PL: Liverpool loses the derby and ground in the title race.
Liverpool are now trailing more than four points behind Man City in the expected points. They win the league in 3.7% of the simulations. They probably need to win the remaining matches and then need some luck, as indicated by the fact that in the simulations when they do win the remaining matches and finish on 86 points, they only win the league in 26%.
Hot Teams
Crystal Palace: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Everton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Cold Teams
Wolves: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 less than expected
Liverpool: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Fulham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Sheffield United: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 less than expected
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| Average Simulated
Season | Probabilities |
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 73 | Man City | 85.9 | +52 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 55% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 77 | Arsenal | 84.7 | +60 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 41% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 74 | Liverpool | 81.5 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99.98% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.98% |
| 66 | Aston Villa | 71.9 | +22 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 99.94% | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 82% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 68.5 | +16 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.82% | 96.8% | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | 77% | 22% |
| 53 | Man United | 60.8 | +3 | < 1% | 89% | 63% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | 72% | < 1% |
| 50 | Newcastle | 58.1 | +17 | < 1% | 72% | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 48% | 24% | < 1% |
| 47 | Chelsea | 55.7 | +5 | < 1% | 29% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | 7% | < 1% |
| 48 | West Ham | 52.9 | -10 | < 1% | 3.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Brighton | 51.8 | +1 | < 1% | 6% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 5% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| 45 | Bournemouth | 49.4 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Wolves | 47.8 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Fulham | 47.3 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Crystal Palace | 43.5 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 35 | Everton | 40.6 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 35 | Brentford | 40.3 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Forest | 30.3 | -20 | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Luton | 28.9 | -31 | 72% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 25.1 | -38 | 95.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 21.0 | -59 | 99.82% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 90% | 42% |
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| 42% |
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| Arsenal | 41% |
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| Liverpool | 100% | 3.7% |
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| Aston Villa | 53% |
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| Man United | 23% |
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Important matches for title race
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| Tottenham vs Arsenal (13%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Arsenal | 25% | 34% | 59% |
| Man City | 69% | 62% | 39% |
| Liverpool | 6% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Brighton vs Man City (11.1%) | Home Win (21%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (58%) |
| Man City | 34% | 44% | 67% |
| Arsenal | 59% | 51% | 30% |
| Liverpool | 7% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| Forest vs Man City (8.8%) | Home Win (13%) | Draw (17%) | Away Win (70%) |
| Man City | 31% | 41% | 64% |
| Arsenal | 62% | 54% | 34% |
| Liverpool | 7% | 5% | 2.7% |
| West Ham vs Liverpool (2.2%) | Home Win (30%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (46%) |
| Liverpool | < 1% | 1.5% | 7% |
| Man City | Arsenal | Liverpool |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 7% | 7% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 7% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 20% | 13% | 91% | 9% | 9% | 92% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 88 | 32% | 12% | 91% | 9% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 87 | 42% | 9% | 76% | 24% | 15% | 67% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 86 | 59% | 17% | 56% | 43% | 18% | 58% | 9% | 9% | 26% |
