Extremely tight in title race. On average both Liverpool and Man City finish on 84.8 points, with Arsenal lagging 1.4 points behind. Every match is important now and as you can see in the tables below every upcoming match has a >20% swing, that is, the difference between a a win and a loss affects the chances with more than 20%.
Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Chelsea: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Cold Teams
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Sheffield United: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected
Luton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected
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| Average Simulated
Season | Probabilities |
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 67 | Liverpool | 84.8 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.99% | 38% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 67 | Man City | 84.8 | +50 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 68 | Arsenal | 83.4 | +55 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.97% | 26% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 59 | Aston Villa | 69.7 | +19 | < 1% | 99.98% | 99.76% | 95.3% | 54% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 88% |
| 57 | Tottenham | 68.9 | +19 | < 1% | 99.95% | 99.44% | 93% | 44% | < 1% | < 1% | 16% | 84% |
| 48 | Man United | 61.9 | +3 | < 1% | 88% | 71% | 11% | 1.9% | < 1% | 9% | 76% | 9% |
| 44 | Newcastle | 56.2 | +14 | < 1% | 44% | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25% | 34% | < 1% |
| 40 | Chelsea | 54.6 | +3 | < 1% | 26% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 30% | < 1% |
| 45 | West Ham | 54.2 | -6 | < 1% | 16% | 2.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 16% | 11% | 5% |
| 43 | Brighton | 53.5 | +4 | < 1% | 17% | 4.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 16% | 12% | < 1% |
| 42 | Wolves | 52.6 | -5 | < 1% | 8% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 6% | < 1% |
| 41 | Bournemouth | 49.8 | -13 | < 1% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.4% | 1.5% | < 1% |
| 39 | Fulham | 47.8 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 30 | Crystal Palace | 38.3 | -21 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 28 | Brentford | 37.6 | -13 | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Everton | 37.1 | -11 | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Forest | 32.2 | -18 | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 22 | Luton | 28.8 | -27 | 78% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 19 | Burnley | 26.2 | -38 | 93% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 22.5 | -59 | 98.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Liverpool | 100% | 60% | 14% |
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| Man City | 86% | 41% | 7% |
| 25% | 7% |
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| Arsenal | 35% | 3.2% |
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| Aston Villa | 32% | < 1% |
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| Tottenham | < 1% |
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| Man United | 19% |
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| Chelsea | 11% |
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| West Ham | 5% |
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Important matches for title race
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| Man United vs Liverpool (6.4%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Liverpool | 24% | 33% | 50% |
| Man City | 44% | 39% | 29% |
| Arsenal | 31% | 28% | 20% |
| Brighton vs Arsenal (5.3%) | Home Win (29%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (47%) |
| Arsenal | 14% | 20% | 36% |
| Man City | 43% | 40% | 31% |
| Liverpool | 43% | 40% | 33% |
| Crystal Palace vs Man City (5.2%) | Home Win (16%) | Draw (19%) | Away Win (65%) |
| Man City | 19% | 26% | 44% |
| Liverpool | 48% | 44% | 34% |
