PL: A must-win match on Sunday for Arsenal when Liverpool are visiting.
A must-win match on Sunday for Arsenal when Liverpool are visiting. Man United are hosting West Ham in a match important for the EL/ECL race (details below).
Hot Teams
Luton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Chelsea: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Fulham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected
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| Average Simulated
Season | Probabilities |
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 46 | Man City | 83.2 | +51 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.98% | 99.74% | 58% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.95% |
| 51 | Liverpool | 81.4 | +46 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.95% | 99.39% | 36% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.88% |
| 46 | Arsenal | 75.2 | +35 | < 1% | 99.93% | 99.70% | 98.6% | 92% | 5% | < 1% | 2.2% | 97.7% |
| 43 | Aston Villa | 69.2 | +20 | < 1% | 98.2% | 95.0% | 86% | 56% | < 1% | 1.0% | 17% | 81% |
| 43 | Tottenham | 68.0 | +19 | < 1% | 97.3% | 93% | 81% | 44% | < 1% | 2.2% | 21% | 74% |
| 36 | West Ham | 59.5 | +5 | < 1% | 60% | 38% | 14% | 3.6% | < 1% | 13% | 37% | 19% |
| 35 | Man United | 57.8 | -3 | < 1% | 44% | 24% | 7% | 1.6% | < 1% | 14% | 35% | 6% |
| 32 | Newcastle | 57.3 | +16 | < 1% | 46% | 26% | 8% | 1.8% | < 1% | 14% | 38% | 7% |
| 29 | Brighton | 55.2 | +4 | < 1% | 28% | 14% | 3.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 21% | 13% |
| 31 | Chelsea | 53.5 | +1 | < 1% | 18% | 8% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 36% | 15% | 1.5% |
| 29 | Wolves | 49.8 | -5 | < 1% | 4.7% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4.2% | 6% | < 1% |
| 23 | Bournemouth | 46.3 | -16 | 1.6% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.6% | 3.0% | < 1% |
| 24 | Crystal Palace | 45.2 | -13 | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Fulham | 44.0 | -13 | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 22 | Brentford | 43.5 | -10 | 3.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 18 | Everton | 37.8 | -8 | 20% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Forest | 37.3 | -21 | 27% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 19 | Luton | 34.2 | -26 | 55% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 12 | Burnley | 28.7 | -32 | 89% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 10 | Sheffield United | 23.6 | -50 | 98.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 87% | 49% | 11% |
| 31% | 11% |
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| Liverpool | 89% | 51% | 15% | 1.6% | 7% |
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| Arsenal | 14% | < 1% |
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| Aston Villa | 38% | 1.5% | < 1% |
| < 1% |
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| Tottenham | < 1% |
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| West Ham | 9% | < 1% |
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| Man United | 4.6% | < 1% |
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| < 1% |
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| Newcastle | 6% | < 1% |
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| Brighton | 13% | < 1% |
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| Chelsea | 32% | < 1% |
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| Wolves | 1.8% |
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| Bournemouth | 1.9% |
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| Forest | < 1% |
