PL: Tottenham qualify for EL in 94% of the simulations
PL: Tottenham qualify for EL in 94% of the simulations
Tottenham qualify for CL in 4.7% of the simulations. They need to win all remaining matches to have a good (>50%) chance, but three wins might suffice (>10%). In about 1.3% of the simulations they miss both CL and EL. In about half of them they miss because they finish outside top-6 and in about half, they finish 6th, Man United finish outside top-6 and win The FA Cup. They probably need to collapse and take less than three points in the remaining four games; 6 points will guarantee at an EL spot.
Chelsea are in the race for Europe after last night's win in the London derby. They have almost 50% chance to climb ahead of either Newcaste or Man United. They are on average 1.5 points behind Newcastle, suggesting they have a slightly easier finish. They likely need to take seven points in the last four games to have a good chance on Europe. To reach EL, they probably need 10 or 12 points.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 79 | Man City | 88.0 | +56 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 65% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 80 | Arsenal | 86.3 | +61 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 35% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 75 | Liverpool | 80.5 | +43 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 67 | Aston Villa | 71.3 | +21 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95.3% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.7% | 95.3% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 65.9 | +14 | < 1% | 99.96% | 99.39% | 94% | 4.7% | < 1% | 1.3% | 94% | 4.7% |
| 54 | Man United | 59.4 | +1 | < 1% | 73% | 42% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | 25% | 55% | < 1% |
| 53 | Newcastle | 58.9 | +20 | < 1% | 76% | 42% | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 41% | 34% | < 1% |
| 51 | Chelsea | 57.4 | +7 | < 1% | 49% | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 32% | 13% | < 1% |
| 49 | West Ham | 52.5 | -10 | < 1% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Bournemouth | 51.1 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Brighton | 49.3 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 48.5 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Fulham | 46.3 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 40 | Crystal Palace | 43.9 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 38 | Everton | 42.2 | -11 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 35 | Brentford | 39.2 | -8 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Forest | 29.7 | -21 | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Luton | 28.2 | -31 | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 25.9 | -36 | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 20.2 | -62 | 99.94% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Liverpool vs Tottenham (6.2%) | Home Win (59%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (20%) |
| Aston Villa | 98.4% | 95.7% | 86% |
| Tottenham | 1.6% | 4.3% | 14% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 76 | 6% | 6% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 75 | 6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 74 | 18% | 12% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 73 | 35% | 17% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 72 | 42% | 7% | 99.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 60% |
| 71 | 63% | 21% | 98.1% | 1.8% | < 1% | - |
| 70 | 80% | 17% | 96.3% | 7% | 4.9% | 27% |
| 69 | 86% | 6% | 92% | 17% | 11% | 15% |
| 68 | 95.3% | 9% | 81% | 22% | 4.4% | 8% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Burnley vs Newcastle (6.9%) | Home Win (31%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (45%) |
| Newcastle | 20% | 29% | 46% |
| Man United | 62% | 57% | 48% |
| Chelsea | 18% | 14% | 9% |
| Crystal Palace vs Man United (6.5%) | Home Win (41%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Man United | 44% | 52% | 69% |
| Newcastle | 40% | 35% | 24% |
| Chelsea | 17% | 14% | 8% |
| Tottenham | Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | |||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 66 | 59% | 19% | 100% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 68% | 9% | 99.4% | 1.8% | < 1% | - | 2.6% | 2.6% | 87% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 84% | 16% | 99.4% | 6% | 4.7% | 100% | 2.6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 93% | 9% | 96.9% | 14% | 8% | 95% | 9% | 6% | 81% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 71% |
| 62 | 96.1% | 3.1% | 93% | 19% | 4.7% | 90% | 19% | 10% | 67% | 4.1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 99.04% | 2.9% | 87% | 34% | 15% | 78% | 25% | 6% | 69% | 13% | 9% | 48% |
| 60 | 100% | < 1% | 68% | 49% | 15% | 58% | 42% | 17% | 47% | 25% | 12% | 27% |
| 59 | 100% | < 1% | - | 59% | 10% | 46% | 58% | 16% | 26% | 32% | 7% | 14% |
| 58 | 100% | < 1% | - | 76% | 17% | 33% | 67% | 10% | 22% | 50% | 19% | 8% |
| 57 | 100% | < 1% | - | 87% | 11% | 25% | 82% | 15% | 7% | 65% | 15% | 1.8% |
| 56 | 100% | < 1% | - | 92% | 5% | 23% | 91% | 9% | 1.3% | 74% | 9% | < 1% |
| 55 | 100% | < 1% | - | 97.8% | 6% | 22% | 95.1% | 3.9% | < 1% | 87% | 13% | < 1% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs West Ham (13.7%) | Home Win (53%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Chelsea | 60% | 35% | 23% |
| Newcastle | 66% | 81% | 85% |
| West Ham | < 1% | < 1% | 3.9% |
| Man United | 74% | 83% | 87% |
| Burnley vs Newcastle (9%) | Home Win (31%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (45%) |
| Newcastle | 58% | 71% | 87% |
| Chelsea | 56% | 48% | 37% |
| Man United | 83% | 80% | 76% |
| Crystal Palace vs Man United (5.5%) | Home Win (41%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Man United | 70% | 79% | 91% |
| Chelsea | 52% | 46% | 37% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | West Ham | |||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 65 | 1.8% | < 1% | - | 2.6% | 2.6% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 6% | 4.7% | 100% | 2.6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 14% | 8% | 99.9% | 9% | 6% | 100% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 98.4% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 19% | 4.7% | 99.7% | 19% | 10% | 98.7% | 4.1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 34% | 15% | 98.2% | 25% | 6% | 98.9% | 13% | 9% | 93% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 49% | 15% | 93% | 42% | 17% | 94% | 25% | 12% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 59 | 59% | 10% | 87% | 58% | 16% | 84% | 32% | 7% | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 76% | 17% | 72% | 67% | 10% | 78% | 50% | 19% | 57% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 40% |
| 57 | 87% | 11% | 55% | 82% | 15% | 56% | 65% | 15% | 34% | 1.3% | < 1% | - |
| 56 | 92% | 5% | 43% | 91% | 9% | 36% | 74% | 9% | 18% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 7% |
| 55 | 97.8% | 6% | 30% | 95.1% | 3.9% | 23% | 87% | 13% | 9% | 21% | 16% | 1.6% |
| 54 | 100% | 2.2% | 24% | 98.7% | 3.7% | 6% | 94% | 7% | 1.5% | 24% | 2.9% | < 1% |
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