| Arsenal | 34% | 30% | 23% |
| Liverpool vs Sheffield United (2.3%) | Home Win (85%) | Draw (10%) | Away Win (5%) |
| Liverpool | 40% | 24% | 18% |
| Man City | 35% | 44% | 48% |
| Arsenal | 25% | 32% | 34% |
| Liverpool | Man City | Arsenal |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 92 | 3.0% | 2.3% | 99.3% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99% |
| 91 | 6% | 2.7% | 97% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 9% | 3.4% | 92% | 4.2% | < 1% | - | 3.8% | 2.9% | 90% |
| 89 | 17% | 8% | 84% | 13% | 9% | 82% | 7% | 3.4% | 86% |
| 88 | 24% | 7% | 73% | 21% | 8% | 72% | 11% | 3.9% | 71% |
| 87 | 33% | 9% | 60% | 30% | 8% | 58% | 20% | 9% | 59% |
| 86 | 44% | 11% | 45% | 44% | 15% | 45% | 28% | 8% | 46% |
| 85 | 54% | 10% | 31% | 55% | 11% | 32% | 38% | 10% | 30% |
| 84 | 64% | 10% | 20% | 66% | 11% | 21% | 50% | 12% | 20% |
| 83 | 74% | 10% | 11% | 77% | 11% | 12% | 60% | 10% | 12% |
| 82 | 82% | 7% | 6% | 84% | 7% | 7% | 71% | 10% | 6% |
| 81 | 88% | 6% | 2.6% | 90% | 6% | 3.1% | 80% | 9% | 2.8% |
| 80 | 92% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 94% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 86% | 6% | 1.2% |
| 79 | 95.5% | 3.0% | < 1% | 96.7% | 2.5% | < 1% | 91% | 5% | < 1% |
| 78 | 97.5% | 2.0% | < 1% | 98.3% | 1.6% | < 1% | 95.1% | 3.7% | < 1% |
| 77 | 98.7% | 1.2% | < 1% | 99.20% | < 1% | < 1% | 97.2% | 2.2% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for CL race
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| Chelsea vs Man United (2.7%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Man United | 5.0% | 8% | 16% |
| Tottenham | 86% | 84% | 80% |
| Aston Villa | 89% | 88% | 85% |
| Man United vs Liverpool (2.5%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Man United | 15% | 7% | 4.9% |
| Tottenham | 80% | 84% | 86% |
| Aston Villa | 85% | 89% | 89% |
| Tottenham vs Forest (2.4%) | Home Win (69%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Tottenham | 87% | 78% | 73% |
| Man United | 7% | 11% | 14% |
| Aston Villa | 86% | 90% | 92% |
| Newcastle | < 1% | 1.1% | 1.5% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | Man United | West Ham |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 77 | 2.3% | 1.4% | 99.8% | 1.3% | < 1% | 99.8% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 76 | 3.6% | 1.3% | 99.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 99.6% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 75 | 8% | 4.7% | 99.1% | 6% | 2.5% | 99.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 74 | 14% | 5% | 98.6% | 9% | 3.4% | 98.2% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 73 | 20% | 6% | 97.4% | 16% | 7% | 97.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 90% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 72 | 31% | 11% | 96.1% | 23% | 7% | 95.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 85% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 71 | 41% | 10% | 94% | 32% | 9% | 93% | 1.0% | < 1% | 79% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 70 | 52% | 11% | 92% | 44% | 12% | 91% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 69% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 69 | 65% | 13% | 89% | 54% | 10% | 88% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 56% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 68 | 74% | 10% | 86% | 65% | 11% | 85% | 7% | 2.9% | 44% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 67 | 83% | 8% | 82% | 76% | 11% | 81% | 12% | 5.0% | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 66 | 90% | 7% | 76% | 83% | 8% | 75% | 18% | 5% | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | 25% |
| 65 | 94% | 4.2% | 69% | 90% | 6% | 68% | 25% | 7% | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 97.0% | 2.8% | 61% | 94% | 4.7% | 60% | 34% | 9% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% |
| 63 | 98.8% | 1.8% | 49% | 96.9% | 2.6% | 49% | 44% | 9% | 3.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
