PL: Arsenal against the ropes when traveling to Old Trafford
PL: Arsenal against the ropes when traveling to Old Trafford
Arsenal need to win at Old Trafford to have a reasonable (>10%) chance on the title.
Villa can clinch a CL spot with a win over Liverpool on Monday.
Tottenham must win remaining matches to have a chance to steal the spot from Villa. They need one more point to mathematically clinch the EL slot.
The other EL slot is most likely given Chelsea, Newcastle or Man United. In most simulations 61 points are needed, which implies 4 points in remaining two matches for Chelsea and Newcastle. Man United's main path to EL goes via a win of the FA cup (22%). The mid-week match between Man United and Newcastle will also be crucial. The same three teams are also battling over the ECL slot.
Forest failed clinching the new contract after Chelsea flipped 1-2 deficit to 3-2 win yesterday. Forest have, however, 3 points and 12 goals advantage, meaning Luton's chances for a new contract are merely mathematical.
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Man United vs Arsenal (31.1%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Man City | 95% | 93% | 56% |
| Arsenal | 5% | 7% | 44% |
| Tottenham vs Man City (26%) | Home Win (24%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (53%) |
| Man City | 57% | 61% | 93% |
| Arsenal | 43% | 39% | 7% |
| Man City | Arsenal | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 42% | 42% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 42% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 67% | 25% | 69% | 32% | 32% | 57% |
| 88 | 90% | 23% | 68% | 32% | < 1% | - |
| 87 | 93% | 2.9% | 43% | 57% | 25% | 10% |
| 86 | 98.1% | 4.9% | 15% | 85% | 28% | 7% |
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Tottenham vs Man City (16.3%) | Home Win (24%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (53%) |
| Aston Villa | 83% | 99.1% | 100% |
| Tottenham | 17% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Aston Villa vs Liverpool (7.5%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Aston Villa | 100% | 95% | 91% |
| Tottenham | < 1% | 5% | 9% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 73 | 16% | 16% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 72 | 16% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 71 | 36% | 20% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 70 | 65% | 29% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 69 | 70% | 6% | 99.8% | 14% | 14% | 30% |
| 68 | 88% | 17% | 86% | 14% | < 1% | - |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Man United vs Newcastle (21.8%) | Home Win (48%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Newcastle | 15% | 33% | 63% |
| Chelsea | 44% | 41% | 17% |
| Man United | 42% | 26% | 22% |
| Brighton vs Chelsea (17.1%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Chelsea | 17% | 35% | 59% |
| Newcastle | 45% | 32% | 18% |
| Man United | 38% | 33% | 25% |
| Chelsea | Newcastle | Man United | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 63 | 18% | 18% | 73% | 10% | 10% | 80% | 5% | 5% | 86% |
| 62 | 18% | < 1% | - | 10% | < 1% | - | 5% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 39% | 21% | 54% | 26% | 15% | 64% | 15% | 10% | 65% |
| 60 | 71% | 32% | 28% | 54% | 28% | 40% | 32% | 17% | 34% |
| 59 | 76% | 5% | 18% | 60% | 6% | 21% | 38% | 7% | 32% |
| 58 | 90% | 15% | 6% | 81% | 21% | 10% | 59% | 21% | 23% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Man United vs Newcastle (27.7%) | Home Win (48%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Newcastle | 50% | 80% | 95.7% |
| Man United | 70% | 38% | 25% |
| Brighton vs Chelsea (9.4%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Chelsea | 68% | 83% | 94% |
| Newcastle | 79% | 68% | 60% |
| Man United vs Arsenal (8.6%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Man United | 66% | 52% | 36% |
| Newcastle | 61% | 68% | 79% |
| Chelsea | 73% | 80% | 85% |
| Chelsea | Newcastle | Man United | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 63 | 18% | 18% | 98.0% | 10% | 10% | 100% | 5% | 5% | 100% |
| 62 | 18% | < 1% | - | 10% | < 1% | - | 5% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 39% | 21% | 94% | 26% | 15% | 96.1% | 15% | 10% | 97.2% |
| 60 | 71% | 32% | 84% | 54% | 28% | 87% | 32% | 17% | 74% |
| 59 | 76% | 5% | 76% | 60% | 6% | 79% | 38% | 7% | 71% |
| 58 | 90% | 15% | 62% | 81% | 21% | 56% | 59% | 21% | 43% |
| 2% |
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 85 | Man City | 89.3 | +60 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 77% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 83 | Arsenal | 86.9 | +62 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 78 | Liverpool | 81.5 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 67 | Aston Villa | 69.9 | +20 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.4% | 95.6% |
| 63 | Tottenham | 65.9 | +12 | < 1% | 100% | 99.78% | 96.9% | 4.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | 4.4% |
| 57 | Chelsea | 60.1 | +13 | < 1% | 88% | 45% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 45% | 35% | < 1% |
| 57 | Newcastle | 59.4 | +21 | < 1% | 76% | 42% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 37% | 33% | < 1% |
| 54 | Man United | 58.1 | -3 | < 1% | 36% | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 32% | < 1% |
| 52 | West Ham | 52.4 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Brighton | 51.0 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Bournemouth | 48.9 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Crystal Palace | 47.3 | -6 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 46.6 | -14 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Fulham | 45.5 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Everton | 42.5 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Brentford | 40.4 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Forest | 30.1 | -19 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Luton | 27.3 | -31 | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 24.1 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 18.3 | -64 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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