PL: Liverpool (42%) favourites after good results for them
PL: Liverpool (42%) favourites after good results for them
Hot Teams
Fulham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Wolves: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Cold Teams
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Brentford: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Luton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Sheffield United: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 67 | Liverpool | 84.8 | +49 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99.98% | 42% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 64 | Man City | 84.1 | +48 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.96% | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 65 | Arsenal | 83.0 | +55 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.92% | 26% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.99% |
| 59 | Aston Villa | 70.3 | +20 | < 1% | 99.98% | 99.72% | 95.8% | 57% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 89% |
| 56 | Tottenham | 69.1 | +19 | < 1% | 99.86% | 99.0% | 92% | 41% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 82% |
| 48 | Man United | 61.9 | +3 | < 1% | 85% | 65% | 10% | 1.6% | < 1% | 11% | 74% | 8% |
| 43 | Newcastle | 57.2 | +15 | < 1% | 50% | 19% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 25% | 38% | 1.6% |
| 44 | West Ham | 54.8 | -6 | < 1% | 17% | 3.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 12% | 5% |
| 40 | Chelsea | 54.6 | +3 | < 1% | 22% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 27% | < 1% |
| 42 | Brighton | 53.7 | +4 | < 1% | 16% | 4.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 12% | < 1% |
| 41 | Wolves | 53.0 | -5 | < 1% | 9% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 6% | < 1% |
| 39 | Fulham | 49.1 | -2 | < 1% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | < 1% |
| 38 | Bournemouth | 48.6 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 30 | Crystal Palace | 39.4 | -20 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 27 | Brentford | 38.1 | -13 | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Everton | 36.9 | -12 | 3.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 22 | Forest | 30.6 | -20 | 40% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 22 | Luton | 29.1 | -27 | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 18 | Burnley | 26.5 | -38 | 88% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 22.5 | -59 | 98.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Liverpool | 100% | 63% | 15% | ||||
| Man City | 85% | 39% | 7% | 22% | 7% | ||
| Arsenal | 35% | 3.2% | |||||
| Aston Villa | 32% | < 1% | |||||
| Tottenham | < 1% | ||||||
| Man United | 19% | ||||||
| West Ham | 5% | ||||||
| Chelsea | 11% |
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Man City vs Aston Villa (3.8%) | Home Win (72%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (12%) |
| Man City | 38% | 22% | 15% |
| Liverpool | 39% | 48% | 52% |
| Arsenal | 23% | 30% | 33% |
| Liverpool vs Sheffield United (2.4%) | Home Win (85%) | Draw (10%) | Away Win (5%) |
| Liverpool | 45% | 28% | 21% |
| Man City | 31% | 40% | 44% |
| Arsenal | 24% | 32% | 35% |
| Liverpool | Man City | Arsenal | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 92 | 3.1% | 2.4% | 99.3% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99% |
| 91 | 6% | 2.6% | 97.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 9% | 3.4% | 94% | 3.1% | < 1% | - | 3.3% | 2.5% | 91% |
| 89 | 17% | 7% | 88% | 10% | 7% | 82% | 6% | 2.9% | 87% |
| 88 | 23% | 7% | 78% | 17% | 6% | 73% | 10% | 3.5% | 74% |
| 87 | 33% | 9% | 66% | 24% | 8% | 59% | 18% | 8% | 63% |
| 86 | 44% | 11% | 52% | 37% | 13% | 47% | 25% | 7% | 50% |
| 85 | 54% | 10% | 39% | 47% | 10% | 34% | 34% | 9% | 35% |
| 84 | 64% | 11% | 26% | 58% | 11% | 22% | 46% | 12% | 24% |
| 83 | 74% | 10% | 16% | 70% | 11% | 14% | 56% | 10% | 15% |
| 82 | 81% | 7% | 9% | 78% | 8% | 7% | 66% | 10% | 8% |
| 81 | 88% | 6% | 4.7% | 85% | 7% | 3.8% | 76% | 9% | 4.0% |
| 80 | 92% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 90% | 5% | 1.8% | 83% | 7% | 1.8% |
| 79 | 95.4% | 3.0% | < 1% | 94% | 3.6% | < 1% | 89% | 6% | < 1% |
| 78 | 97.5% | 2.1% | < 1% | 96.7% | 2.6% | < 1% | 93% | 4.3% | < 1% |
| 77 | 98.7% | 1.2% | < 1% | 98.2% | 1.5% | < 1% | 95.9% | 2.8% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Chelsea vs Man United (2.4%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Man United | 4.7% | 7% | 15% |
| Tottenham | 84% | 83% | 79% |
| Aston Villa | 90% | 89% | 86% |
Chelsea vs Man United is important for the EL and Conference League slots.