| 85 | 70% | 11% | 45% | 51% | 8% | 38% | 9% | < 1% | - |
| 84 | 79% | 9% | 26% | 70% | 19% | 28% | 23% | 14% | 7% |
| 83 | 88% | 9% | 12% | 83% | 13% | 16% | 40% | 17% | 2.3% |
| 82 | 93% | 4.9% | 6% | 89% | 6% | 7% | 48% | 8% | < 1% |
| 81 | 96.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 95.8% | 6% | 3.8% | 67% | 19% | < 1% |
| 80 | 98.2% | 2.2% | < 1% | 98.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 80% | 13% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for CL race
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| Tottenham vs Arsenal (7.3%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Aston Villa | 70% | 85% | 90% |
| Tottenham | 34% | 19% | 13% |
| Aston Villa vs Chelsea (7.2%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Aston Villa | 89% | 77% | 68% |
| Tottenham | 15% | 27% | 36% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 78 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 99.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% |
| 77 | 2.6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 76 | 9% | 6% | 99.6% | 1.1% | < 1% | 94% |
| 75 | 19% | 10% | 98.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 86% |
| 74 | 24% | 6% | 96.7% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 79% |
| 73 | 41% | 17% | 94% | 10% | 6% | 66% |
| 72 | 57% | 15% | 88% | 17% | 7% | 51% |
| 71 | 66% | 10% | 81% | 24% | 7% | 39% |
| 70 | 82% | 15% | 73% | 38% | 14% | 26% |
| 69 | 91% | 9% | 60% | 50% | 12% | 16% |
| 68 | 95% | 4.1% | 49% | 61% | 11% | 10% |
| 67 | 98.6% | 3.9% | 37% | 75% | 14% | 6% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
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| Man United vs Burnley (4.3%) | Home Win (69%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Man United | 78% | 64% | 56% |
| Newcastle | 20% | 29% | 35% |
| Chelsea | 5% | 9% | 11% |
| Newcastle vs Sheffield United (2.9%) | Home Win (73%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (11%) |
| Newcastle | 28% | 16% | 11% |
| Man United | 70% | 79% | 82% |
| Chelsea | 6% | 8% | 9% |
| Aston Villa vs Chelsea (2.5%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Chelsea | 3.4% | 6% | 14% |
| Man United | 75% | 73% | 68% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | Brighton |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 68 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 67 | 1.4% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 66 | 5% | 4.0% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 12% | 6% | 99.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | 79% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 16% | 4.4% | 99.8% | 1.6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 29% | 13% | 96.4% | 6% | 4.4% | 75% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 42% | 12% | 89% | 13% | 7% | 59% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 48% | < 1% | < 1% | 67% |
| 61 | 52% | 10% | 85% | 18% | 4.7% | 58% | 6% | 2.0% | 38% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 68% | 16% | 69% | 32% | 14% | 40% | 12% | 7% | 25% | < 1% | < 1% | 42% |
| 59 | 79% | 11% | 54% | 45% | 13% | 23% | 20% | 7% | 13% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 20% |
| 58 | 86% | 8% | 44% | 56% | 10% | 17% | 27% | 8% | 7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 12% |
| 57 | 94% | 7% | 31% | 71% | 16% | 8% | 41% | 13% | 2.7% | 8% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| 56 | 97.3% | 3.5% | 26% | 82% | 10% | 3.0% | 52% | 11% | < 1% | 13% | 5% | 1.1% |
| 55 | 98.8% | 1.5% | 25% | 89% | 7% | 1.7% | 63% | 11% | < 1% | 19% | 6% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
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| Aston Villa vs Chelsea (6.8%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Chelsea | 21% | 30% | 49% |
| Newcastle | 77% | 72% | 60% |
| Man United | 94% | 92% | 87% |
| Newcastle vs Sheffield United (6.2%) | Home Win (73%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (11%) |
| Newcastle | 79% | 60% | 49% |
| Chelsea | 26% | 37% | 43% |
| West Ham | 3.0% | 6% | 8% |
| Brighton | 5% | 8% | 10% |
| Man United vs Burnley (2.8%) | Home Win (69%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Man United | 95.1% | 87% | 81% |
| Chelsea | 28% | 32% | 35% |
| West Ham vs Liverpool (2.6%) | Home Win (30%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (46%) |
| West Ham | 10% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Newcastle | 69% | 73% | 74% |