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| Fulham vs Newcastle (4.7%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| Newcastle | 25% | 32% | 48% |
| Chelsea | 33% | 31% | 27% |
| Brighton | 14% | 13% | 10% |
| Wolves vs West Ham (4.4%) | Home Win (44%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| Wolves | 10% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| West Ham | 10% | 14% | 25% |
| Chelsea vs Man United (4.2%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Chelsea | 38% | 26% | 21% |
| Man United | 79% | 86% | 93% |
| Brighton vs Arsenal (2.5%) | Home Win (29%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (47%) |
| Brighton | 21% | 11% | 8% |
| Sheffield United vs Chelsea (2.1%) | Home Win (27%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (50%) |
| Chelsea | 22% | 26% | 37% |
| Newcastle | 37% | 36% | 32% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | West Ham | Brighton | Wolves | Bournemouth |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 71 | 1.0% | < 1% | 99.7% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 70 | 2.5% | 1.5% | 99.4% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 69 | 4.3% | 1.8% | 99.2% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 68 | 7% | 2.9% | 98.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 67 | 12% | 5.0% | 98.5% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 66 | 18% | 5% | 98.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 25% | 7% | 97.8% | 1.2% | < 1% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 93% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 34% | 9% | 97.1% | 2.0% | < 1% | 92% | 1.3% | < 1% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | 90% | < 1% | < 1% | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | 87% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 44% | 9% | 96.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 89% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 92% | < 1% | < 1% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | 89% | < 1% | < 1% | 82% | < 1% | < 1% | 86% |
| 62 | 54% | 10% | 95% | 8% | 3.0% | 85% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 88% | 1.1% | < 1% | 79% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 84% | < 1% | < 1% | 80% | < 1% | < 1% | 78% |
| 61 | 64% | 10% | 92% | 12% | 4.3% | 80% | 7% | 2.7% | 83% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 72% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 78% | 1.1% | < 1% | 69% | < 1% | < 1% | 74% |
| 60 | 73% | 9% | 86% | 19% | 7% | 73% | 11% | 4.1% | 75% | 6% | 2.7% | 61% | 5% | 2.1% | 70% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 59% | < 1% | < 1% | 63% |
| 59 | 81% | 8% | 78% | 27% | 7% | 65% | 17% | 6% | 66% | 9% | 3.3% | 51% | 9% | 4.1% | 57% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 47% | < 1% | < 1% | 50% |
| 58 | 88% | 7% | 66% | 36% | 9% | 54% | 24% | 7% | 54% | 17% | 8% | 37% | 14% | 4.6% | 44% | 8% | 4.2% | 33% | 1.5% | < 1% | 37% |
| 57 | 92% | 4.5% | 52% | 47% | 11% | 39% | 32% | 8% | 39% | 24% | 8% | 25% | 20% | 6% | 29% | 13% | 4.9% | 19% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 20% |
| 56 | 95.6% | 3.3% | 38% | 57% | 10% | 25% | 42% | 9% | 27% | 34% | 9% | 16% | 29% | 9% | 16% | 19% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 2.3% | 9% |
| 55 | 97.7% | 2.1% | 27% | 68% | 10% | 14% | 51% | 9% | 19% | 47% | 13% | 9% | 38% | 9% | 7% | 30% | 10% | 4.0% | 9% | 3.4% | 4% |
| 54 | 98.9% | 1.1% | 21% | 77% | 10% | 6% | 61% | 10% | 14% | 58% | 11% | 6% | 49% | 10% | 2.5% | 39% | 10% | 1.2% | 15% | 6% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
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| Wolves vs West Ham (10%) | Home Win (44%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| West Ham | 21% | 31% | 49% |
| Wolves | 27% | 12% | 6% |
| Fulham vs Newcastle (5.8%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| Newcastle | 49% | 59% | 75% |
