PL: Man City 56% favourites and two wins from 4th consecutive league title
PL: Man City 56% favourites and two wins from 4th consecutive league title
Man City still in pole position. If they win tomorrow and on Sunday, the win the league. If they win by four goals, goal difference might come in to play.
Aston Villa can clinch fourth spot and a place in CL next season, if they win against against Liverpool.
Man United are unlikely reaching top 6 (<4%) so the path to EL goes mainly via winning the FA cup final. The 6th slot will likely be taken by Newcastle or Chelsea; Newcastle travel to Old Trafford and can clinch a top 7 place with a win, and have a very good chance on a place in the one of the European tournaments.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 85 | Man City | 89.3 | +60 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 56% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 86 | Arsenal | 88.4 | +63 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 44% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 78 | Liverpool | 81.5 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 67 | Aston Villa | 69.9 | +20 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.4% | 95.6% |
| 63 | Tottenham | 65.9 | +12 | < 1% | 100% | 99.78% | 97.0% | 4.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | 4.4% |
| 57 | Chelsea | 60.1 | +13 | < 1% | 95% | 50% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 46% | 39% | < 1% |
| 57 | Newcastle | 59.4 | +21 | < 1% | 87% | 47% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 42% | 37% | < 1% |
| 54 | Man United | 56.9 | -4 | < 1% | 18% | 3.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 25% | < 1% |
| 52 | West Ham | 52.4 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Brighton | 51.0 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Bournemouth | 48.9 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Crystal Palace | 47.3 | -6 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 46.6 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Fulham | 45.5 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Everton | 42.5 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Brentford | 40.4 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Forest | 30.1 | -19 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Luton | 27.3 | -31 | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 24.1 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 18.2 | -64 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Man City | Arsenal | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 42% | 42% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 42% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 67% | 25% | 30% | 73% | 73% | 57% |
| 88 | 90% | 23% | 27% | 73% | < 1% | - |
| 87 | 93% | 3.0% | 11% | 89% | 16% | 10% |
| 86 | 98.0% | 5.0% | < 1% | 100% | 11% | 7% |
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Tottenham vs Man City (16.3%) | Home Win (24%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (53%) |
| Aston Villa | 83% | 99.1% | 100% |
| Tottenham | 17% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Aston Villa vs Liverpool (7.5%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Tottenham | < 1% | 5% | 9% |
| Aston Villa | 100% | 95% | 91% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 73 | 16% | 16% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 72 | 16% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 71 | 36% | 20% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 70 | 64% | 29% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 69 | 70% | 6% | 99.8% | 14% | 14% | 30% |
| 68 | 87% | 17% | 86% | 14% | < 1% | - |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Man United vs Newcastle (17.8%) | Home Win (48%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Newcastle | 21% | 36% | 63% |
| Chelsea | 51% | 43% | 17% |
| Brighton vs Chelsea (16.3%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Chelsea | 22% | 40% | 62% |
| Newcastle | 52% | 35% | 19% |
| Chelsea | Newcastle | Man United | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 63 | 18% | 18% | 73% | 10% | 10% | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 18% | < 1% | - | 10% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 39% | 21% | 58% | 26% | 15% | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 71% | 32% | 36% | 54% | 29% | 48% | 16% | 16% | 37% |
| 59 | 76% | 5% | 23% | 60% | 6% | 23% | 16% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 90% | 15% | 10% | 81% | 21% | 15% | 36% | 19% | 24% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Man United vs Newcastle (16.2%) | Home Win (48%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Newcastle | 64% | 88% | 95.7% |
| Man United | 50% | 24% | 22% |
| Brighton vs Chelsea (5.6%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Chelsea | 77% | 87% | 95.1% |
| Newcastle | 85% | 77% | 72% |
| Chelsea | Newcastle | Man United | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 63 | 18% | 18% | 98.0% | 10% | 10% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 18% | < 1% | - | 10% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 39% | 21% | 94% | 26% | 15% | 96.0% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 71% | 32% | 88% | 54% | 29% | 91% | 16% | 16% | 81% |
| 59 | 76% | 5% | 82% | 60% | 6% | 85% | 16% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 90% | 15% | 75% | 81% | 21% | 73% | 36% | 19% | 46% |
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Tottenham vs Man City (59.2%) | Home Win (24%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (53%) |
| Arsenal | 79% | 74% | 15% |
| Man City | 21% | 26% | 85% |
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