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| Luton | < 1% |
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Important matches for title race
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| Arsenal vs Liverpool (4.2%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Liverpool | 29% | 36% | 48% |
| Arsenal | 9% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Man City | 62% | 59% | 50% |
| Brentford vs Man City (3.1%) | Home Win (19%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (61%) |
| Man City | 46% | 52% | 64% |
| Liverpool | 46% | 41% | 31% |
| Arsenal | 8% | 7% | 4.4% |
| Man City | Liverpool | Arsenal |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 93 | 1.8% | < 1% | 99.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 92 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 99.3% | 1.6% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% |
| 91 | 5% | 2.0% | 98.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% |
| 90 | 9% | 3.5% | 97.6% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% |
| 89 | 13% | 4.3% | 95.6% | 7% | 2.6% | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | 89% |
| 88 | 19% | 5% | 93% | 10% | 3.4% | 86% | < 1% | < 1% | 82% |
| 87 | 25% | 7% | 89% | 15% | 4.3% | 80% | < 1% | < 1% | 73% |
| 86 | 33% | 7% | 83% | 20% | 6% | 72% | 1.6% | < 1% | 62% |
| 85 | 41% | 8% | 77% | 27% | 6% | 63% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 52% |
| 84 | 49% | 8% | 69% | 34% | 7% | 54% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 40% |
| 83 | 57% | 8% | 60% | 41% | 8% | 44% | 7% | 2.4% | 29% |
| 82 | 65% | 8% | 50% | 49% | 8% | 34% | 10% | 3.2% | 21% |
| 81 | 72% | 7% | 40% | 57% | 8% | 26% | 14% | 4.3% | 13% |
| 80 | 79% | 6% | 30% | 65% | 8% | 18% | 20% | 5% | 8% |
| 79 | 84% | 5% | 22% | 72% | 7% | 12% | 26% | 6% | 4.7% |
| 78 | 88% | 4.4% | 14% | 79% | 6% | 7% | 33% | 7% | 2.5% |
| 77 | 92% | 3.4% | 9% | 84% | 5% | 4.3% | 41% | 8% | 1.3% |
| 76 | 94% | 2.6% | 5% | 88% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 48% | 8% | < 1% |
| 75 | 96.2% | 1.9% | 3% | 92% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 56% | 8% | < 1% |
| 74 | 97.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 94% | 2.6% | < 1% | 64% | 8% | < 1% |
| 73 | 98.5% | < 1% | < 1% | 96.3% | 1.9% | < 1% | 71% | 7% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for CL race
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| Everton vs Tottenham (2.1%) | Home Win (37%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Tottenham | 67% | 73% | 82% |
| Newcastle | 8% | 7% | 6% |
| Aston Villa | 82% | 81% | 79% |
| Man United | 7% | 6% | 5% |
| West Ham | 21% | 20% | 18% |
| Arsenal | Aston Villa | Tottenham | West Ham | Brighton | Newcastle | Man United | Chelsea |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 81 | 14% | 4.3% | 100% | 1.1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 80 | 20% | 5% | 100% | 1.9% | < 1% | 100% | 1.1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 79 | 26% | 6% | >99.99% | 3.0% | 1.2% | >99.99% | 1.8% | < 1% | 99.9% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 78 | 33% | 7% | >99.99% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 99.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 99.9% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 77 | 41% | 8% | 99.99% | 7% | 2.4% | 99.9% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 99.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 76 | 48% | 8% | 99.97% | 10% | 3.2% | 99.8% | 7% | 2.3% | 99.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 75 | 56% | 8% | 99.9% | 15% | 4.2% | 99.5% | 10% | 3.1% | 99.3% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 74 | 64% | 8% | 99.8% | 20% | 5% | 99.1% | 14% | 3.9% | 98.