PL: Man City in pole position (85%) before Match Week 38
PL: Man City in pole position (85%) before Match Week 38
Man City are favourites after a 2-0 win in north London. The win also means that Villa clinched a place in next years CL. Tottenham failed clinching the 5th place and need a point on Sunday to clinch the EL slot. If they fail doing that, they have to rely om Chelsea and Newcastle not winning both remaining matches or if Man City win the FA cup. Both Chelsea and Newcastle play tonight in crucial matches for them in the fight for tickets to Europe.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 88 | Man City | 90.5 | +61 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 85% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 86 | Arsenal | 88.3 | +63 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 79 | Liverpool | 81.3 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 68 | Aston Villa | 69.4 | +20 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 63 | Tottenham | 64.9 | +11 | < 1% | 100% | 99.60% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.5% | 98.4% | < 1% |
| 57 | Chelsea | 60.1 | +13 | < 1% | 95% | 50% | 3.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 45% | 40% | < 1% |
| 57 | Newcastle | 59.4 | +21 | < 1% | 87% | 47% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 42% | 37% | < 1% |
| 54 | Man United | 56.9 | -4 | < 1% | 18% | 3.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 25% | < 1% |
| 52 | West Ham | 52.4 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Brighton | 51.0 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Bournemouth | 48.9 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Crystal Palace | 47.3 | -6 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 46.6 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Fulham | 45.5 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Everton | 42.5 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Brentford | 40.5 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Forest | 30.1 | -19 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Luton | 27.3 | -31 | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 24.1 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 18.2 | -64 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Man United vs Newcastle (18.2%) | Home Win (48%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Newcastle | 21% | 36% | 64% |
| Chelsea | 52% | 43% | 17% |
| Brighton vs Chelsea (17.4%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Chelsea | 22% | 40% | 63% |
| Newcastle | 52% | 35% | 19% |
| Tottenham | 99.5% | 99.5% | 96.2% |
| Tottenham | Chelsea | Newcastle | Man United | |||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 63 | 100% | 22% | 93% | 18% | 18% | 76% | 10% | 10% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 100% | < 1% | - | 18% | < 1% | - | 10% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 100% | < 1% | - | 39% | 21% | 58% | 25% | 15% | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 100% | < 1% | - | 70% | 31% | 36% | 54% | 28% | 48% | 16% | 16% | 37% |
| 59 | 100% | < 1% | - | 76% | 5% | 24% | 60% | 6% | 23% | 16% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 100% | < 1% | - | 90% | 15% | 10% | 81% | 21% | 15% | 36% | 20% | 24% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Man United vs Newcastle (16.1%) | Home Win (48%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Newcastle | 64% | 88% | 95.5% |
| Man United | 50% | 24% | 22% |
| Brighton vs Chelsea (5.7%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Chelsea | 77% | 87% | 95.2% |
| Newcastle | 85% | 77% | 72% |
| Chelsea | Newcastle | Man United | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 63 | 18% | 18% | 98.2% | 10% | 10% | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 18% | < 1% | - | 10% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 39% | 21% | 94% | 25% | 15% | 95.9% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 70% | 31% | 88% | 54% | 28% | 91% | 16% | 16% | 80% |
| 59 | 76% | 5% | 82% | 60% | 6% | 85% | 16% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 90% | 15% | 75% | 81% | 21% | 73% | 36% | 20% | 46% |
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