PL: Crystal Palace hottest team in the league
PL: Crystal Palace hottest team in the league
Palace have taken 6.8 points more thna expected in the last five games. Newcastle, Chelsea, and Man United are fighting over one EL spot and one ECL spot. Man United have the advantage that they can take the EL spot also through a win in the FA cup, giving them a total chance of 36% (ECL, 22%). Chelsea have a slightly easier finish of the league and they have 18% chance on EL (ECL, 41%). Newcastle have two points more a better goal difference, giving them 50% chance on EL (ECL, 34%).
Tottenham need six points in the last three games to clinch a place in EL. They do that in 48% of the simulations, but four won't will be enough if Newcastle don't win everything left or if City beat United in the FA cup final.
Hot Teams
Crystal Palace: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.8 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Everton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 82 | Man City | 88.4 | +58 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 63% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 83 | Arsenal | 86.9 | +62 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 78 | Liverpool | 81.5 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 67 | Aston Villa | 69.9 | +20 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.4% | 96.6% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 65.1 | +13 | < 1% | 99.94% | 98.7% | 90% | 3.4% | < 1% | 2.9% | 93% | 3.4% |
| 56 | Newcastle | 60.3 | +22 | < 1% | 87% | 62% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | 34% | 50% | < 1% |
| 54 | Chelsea | 58.6 | +12 | < 1% | 68% | 22% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | 41% | 18% | < 1% |
| 54 | Man United | 58.1 | -3 | < 1% | 45% | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 22% | 36% | < 1% |
| 49 | West Ham | 51.5 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 47 | Brighton | 50.9 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Bournemouth | 50.6 | -11 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 48.2 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Fulham | 46.2 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Crystal Palace | 45.5 | -8 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Everton | 41.7 | -11 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 36 | Brentford | 38.5 | -8 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Forest | 31.3 | -19 | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Luton | 27.9 | -30 | 95.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 24.7 | -39 | 99.06% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 18.9 | -64 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Tottenham | Newcastle | Man United | Chelsea | |||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 65 | 57% | 7% | 98.8% | 6% | 6% | 89% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 77% | 20% | 98.7% | 6% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 90% | 14% | 94% | 17% | 11% | 83% | 5% | 5% | 95% | 8% | 8% | 72% |
| 62 | 94% | 3.7% | 88% | 35% | 18% | 71% | 5% | < 1% | - | 8% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 98.4% | 4.4% | 80% | 42% | 7% | 74% | 15% | 10% | 68% | 21% | 13% | 45% |
| 60 | 100% | 1.6% | 58% | 63% | 21% | 52% | 32% | 17% | 45% | 40% | 19% | 23% |
| 59 | 100% | < 1% | - | 82% | 18% | 25% | 38% | 6% | 32% | 47% | 7% | 8% |
| 58 | 100% | < 1% | - | 87% | 6% | 24% | 59% | 21% | 25% | 68% | 21% | 4.4% |
| 57 | 100% | < 1% | - | 95.9% | 9% | 6% | 78% | 18% | 22% | 84% | 16% | < 1% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Forest vs Chelsea (13.4%) | Home Win (34%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (42%) |
| Chelsea | 40% | 53% | 77% |
| Newcastle | 92% | 87% | 76% |
| Man United | 67% | 59% | 48% |
| Man United vs Arsenal (9.1%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Man United | 76% | 56% | 45% |
| Chelsea | 46% | 59% | 68% |
| Newcastle | 79% | 85% | 87% |
| Newcastle vs Brighton (8.7%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Newcastle | 93% | 80% | 65% |
| Chelsea | 54% | 62% | 68% |
| Man United | 54% | 58% | 66% |
| Brighton | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% |
| Newcastle | Chelsea | Man United | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 63 | 17% | 11% | >99.99% | 8% | 8% | 97.1% | 5% | 5% | 100% |
| 62 | 35% | 18% | 98.2% | 8% | < 1% | - | 5% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 42% | 7% | 98.4% | 21% | 13% | 91% | 15% | 10% | 95.9% |
| 60 | 63% | 21% | 93% | 40% | 19% | 81% | 32% | 17% | 84% |
| 59 | 82% | 18% | 77% | 47% | 7% | 63% | 38% | 6% | 72% |
| 58 | 87% | 6% | 74% | 68% | 21% | 57% | 59% | 21% | 54% |
| 57 | 95.9% | 9% | 45% | 84% | 16% | 35% | 78% | 18% | 37% |
| 56 | 100% | 4.1% | 16% | 89% | 5% | 17% | 84% | 7% | 30% |
| 55 | 100% | < 1% | - | 96.8% | 7% | 11% | 95% | 10% | 24% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Forest vs Chelsea (9.2%) | Home Win (34%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (42%) |
| Chelsea | 5% | 11% | 31% |
| Newcastle | 57% | 54% | 42% |
| Man United | 40% | 37% | 31% |
| Newcastle vs Brighton (9.1%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Newcastle | 61% | 43% | 28% |
| Chelsea | 12% | 21% | 30% |
| Man United | 32% | 38% | 43% |
| Tottenham | 95.7% | 98.0% | 98.8% |
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