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 73 | 71% | 7% | 99.5% | 26% | 6% | 98.3% | 19% | 4.8% | 97.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 72 | 78% | 6% | 99.0% | 33% | 7% | 97.4% | 25% | 6% | 96.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 93% | < 1% | < 1% | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 71 | 83% | 5% | 98.4% | 40% | 7% | 96.0% | 31% | 7% | 95% | 1.5% | < 1% | 89% | < 1% | < 1% | 90% | < 1% | < 1% | 90% | < 1% | < 1% | 87% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% |
| 70 | 88% | 4.5% | 96.9% | 48% | 8% | 94% | 39% | 7% | 92% | 2.5% | < 1% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | 85% | < 1% | < 1% | 86% | 1.0% | < 1% | 80% | < 1% | < 1% | 85% |
| 69 | 91% | 3.6% | 95% | 56% | 8% | 91% | 46% | 8% | 90% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | 79% | 1.4% | < 1% | 79% | 1.7% | < 1% | 72% | < 1% | < 1% | 79% |
| 68 | 94% | 2.7% | 92% | 63% | 8% | 88% | 54% | 8% | 86% | 6% | 2.0% | 67% | < 1% | < 1% | 71% | 2.2% | < 1% | 69% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 61% | < 1% | < 1% | 70% |
| 67 | 96.0% | 2.1% | 88% | 70% | 7% | 83% | 62% | 8% | 81% | 8% | 2.6% | 58% | 1.6% | < 1% | 60% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 59% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 49% | < 1% | < 1% | 58% |
| 66 | 97.4% | 1.4% | 82% | 77% | 6% | 76% | 69% | 7% | 74% | 12% | 3.5% | 47% | 2.5% | < 1% | 50% | 5% | 1.9% | 48% | 6% | 2.1% | 38% | < 1% | < 1% | 45% |
| 65 | 98.4% | < 1% | 73% | 82% | 6% | 67% | 76% | 7% | 65% | 16% | 4.4% | 38% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 39% | 8% | 2.6% | 37% | 9% | 2.9% | 27% | 1.4% | < 1% | 33% |
| 64 | 99.06% | < 1% | 62% | 87% | 4.7% | 56% | 82% | 6% | 54% | 22% | 5% | 28% | 6% | 1.9% | 29% | 11% | 3.4% | 26% | 13% | 3.8% | 18% | 2.4% | < 1% | 23% |
| 63 | 99.45% | < 1% | 51% | 91% | 3.8% | 44% | 86% | 4.8% | 43% | 28% | 6% | 21% | 8% | 2.6% | 22% | 16% | 4.2% | 17% | 18% | 4.6% | 11% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 14% |
| 62 | 99.70% | < 1% | 38% | 94% | 2.9% | 32% | 90% | 3.9% | 31% | 35% | 7% | 16% | 12% | 3.3% | 17% | 21% | 5% | 10% | 23% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 1.9% | 8% |
| 61 | 99.84% | < 1% | 27% | 95.7% | 2.2% | 20% | 93% | 3.0% | 20% | 42% | 7% | 12% | 16% | 4.2% | 13% | 27% | 6% | 5% | 30% | 6% | 2.7% | 8% | 2.6% | 4% |
| 60 | 99.92% | < 1% | 16% | 97.3% | 1.5% | 13% | 95.6% | 2.3% | 12% | 50% | 8% | 10% | 21% | 4.9% | 11% | 34% | 7% | 2.4% | 37% | 7% | 1.1% | 12% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| 59 | 99.96% | < 1% | 13% | 98.3% | 1.0% | 6% | 97.2% | 1.6% | 6% | 58% | 8% | 9% | 27% | 6% | 10% | 41% | 7% | 1.0% | 44% | 8% | < 1% | 16% | 4.4% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
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| Man United vs West Ham (5.4%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Man United | 51% | 37% | 30% |
| West Ham | 48% | 57% | 69% |
| Chelsea vs Wolves (2%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Chelsea | 21% | 13% | 10% |