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs Man United (4.1%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Man United | 76% | 83% | 91% |
| Chelsea | 35% | 23% | 19% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs Man United (4.8%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Chelsea | 54% | 39% | 32% |
| Man United | 89% | 94% | 97.6% |
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Forest vs Fulham (6.8%) | Home Win (39%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (37%) |
| Forest | 74% | 57% | 47% |
| Luton | 24% | 34% | 40% |
| Burnley | 9% | 13% | 15% |
| Burnley vs Wolves (3.1%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (40%) |
| Burnley | 20% | 10% | 6% |
| Forest | 56% | 61% | 62% |
| Luton | 30% | 33% | 35% |
| Arsenal vs Luton (2.5%) | Home Win (82%) | Draw (11%) | Away Win (6%) |
| Luton | 30% | 39% | 57% |
| Forest | 61% | 56% | 45% |
| Burnley | 12% | 11% | 7% |
| Sheffield United | Burnley | Luton | Forest | Everton | Brentford | |||||||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 39 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.9% | 1.4% | < 1% | 99.9% | 32% | 9% | 100% | 45% | 10% | 100% |
| 38 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 99.99% | 43% | 11% | 100% | 56% | 11% | >99.99% |
| 37 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | 1.5% | < 1% | 99.4% | 5% | 2.1% | 99.9% | 54% | 10% | >99.99% | 67% | 11% | 99.99% |
| 36 | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 99% | 9% | 3.3% | 99.7% | 64% | 11% | 99.93% | 76% | 9% | 99.93% |
| 35 | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | 1.3% | < 1% | 95% | 6% | 3.0% | 95% | 14% | 6% | 98.8% | 74% | 10% | 99.7% | 84% | 8% | 99.7% |
| 34 | < 1% | < 1% | 89% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 87% | 9% | 3.8% | 89% | 21% | 6% | 96.4% | 82% | 8% | 98.7% | 90% | 6% | 98.8% |
| 33 | < 1% | < 1% | 79% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 76% | 14% | 5% | 79% | 29% | 8% | 92% | 88% | 6% | 96.0% | 94% | 4.1% | 96.2% |
| 32 | < 1% | < 1% | 60% | 8% | 3.1% | 58% | 23% | 9% | 66% | 40% | 11% | 84% | 93% | 4.9% | 89% | 96.9% | 2.8% | 91% |
| 31 | 1.4% | < 1% | 42% | 13% | 6% | 41% | 33% | 9% | 51% | 50% | 10% | 72% | 96.3% | 2.9% | 77% | 98.7% | 1.8% | 80% |
| 30 | 2.5% | 1.1% | 25% | 20% | 6% | 26% | 43% | 10% | 36% | 61% | 11% | 58% | 98.2% | 1.9% | 60% | 99.46% | < 1% | 65% |
| 29 | 4.3% | 1.8% | 12% | 28% | 8% | 13% | 57% | 14% | 22% | 72% | 11% | 43% | 99.26% | 1.1% | 38% | 99.82% | < 1% | 48% |
| 28 | 8% | 3.5% | 5% | 39% | 11% | 7% | 68% | 11% | 13% | 81% | 9% | 27% | 99.71% | < 1% | 19% | 99.97% | < 1% | 25% |
| 27 | 12% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 49% | 10% | 2.6% | 78% | 10% | 6% | 88% | 7% | 16% | 99.91% | < 1% | 9% | 100% | < 1% | 12% |
| 26 | 18% | 6% | < 1% | 60% | 11% | < 1% | 88% | 10% | 2.4% | 94% | 6% | 7% | 99.99% | < 1% | 1% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 25 | 27% | 9% | < 1% | 71% | 12% | < 1% | 93% | 6% | < 1% | 96.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 24 | 36% | 9% | < 1% | 80% | 9% | < 1% | 96.8% | 3.4% | < 1% | 98.7% | 1.8% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 82% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 70% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Sixth team | 100% | 96.5% | < 1% |
| Seventh team | 97.6% | 72% | < 1% |
| Eighth team | 75% | 5% | < 1% |
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Newcastle | 60% | 21% | 20% | Everton |
| Forest | 39% | 24% | 37% | Fulham |
| Burnley | 36% | 24% | 40% | Wolves |
| Bournemouth | 50% | 23% | 27% | Crystal Palace |
| West Ham | 43% | 24% | 33% | Tottenham |
| Arsenal | 82% | 11% | 6% | Luton |
| Brentford | 43% | 24% | 33% | Brighton |
| Man City | 72% | 16% | 12% | Aston Villa |
| Liverpool | 85% | 10% | 5% | Sheffield United |
| Chelsea | 46% | 24% | 30% | Man United |
| 67% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 10% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 7% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 5.0% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 4.4% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 2.6% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham |
| 1.1% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 55% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 28% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 10% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 2.4% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 1.4% | Burnley, Forest, Luton |
| 1.1% | Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United |
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