.9% |
| Forest | 72% | 77% | 79% |
| Everton | 76% | 80% | 82% |
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Man City | 81% | 12% | 7% | Everton |
| Liverpool | 78% | 14% | 8% | Burnley |
| Luton | 52% | 23% | 25% | Sheffield United |
| Tottenham | 51% | 23% | 26% | Brighton |
| Wolves | 49% | 23% | 28% | Brentford |
| Fulham | 48% | 24% | 29% | Bournemouth |
| Forest | 34% | 24% | 41% | Newcastle |
| West Ham | 36% | 24% | 39% | Arsenal |
| Aston Villa | 57% | 22% | 22% | Man United |
| Crystal Palace | 43% | 24% | 33% | Chelsea |
| 46% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 10% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 5.0% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 4.3% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham |
| 4.0% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 3.5% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City |
| 2.1% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 2.0% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham |
| 43% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 20% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 17% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 4.4% | Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United |
| 3.6% | Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United |
| 2.7% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 2.3% | Everton, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 2.2% | Burnley, Fulham, Sheffield United |
| 1.1% | Everton, Forest, Sheffield United |
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Fifth team | >99.99% | >99.99% | 83% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 77% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 72% | 69% |
| Sixth team | 99.08% | 96.6% | 3.4% |
| Seventh team | 90% | 71% | 3.7% |
| Eighth team | 60% | 12% | 3.5% |
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