PL: Man City remains in pole position with 68% chance to win the league.
Man City remains in pole position with 68% chance to win the league.
Titles
|
| Average Simulated
Season | Probabilities |
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 76 | Man City | 87.0 | +55 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 77 | Arsenal | 84.7 | +60 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 30% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 74 | Liverpool | 81.5 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99.98% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.98% |
| 66 | Aston Villa | 71.9 | +22 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 99.95% | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 82% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 68.5 | +16 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.83% | 96.8% | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | 78% | 22% |
| 53 | Man United | 60.8 | +3 | < 1% | 90% | 64% | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | 73% | < 1% |
| 50 | Newcastle | 58.1 | +17 | < 1% | 73% | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 50% | 24% | < 1% |
| 47 | Chelsea | 55.7 | +5 | < 1% | 30% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 24% | 7% | < 1% |
| 48 | West Ham | 52.9 | -10 | < 1% | 3.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.0% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Brighton | 51.0 | -2 | < 1% | 3.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 45 | Bournemouth | 49.4 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Wolves | 47.8 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Fulham | 47.3 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Crystal Palace | 43.5 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 35 | Everton | 40.6 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 35 | Brentford | 40.3 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Forest | 30.3 | -20 | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Luton | 28.9 | -31 | 72% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 25.1 | -38 | 95.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 21.0 | -59 | 99.82% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Important matches for title race
|
| Tottenham vs Arsenal (13.2%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (40%) |
| Arsenal | 16% | 23% | 48% |
| Man City | 81% | 74% | 51% |
| Forest vs Man City (10%) | Home Win (13%) | Draw (17%) | Away Win (70%) |
| Man City | 43% | 53% | 76% |
| Arsenal | 52% | 43% | 23% |
| Liverpool | 5% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Man City | Arsenal | Liverpool |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 13% | 13% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 13% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 31% | 18% | 91% | 9% | 9% | 86% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 88 | 47% | 16% | 91% | 9% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 87 | 56% | 10% | 76% | 24% | 15% | 53% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 86 | 73% | 17% | 57% | 43% | 18% | 43% | 9% | 9% | 16% |
| 85 | 83% | 10% | 45% | 51% | 8% | 24% | 9% | < 1% | - |
| 84 | 89% | 6% | 27% | 70% | 19% | 15% | 23% | 14% | 3.3% |
| 83 | 95.1% | 6% | 13% | 83% | 13% | 8% | 40% | 17% | < 1% |
| 82 | 97.6% | 2.5% | 6% | 89% | 6% | 3.1% | 48% | 8% | < 1% |
| 81 | 98.9% | 1.3% | 2% | 95.8% | 6% | 1.3% | 67% | 19% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for CL race
|
| Tottenham vs Arsenal (7.3%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (40%) |
| Aston Villa | 70% | 85% | 90% |
| Tottenham | 34% | 19% | 13% |
| Aston Villa vs Chelsea (7.1%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Aston Villa | 89% | 77% | 68% |
| Tottenham | 14% | 27% | 36% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 78 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 99.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% |
| 77 | 2.6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 76 | 9% | 6% | 99.5% | 1.1% | < 1% | 94% |
| 75 | 19% | 10% | 98.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 85% |
| 74 | 24% | 6% | 96.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 78% |
| 73 | 41% | 17% | 94% | 10% | 6% | 66% |
| 72 | 57% | 15% | 88% | 17% | 7% | 51% |
| 71 | 67% | 10% | 82% | 24% | 7% | 39% |
| 70 | 82% | 15% | 73% | 38% | 14% | 26% |
| 69 | 91% | 9% | 60% | 50% | 12% | 16% |
| 68 | 95% | 4.1% | 49% | 61% | 11% | 10% |
| 67 | 98.6% | 3.9% | 37% | 75% | 14% | 6% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
|
| Man United vs Burnley (4.3%) | Home Win (69%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Man United | 78% | 65% | 56% |
| Newcastle | 20% | 29% | 35% |
| Chelsea | 5% | 9% | 11% |
| Newcastle vs Sheffield United (2.9%) | Home Win (73%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (11%) |
| Newcastle | 28% | 16% | 11% |
| Man United | 70% | 79% | 82% |
| Chelsea | 6% | 8% | 10% |
| Aston Villa vs Chelsea (2.5%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Chelsea | 3.5% | 6% | 15% |
| Man United | 75% | 73% | 68% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 68 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 67 | 1.4% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 66 | 5% | 4.0% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 12% | 6% | 99.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | 79% |
| 64 | 16% | 4.4% | 99.8% | 1.6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 29% | 13% | 96.3% | 6% | 4.4% | 75% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 64% |
