PL: Palace and Wolves with the weakest start of season
PL: Palace and Wolves with the weakest start of season
Hot Teams
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Chelsea: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Aston Villa: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Newcastle: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.0 more than expected
Cold Teams
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Man United: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected
Everton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 17 | Man City | 87.4 | +58 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.98% | 99.89% | 71% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.98% |
| 17 | Arsenal | 80.7 | +44 | < 1% | 99.94% | 99.82% | 99.44% | 98.1% | 20% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.39% |
| 18 | Liverpool | 76.8 | +38 | < 1% | 99.69% | 99.16% | 97.7% | 94% | 9% | < 1% | 2.0% | 97.6% |
| 14 | Chelsea | 65.6 | +22 | < 1% | 89% | 81% | 68% | 47% | < 1% | 3.9% | 25% | 66% |
| 12 | Newcastle | 60.7 | +10 | < 1% | 70% | 55% | 37% | 19% | < 1% | 12% | 31% | 36% |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 60.7 | +9 | < 1% | 69% | 55% | 37% | 18% | < 1% | 12% | 29% | 37% |
| 10 | Tottenham | 59.6 | +17 | < 1% | 66% | 51% | 33% | 16% | < 1% | 10% | 25% | 42% |
| 12 | Brighton | 52.6 | -1 | < 1% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 2.4% | < 1% | 12% | 16% | 7% |
| 11 | Fulham | 52.3 | -1 | < 1% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 2.3% | < 1% | 10% | 16% | 6% |
| 8 | Man United | 52.1 | -2 | < 1% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 2.0% | < 1% | 12% | 14% | 13% |
| 10 | Brentford | 49.0 | -7 | 2.6% | 12% | 7% | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | 9% | 2.7% |
| 8 | West Ham | 48.4 | -6 | 3.0% | 10% | 5% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | 8% | 2.1% |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 45.8 | -11 | 6% | 5% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | < 1% |
| 10 | Forest | 44.6 | -14 | 9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.7% | 6% | < 1% |
| 3 | Crystal Palace | 43.5 | -10 | 11% | 2.9% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | < 1% |
| 5 | Everton | 40.6 | -21 | 22% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.2% | < 1% |
| 6 | Leicester | 38.3 | -22 | 33% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.8% | < 1% |
| 1 | Wolves | 36.1 | -26 | 47% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 4 | Ipswich | 31.8 | -35 | 73% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 1 | Southampton | 27.0 | -41 | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 90% | 53% | 16% | 1.7% | 28% | 6% | 1.7% |
| Arsenal | 55% | 14% | 1.7% | < 1% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Liverpool | 35% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Chelsea | 36% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Newcastle | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Aston Villa | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Tottenham | 21% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Brighton | 2.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| Fulham | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Man United | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| Brentford | 4.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |||
| West Ham | 1.5% | ||||||
| Bournemouth | < 1% | ||||||
| Forest | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| Crystal Palace | 3.9% | < 1% | |||||
| Everton | < 1% | ||||||
| Leicester | 1.8% | < 1% | |||||
| Wolves | < 1% | ||||||
| Ipswich | < 1% | ||||||
| Southampton | 1.0% | < 1% |
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Fifth team | >99.99% | >99.99% | 92% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 68% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 86% | 79% |
| Sixth team | 99.63% | 97.7% | 3.7% |
| Seventh team | 94% | 70% | 3.3% |
| Eighth team | 66% | 11% | 2.8% |
| 14% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 13% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 13% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 5% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham |
| 5% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 4.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 3.1% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.1% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 2.8% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham |
| 2.2% | Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 25% | Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves |
| 16% | Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton |
| 10% | Everton, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 6% | Leicester, Southampton, Wolves |
| 4.7% | Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 3.9% | Everton, Southampton, Wolves |
| 3.7% | Forest, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 2.7% | Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton |
| 2.6% | Everton, Leicester, Southampton |
| 2.0% | Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves |
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