| Fulham | 3.2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Chelsea vs Man United (4.9%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Chelsea | 58% | 43% | 36% |
| Man United | 91% | 95% | 98.3% |
| Brighton vs Arsenal (4.2%) | Home Win (29%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (47%) |
| Brighton | 43% | 27% | 20% |
| Newcastle | 56% | 60% | 62% |
| Sheffield United vs Chelsea (3.3%) | Home Win (27%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (50%) |
| Chelsea | 36% | 42% | 57% |
| Newcastle | 63% | 61% | 58% |
| Wolves | 19% | 18% | 15% |
| West Ham | 35% | 33% | 30% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | West Ham | Brighton | Wolves | Bournemouth | Fulham |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 65 | 25% | 7% | 99.98% | 1.2% | < 1% | 99.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 34% | 9% | 99.95% | 2.0% | < 1% | 99.8% | 1.3% | < 1% | 99.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 44% | 9% | 99.8% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 99.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 99.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 54% | 10% | 99.7% | 8% | 3.0% | 98.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 99.3% | 1.1% | < 1% | 97% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 64% | 10% | 99.2% | 12% | 4.3% | 98.0% | 7% | 2.7% | 98.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 96% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 97% | 1.1% | < 1% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 73% | 9% | 98.2% | 19% | 7% | 96.5% | 11% | 4.1% | 96.7% | 6% | 2.7% | 92% | 5% | 2.1% | 95% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | 92% | < 1% | < 1% | 94% |
| 59 | 81% | 8% | 95.8% | 27% | 7% | 94% | 17% | 6% | 93% | 9% | 3.3% | 87% | 9% | 4.1% | 90% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 85% | < 1% | < 1% | 86% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 88% | 7% | 91% | 36% | 9% | 89% | 24% | 7% | 88% | 17% | 8% | 77% | 14% | 4.6% | 83% | 8% | 4.2% | 74% | 1.5% | < 1% | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | 80% |
| 57 | 92% | 4.5% | 82% | 47% | 11% | 80% | 32% | 8% | 78% | 24% | 8% | 63% | 20% | 6% | 70% | 13% | 4.9% | 59% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 59% | < 1% | < 1% | 65% |
| 56 | 95.6% | 3.3% | 67% | 57% | 10% | 68% | 42% | 9% | 63% | 34% | 9% | 48% | 29% | 9% | 53% | 19% | 6% | 42% | 6% | 2.3% | 40% | 1.0% | < 1% | 49% |
| 55 | 97.7% | 2.1% | 49% | 68% | 10% | 51% | 51% | 9% | 47% | 47% | 13% | 30% | 38% | 9% | 36% | 30% | 10% | 25% | 9% | 3.4% | 23% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 30% |
| 54 | 98.9% | 1.1% | 34% | 77% | 10% | 31% | 61% | 10% | 31% | 58% | 11% | 17% | 49% | 10% | 19% | 39% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 6% | 9% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 13% |
| 53 | 99.51% | < 1% | 24% | 84% | 7% | 16% | 70% | 9% | 20% | 69% | 11% | 10% | 60% | 11% | 8% | 50% | 11% | 4.5% | 22% | 7% | 3.1% | 8% | 3.0% | 5% |
| 52 | 99.82% | < 1% | 22% | 90% | 6% | 6% | 78% | 8% | 14% | 80% | 11% | 6% | 69% | 10% | 2.7% | 63% | 13% | 1.2% | 30% | 9% | < 1% | 14% | 6% | 1.3% |
| 51 | 99.93% | < 1% | 21% | 94% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 85% | 7% | 12% | 87% | 7% | 5% | 78% | 9% | < 1% | 73% | 10% | < 1% | 42% | 11% | < 1% | 21% | 7% | < 1% |
| 50 | 99.98% | < 1% | 19% | 97.0% | 2.5% | < 1% | 90% | 5% | 12% | 93% | 5% | 5% | 86% | 8% | < 1% | 81% | 9% | < 1% | 52% | 10% | < 1% | 30% | 8% | < 1% |
| 49 | >99.99% | < 1% | 17% | 98.6% | 1.6% | < 1% | 94% | 3.8% | 11% | 96.8% | 4.0% | 5% | 91% | 5% | < 1% | 89% | 8% | < 1% | 63% | 11% | < 1% | 42% | 12% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for avoiding relegation
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| Luton vs Bournemouth (6.7%) | Home Win (38%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (38%) |
| Luton | 34% | 18% | 12% |
| Forest | 69% | 79% | 82% |
| Everton | 95.6% | 97.5% | 98.1% |
