PL: Arsenal put pressure on Man City
PL: Arsenal put pressure on Man City
Arsenal put pressure on Man City with a win against Chelsea. Arsenal are now trailing 1.2 xPoints behind Man City. Every match is crucial and the difference in a win a draw is a 20% swing for Man City. As is the open North London Derby coming up on Sunday.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 73 | Man City | 85.9 | +52 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 50% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 77 | Arsenal | 84.7 | +60 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 36% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 74 | Liverpool | 83.4 | +47 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 66 | Aston Villa | 71.9 | +22 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 99.90% | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 82% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 68.5 | +16 | < 1% | 99.99% | 99.71% | 95.8% | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | 77% | 22% |
| 50 | Man United | 60.2 | +2 | < 1% | 82% | 48% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 26% | 61% | < 1% |
| 50 | Newcastle | 59.4 | +19 | < 1% | 82% | 44% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 46% | 36% | < 1% |
| 47 | Chelsea | 55.7 | +5 | < 1% | 27% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 6% | < 1% |
| 48 | West Ham | 52.9 | -10 | < 1% | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Brighton | 51.8 | +1 | < 1% | 5% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.5% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Wolves | 49.7 | -8 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Bournemouth | 47.4 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Fulham | 47.3 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 36 | Crystal Palace | 41.8 | -16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 35 | Brentford | 40.3 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 32 | Everton | 38.5 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Forest | 30.3 | -20 | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Luton | 28.9 | -31 | 72% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 25.1 | -38 | 95.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 21.5 | -59 | 99.59% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 88% | 39% | 39% | ||||
| Arsenal | 36% | ||||||
| Liverpool | 100% | 14% | |||||
| Aston Villa | 53% | ||||||
| Man United | 23% |
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Tottenham vs Arsenal (12.7%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (40%) |
| Arsenal | 20% | 29% | 54% |
| Man City | 62% | 56% | 37% |
| Liverpool | 19% | 16% | 9% |
| Brighton vs Man City (10.6%) | Home Win (21%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (58%) |
| Man City | 29% | 39% | 62% |
| Arsenal | 50% | 44% | 27% |
| Liverpool | 21% | 17% | 10% |
| Forest vs Man City (8.2%) | Home Win (13%) | Draw (17%) | Away Win (70%) |
| Man City | 26% | 36% | 59% |
| Arsenal | 52% | 46% | 30% |
| Liverpool | 22% | 19% | 11% |
| West Ham vs Liverpool (5.5%) | Home Win (30%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (46%) |
| Liverpool | 4.4% | 9% | 23% |
| Man City | 55% | 53% | 46% |
| Arsenal | 40% | 38% | 31% |
| Everton vs Liverpool (4.6%) | Home Win (22%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (56%) |
| Liverpool | 3.8% | 8% | 21% |
| Man City | 56% | 54% | 47% |
| Arsenal | 41% | 38% | 32% |
| Man City | Arsenal | Liverpool | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 7% | 7% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 7% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 20% | 13% | 90% | 9% | 9% | 92% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 75% |
| 88 | 32% | 12% | 86% | 9% | < 1% | - | 4.9% | < 1% | - |
| 87 | 42% | 9% | 70% | 24% | 15% | 65% | 15% | 10% | 46% |
| 86 | 59% | 17% | 47% | 43% | 19% | 50% | 26% | 11% | 26% |
| 85 | 70% | 11% | 35% | 51% | 8% | 31% | 34% | 8% | 17% |
| 84 | 79% | 9% | 18% | 70% | 19% | 20% | 51% | 18% | 7% |
| 83 | 88% | 9% | 8% | 83% | 13% | 10% | 64% | 13% | 2.4% |
| 82 | 93% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 89% | 6% | 4.4% | 74% | 10% | < 1% |
| 81 | 96.1% | 3.4% | < 1% | 95.8% | 6% | 1.9% | 85% | 11% | < 1% |
| 80 | 98.2% | 2.2% | < 1% | 98.5% | 2.7% | < 1% | 91% | 6% | < 1% |
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