| 62 | 42% | 12% | 89% | 13% | 7% | 59% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 49% |
| 61 | 52% | 10% | 85% | 18% | 4.7% | 58% | 6% | 2.0% | 38% |
| 60 | 68% | 16% | 69% | 32% | 14% | 40% | 12% | 7% | 25% |
| 59 | 79% | 11% | 55% | 45% | 13% | 23% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
| 58 | 86% | 7% | 45% | 56% | 10% | 17% | 27% | 8% | 7% |
| 57 | 94% | 7% | 33% | 71% | 16% | 8% | 41% | 13% | 3.0% |
| 56 | 97.2% | 3.5% | 27% | 82% | 10% | 3.3% | 52% | 11% | 1.1% |
| 55 | 98.8% | 1.5% | 25% | 89% | 7% | 1.9% | 63% | 11% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
|
| Aston Villa vs Chelsea (7%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Chelsea | 22% | 30% | 50% |
| Newcastle | 79% | 73% | 61% |
| Man United | 94% | 92% | 88% |
| Newcastle vs Sheffield United (6.2%) | Home Win (73%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (11%) |
| Newcastle | 80% | 61% | 50% |
| Chelsea | 26% | 38% | 44% |
| West Ham | 3.3% | 6% | 8% |
| West Ham vs Liverpool (2.7%) | Home Win (30%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (46%) |
| West Ham | 10% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Newcastle | 70% | 74% | 75% |
| Man United vs Burnley (2.6%) | Home Win (69%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Man United | 95.5% | 88% | 82% |
| Chelsea | 28% | 33% | 36% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | West Ham | Brighton |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 65 | 12% | 6% | >99.99% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.9% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 16% | 4.4% | 100% | 1.6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 29% | 13% | 99.96% | 6% | 4.4% | 99.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 42% | 12% | 99.6% | 13% | 7% | 99.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 52% | 10% | 99.3% | 18% | 4.7% | 98.5% | 6% | 2.0% | 92% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 68% | 16% | 96.9% | 32% | 14% | 96.6% | 12% | 7% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | 77% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 59 | 79% | 11% | 92% | 45% | 13% | 91% | 20% | 7% | 69% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 83% |
| 58 | 86% | 7% | 87% | 56% | 10% | 84% | 27% | 8% | 57% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 47% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 57 | 94% | 7% | 72% | 71% | 16% | 73% | 41% | 13% | 38% | 9% | 6% | 26% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 46% |
| 56 | 97.2% | 3.5% | 57% | 82% | 10% | 53% | 52% | 11% | 22% | 11% | 2.2% | 14% | 7% | 4.1% | 18% |
| 55 | 98.8% | 1.5% | 47% | 89% | 7% | 39% | 63% | 11% | 13% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 11% | 3.1% | 11% |
| 54 | 99.75% | < 1% | 32% | 95% | 6% | 21% | 76% | 13% | 5% | 42% | 18% | 1.4% | 21% | 10% | 2.8% |
| 53 | 100% | < 1% | 28% | 97.9% | 2.9% | 7% | 84% | 8% | 1.8% | 50% | 8% | < 1% | 31% | 10% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for avoiding relegation
|
| Wolves vs Luton (9.1%) | Home Win (64%) | Draw (19%) | Away Win (16%) |
| Luton | 20% | 30% | 54% |
| Forest | 74% | 66% | 44% |
| Forest vs Man City (6.2%) | Home Win (13%) | Draw (17%) | Away Win (70%) |
| Forest | 89% | 73% | 63% |
| Luton | 9% | 24% | 32% |
| Burnley | 1.1% | 3.5% | 5% |
| Sheffield United vs Burnley (2.5%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Burnley | 1.2% | 2.9% | 9% |
| Forest | 70% | 69% | 65% |
| Man United vs Burnley (2.2%) | Home Win (69%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Burnley | 2.3% | 4.9% | 13% |
| Forest | 69% | 67% | 62% |
| Burnley | Luton | Forest |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 36 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 2.2% | 1.7% | 99.8% |
| 35 | < 1% | < 1% | 96% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 93% | 7% | 4.4% | 99.7% |
| 34 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 4.6% | 3.2% | 91% | 9% | 2.2% | 98.7% |
| 33 | < 1% | < 1% | 87% | 6% | 1.5% | 82% | 20% | 11% | 95.4% |
| 32 | 1.5% | 1.1% | 67% | 15% | 9% | 66% | 33% | 14% | 94% |
| 31 | 2.2% | < 1% | 56% | 27% | 13% | 57% | 42% | 9% | 85% |
| 30 | 6% | 3.9% | 35% | 35% | 8% | 37% | 61% | 19% | 71% |
| 29 | 12% | 6% | 15% | 55% | 20% | 21% | 77% | 16% | 60% |
| 28 | 17% | 4.9% | 7% | 73% | 18% | 12% | 84% | 7% | 39% |
| 27 | 30% | 13% | 1.5% | 81% | 8% | 3.6% | 95% | 10% | 20% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 3.9% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 77% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 100% | 99.98% |
| Sixth team | 100% | 92% | < 1% |
| Seventh team | 97.6% | 10% | < 1% |
| Eighth team | 6% | 2.2% | < 1% |
Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 30 - 32
Coming Matches
| Home |
| Draw |
| Away |
| Sheffield United | 43% | 24% | 33% | Burnley |
| West Ham | 30% | 24% | 46% | Liverpool |
| Man United | 69% | 18% | 14% | Burnley |
| Newcastle | 73% | 16% | 11% | Sheffield United |
| Wolves | 64% | 19% | 16% | Luton |
| Fulham | 54% | 22% | 23% | Crystal Palace |
| Everton | 47% | 24% | 29% | Brentford |
| Aston Villa | 54% | 22% | 23% | Chelsea |
| Tottenham | 36% | 24% | 40% | Arsenal |
| Bournemouth | 42% | 24% | 34% | Brighton |
| Forest | 13% | 17% | 70% | Man City |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 78% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 18% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 68% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 28% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 4.2% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
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