| Everton vs Burnley (4%) | Home Win (58%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Burnley | 3.6% | 6% | 16% |
| Everton | 98.9% | 96.3% | 92% |
| Tottenham vs Forest (3.4%) | Home Win (69%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Forest | 72% | 80% | 91% |
| Luton | 24% | 19% | 13% |
| Burnley | 8% | 6% | 3.3% |
| Sheffield United | Burnley | Luton | Forest | Everton | Brentford |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 40 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 1.7% | < 1% | 100% | 24% | 7% | 100% | 28% | 8% | 100% |
| 39 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 100% | 35% | 11% | 100% | 38% | 10% | 100% |
| 38 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.8% | 6% | 3.2% | >99.99% | 45% | 10% | 100% | 51% | 13% | 100% |
| 37 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | 1.0% | < 1% | 99% | 10% | 3.9% | 99.9% | 56% | 11% | >99.99% | 61% | 11% | >99.99% |
| 36 | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | 1.7% | < 1% | 98% | 15% | 5% | 99.8% | 68% | 12% | 99.96% | 72% | 10% | 99.94% |
| 35 | < 1% | < 1% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | 93% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 92% | 25% | 9% | 99.3% | 77% | 9% | 99.7% | 82% | 10% | 99.6% |
| 34 | < 1% | < 1% | 88% | 1.6% | < 1% | 83% | 8% | 3.3% | 83% | 34% | 9% | 97.5% | 85% | 8% | 98.7% | 89% | 7% | 98.6% |
| 33 | < 1% | < 1% | 72% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 69% | 12% | 4.1% | 69% | 44% | 11% | 94% | 91% | 6% | 95.2% | 93% | 4.9% | 95.9% |
| 32 | < 1% | < 1% | 50% | 6% | 3.1% | 48% | 20% | 9% | 52% | 58% | 14% | 87% | 95% | 3.8% | 89% | 97.1% | 3.6% | 89% |
| 31 | 1.4% | < 1% | 32% | 10% | 3.9% | 30% | 29% | 9% | 35% | 69% | 11% | 75% | 97.4% | 2.5% | 75% | 98.7% | 1.6% | 76% |
| 30 | 2.5% | 1.1% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 17% | 39% | 10% | 21% | 79% | 10% | 62% | 98.9% | 1.6% | 54% | 99.50% | < 1% | 60% |
| 29 | 4.3% | 1.8% | 6% | 24% | 9% | 7% | 54% | 14% | 11% | 88% | 10% | 46% | 99.56% | < 1% | 36% | 99.91% | < 1% | 39% |
| 28 | 8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 34% | 9% | 2.5% | 65% | 12% | 4.7% | 94% | 6% | 28% | 99.85% | < 1% | 16% | 100% | < 1% | 17% |
| 27 | 12% | 4.3% | < 1% | 44% | 10% | < 1% | 75% | 10% | 1.6% | 96.9% | 3.3% | 17% | 99.98% | < 1% | 7% | 100% | < 1% | - |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 82% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 70% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Sixth team | 100% | 96.7% | < 1% |
| Seventh team | 97.7% | 73% | < 1% |
| Eighth team | 75% | 5% | < 1% |
Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 31 - 34
Coming Matches
| Home |
| Draw |
| Away |
| Liverpool | 85% | 10% | 5% | Sheffield United |
| Chelsea | 46% | 24% | 30% | Man United |
| Crystal Palace | 16% | 19% | 65% | Man City |
| Aston Villa | 62% | 20% | 18% | Brentford |
| Everton | 58% | 21% | 21% | Burnley |
| Luton | 38% | 24% | 38% | Bournemouth |
| Wolves | 44% | 24% | 32% | West Ham |
| Fulham | 43% | 24% | 32% | Newcastle |
| Brighton | 29% | 24% | 47% | Arsenal |
| Man United | 32% | 24% | 44% | Liverpool |
| Sheffield United | 27% | 23% | 50% | Chelsea |
| Tottenham | 69% | 18% | 14% | Forest |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 67% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 10% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 8% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 4.9% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 4.4% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 3.2% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 71% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 17% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 6% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 2.2% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 1.5% | Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United |
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