| Bournemouth vs Brighton (2.6%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Brighton | 2.6% | 4.9% | 12% |
| Brighton vs Man City (2.3%) | Home Win (21%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (58%) |
| Brighton | 15% | 6% | 3.4% |
| Newcastle | 69% | 72% | 73% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | Brighton | West Ham |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 65 | 12% | 6% | >99.99% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.8% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 16% | 4.4% | 100% | 1.6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 29% | 13% | 99.95% | 6% | 4.4% | 99.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 42% | 12% | 99.6% | 13% | 7% | 99.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 52% | 10% | 99.3% | 18% | 4.7% | 98.5% | 6% | 2.0% | 92% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 68% | 16% | 96.8% | 32% | 14% | 96.5% | 12% | 7% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | 77% |
| 59 | 79% | 11% | 92% | 45% | 13% | 90% | 20% | 7% | 68% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 86% | 8% | 85% | 56% | 10% | 83% | 27% | 8% | 56% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 68% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 47% |
| 57 | 94% | 7% | 69% | 71% | 16% | 71% | 41% | 13% | 36% | 8% | 4.5% | 40% | 9% | 6% | 24% |
| 56 | 97.3% | 3.5% | 54% | 82% | 10% | 49% | 52% | 11% | 20% | 13% | 5% | 18% | 11% | 2.2% | 12% |
| 55 | 98.8% | 1.5% | 42% | 89% | 7% | 36% | 63% | 11% | 12% | 19% | 6% | 10% | 24% | 13% | 5% |
| 54 | 99.75% | < 1% | 30% | 95.0% | 6% | 18% | 76% | 13% | 4.2% | 31% | 12% | 2.7% | 42% | 18% | 1.2% |
| 53 | 100% | < 1% | 26% | 97.9% | 2.9% | 6% | 84% | 8% | 1.4% | 41% | 11% | < 1% | 50% | 8% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for avoiding relegation
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| Wolves vs Luton (9.2%) | Home Win (64%) | Draw (19%) | Away Win (16%) |
| Luton | 20% | 30% | 54% |
| Forest | 74% | 67% | 44% |
| Forest vs Man City (6.1%) | Home Win (13%) | Draw (17%) | Away Win (70%) |
| Forest | 89% | 73% | 63% |
| Luton | 10% | 23% | 32% |
| Burnley | 1.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% |
| Sheffield United vs Burnley (2.5%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Burnley | 1.2% | 2.9% | 9% |
| Forest | 70% | 69% | 65% |
| Man United vs Burnley (2.2%) | Home Win (69%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Burnley | 2.2% | 4.9% | 13% |
| Forest | 69% | 67% | 62% |
| Burnley | Luton | Forest |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 36 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 2.2% | 1.7% | 99.8% |
| 35 | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 94% | 7% | 4.5% | 99.7% |
| 34 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 4.6% | 3.2% | 91% | 9% | 2.2% | 98.7% |
| 33 | < 1% | < 1% | 86% | 6% | 1.5% | 80% | 20% | 11% | 95.4% |
| 32 | 1.5% | 1.1% | 68% | 15% | 9% | 66% | 33% | 14% | 94% |
| 31 | 2.2% | < 1% | 55% | 27% | 13% | 57% | 42% | 9% | 85% |
| 30 | 6% | 3.9% | 35% | 35% | 8% | 38% | 61% | 19% | 71% |
| 29 | 12% | 6% | 15% | 55% | 20% | 21% | 77% | 16% | 60% |
| 28 | 17% | 4.9% | 7% | 73% | 18% | 12% | 84% | 7% | 40% |
| 27 | 30% | 13% | 1.4% | 81% | 8% | 3.6% | 95% | 10% | 20% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 3.9% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 77% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 100% | 99.98% |
| Sixth team | 100% | 92% | < 1% |
| Seventh team | 97.5% | 10% | < 1% |
| Eighth team | 6% | 2.2% | < 1% |
Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 30 - 32
Coming Matches
| Home |
| Draw |
| Away |
| Sheffield United | 43% | 24% | 33% | Burnley |
| Brighton | 21% | 21% | 58% | Man City |
| West Ham | 30% | 24% | 46% | Liverpool |
| Man United | 69% | 18% | 14% | Burnley |
| Newcastle | 73% | 16% | 11% | Sheffield United |
| Wolves | 64% | 19% | 16% | Luton |
| Fulham | 55% | 22% | 23% | Crystal Palace |
| Everton | 47% | 24% | 29% | Brentford |
| Aston Villa | 54% | 22% | 23% | Chelsea |
| Tottenham | 36% | 24% | 39% | Arsenal |
| Bournemouth | 42% | 24% | 34% | Brighton |
| Forest | 13% | 17% | 70% | Man City |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 78% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 18% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 68% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 28% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 4.2% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
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