PL: Spurs now favourites to finish fourth (56%)
PL: Spurs now favourites to finish fourth (56%)
Tottenham finish top 4 in 56% whereas Aston Villa have slipped down to only 40%. Both are likely to qualify for CL (81% and 71%, respectively) as PL is likely to get a fifth slot (81%). The main challenger is Man United with a 17% probability to reach PL, as detailed below.
Hot Teams
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Cold Teams
West Ham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Bournemouth: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
Aston Villa: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 52 | Man City | 84.9 | +52 | < 1% | 100% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.92% | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.99% |
| 54 | Liverpool | 81.5 | +46 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.97% | 99.56% | 27% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.91% |
| 52 | Arsenal | 78.1 | +42 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.97% | 99.72% | 97.8% | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.41% |
| 47 | Tottenham | 69.3 | +20 | < 1% | 99.0% | 96.2% | 87% | 56% | < 1% | 1.2% | 17% | 81% |
| 46 | Aston Villa | 67.6 | +21 | < 1% | 97.7% | 93% | 79% | 40% | < 1% | 1.6% | 26% | 71% |
| 41 | Man United | 61.6 | +2 | < 1% | 76% | 54% | 20% | 4.8% | < 1% | 12% | 54% | 17% |
| 36 | Newcastle | 58.0 | +16 | < 1% | 52% | 27% | 8% | 1.7% | < 1% | 15% | 42% | 7% |
| 36 | West Ham | 56.5 | -4 | < 1% | 33% | 14% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 22% | 10% |
| 35 | Brighton | 55.1 | +4 | < 1% | 26% | 11% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 19% | 9% |
| 31 | Chelsea | 51.8 | -1 | < 1% | 10% | 3.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 34% | 9% | < 1% |
| 32 | Wolves | 50.0 | -5 | < 1% | 4.0% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | < 1% |
| 27 | Bournemouth | 45.9 | -16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | < 1% |
| 29 | Fulham | 45.2 | -11 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Brentford | 43.8 | -9 | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 24 | Crystal Palace | 42.5 | -18 | 4.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 19 | Everton | 37.2 | -8 | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Forest | 35.8 | -22 | 33% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Luton | 34.0 | -25 | 51% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Burnley | 27.7 | -33 | 92% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 13 | Sheffield United | 24.8 | -51 | 98.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 89% | 51% | 12% | 33% | 12% | ||
| Liverpool | 89% | 50% | 14% | 1.5% | 6% | ||
| Arsenal | 17% | < 1% | |||||
| Tottenham | < 1% | ||||||
| Aston Villa | 34% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Man United | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Newcastle | 7% | ||||||
| West Ham | 7% | ||||||
| Brighton | 9% | < 1% | |||||
| Chelsea | 31% | < 1% | |||||
| Wolves | 1.8% | ||||||
| Bournemouth | 1.7% | ||||||
| Forest | < 1% | ||||||
| Luton | < 1% |
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 81% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 77% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 74% | 71% |
| Sixth team | 99.17% | 96.7% | 1.3% |
| Seventh team | 91% | 71% | 2.4% |
| Eighth team | 60% | 9% | 3.0% |
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Crystal Palace | 43% | 24% | 33% | Chelsea |
| Brentford | 26% | 23% | 51% | Liverpool |
| Newcastle | 60% | 21% | 19% | Bournemouth |
| Forest | 34% | 24% | 42% | West Ham |
| Tottenham | 61% | 20% | 18% | Wolves |
| Burnley | 21% | 21% | 57% | Arsenal |
| Fulham | 35% | 24% | 41% | Aston Villa |
| Man City | 77% | 14% | 9% | Chelsea |
| Sheffield United | 26% | 23% | 51% | Brighton |
| Luton | 31% | 24% | 45% | Man United |
| Everton | 50% | 23% | 27% | Crystal Palace |
| 45% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 9% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 8% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham |
| 7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 4.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 4.4% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 4.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.1% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham |
| 2.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 1.9% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 43% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 26% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 15% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 3.6% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 3.1% | Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United |
| 2.1% | Everton, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 1.3% | Everton, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 1.3% | Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United |
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