| Wolves | 4.0% | 6% | 10% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | West Ham | Newcastle | Man United | Brighton | Chelsea | Wolves | Bournemouth |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 71 | 40% | 7% | >99.99% | 31% | 7% | 99.97% | 1.5% | < 1% | 99.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 70 | 48% | 8% | 99.98% | 39% | 7% | 99.96% | 2.5% | < 1% | 99.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.7% | 1.0% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 69 | 56% | 8% | 99.94% | 46% | 8% | 99.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 99.2% | 1.4% | < 1% | 99.7% | 1.7% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 68 | 63% | 8% | 99.8% | 54% | 8% | 99.8% | 6% | 2.0% | 98.8% | 2.2% | < 1% | 99.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 67 | 70% | 7% | 99.7% | 62% | 8% | 99.6% | 8% | 2.6% | 98.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 98% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 98% | 1.6% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 66 | 77% | 6% | 99.4% | 69% | 7% | 99.2% | 12% | 3.5% | 96.9% | 5% | 1.9% | 98% | 6% | 2.1% | 96% | 2.5% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 82% | 6% | 98.9% | 76% | 7% | 98.6% | 16% | 4.4% | 95% | 8% | 2.6% | 96% | 9% | 2.9% | 94% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 94% | 1.4% | < 1% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | 92% |
| 64 | 87% | 4.7% | 97.9% | 82% | 6% | 97.2% | 22% | 5% | 92% | 11% | 3.4% | 94% | 13% | 3.8% | 90% | 6% | 1.9% | 92% | 2.4% | < 1% | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | 90% | < 1% | < 1% | 90% |
| 63 | 91% | 3.8% | 96.2% | 86% | 4.8% | 95% | 28% | 6% | 88% | 16% | 4.2% | 90% | 18% | 4.6% | 86% | 8% | 2.6% | 87% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 86% | < 1% | < 1% | 85% | < 1% | < 1% | 82% |
| 62 | 94% | 2.9% | 94% | 90% | 3.9% | 91% | 35% | 7% | 83% | 21% | 5% | 85% | 23% | 6% | 79% | 12% | 3.3% | 81% | 6% | 1.9% | 78% | < 1% | < 1% | 77% | < 1% | < 1% | 75% |
| 61 | 95.7% | 2.2% | 89% | 93% | 3.0% | 85% | 42% | 7% | 75% | 27% | 6% | 78% | 30% | 6% | 70% | 16% | 4.2% | 73% | 8% | 2.6% | 69% | 1.5% | < 1% | 67% | < 1% | < 1% | 63% |
| 60 | 97.3% | 1.5% | 83% | 95.6% | 2.3% | 76% | 50% | 8% | 66% | 34% | 7% | 69% | 37% | 7% | 60% | 21% | 4.9% | 63% | 12% | 3.5% | 58% | 2.5% | < 1% | 54% | < 1% | < 1% | 51% |
| 59 | 98.3% | 1.0% | 76% | 97.2% | 1.6% | 64% | 58% | 8% | 55% | 41% | 7% | 59% | 44% | 8% | 48% | 27% | 6% | 52% | 16% | 4.4% | 45% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 42% | 1.2% | < 1% | 38% |
| 58 | 99.00% | < 1% | 67% | 98.3% | 1.1% | 49% | 65% | 7% | 44% | 49% | 8% | 47% | 52% | 8% | 36% | 33% | 6% | 41% | 22% | 5% | 32% | 6% | 2.0% | 29% | 1.9% | < 1% | 27% |
| 57 | 99.45% | < 1% | 58% | 99.01% | < 1% | 35% | 72% | 7% | 32% | 57% | 8% | 35% | 60% | 8% | 26% | 40% | 7% | 32% | 28% | 6% | 21% | 9% | 2.8% | 18% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 17% |
| 56 | 99.70% | < 1% | 50% | 99.45% | < 1% | 22% | 78% | 6% | 23% | 64% | 7% | 25% | 68% | 7% | 17% | 48% | 7% | 24% | 35% | 7% | 13% | 12% | 3.6% | 11% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 10% |
| 55 | 99.85% | < 1% | 44% | 99.71% | < 1% | 12% | 84% | 5% | 16% | 71% | 7% | 17% | 74% | 7% | 12% | 55% | 7% | 19% | 42% | 7% | 8% | 17% | 4.6% | 6% | 6% | 2.0% | 6% |
| 54 | 99.93% | < 1% | 39% | 99.86% | < 1% | 5% | 88% | 4.4% | 12% | 77% | 6% | 12% | 80% | 6% | 8% | 62% | 7% | 16% | 50% | 8% | 4.6% | 22% | 5% | 3.7% | 9% | 2.6% | 3% |
| 53 | 99.97% | < 1% | 35% | 99.93% | < 1% | 2% | 92% | 3.6% | 10% | 83% | 5% | 9% | 85% | 5% | 6% | 69% | 7% | 14% | 58% | 8% | 2.9% | 29% | 6% | 2.5% | 12% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| 52 | 99.99% | < 1% | 46% | 99.97% | < 1% | < 1% | 94% | 2.7% | 9% | 87% | 4.6% | 7% | 90% | 4.2% | 5% | 76% | 6% | 13% | 65% | 8% | 2.3% | 36% | 7% | 2.0% | 17% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| 51 | >99.99% | < 1% | - | 99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | 96.4% | 2.0% | 9% | 91% | 3.6% | 7% | 93% | 3.2% | 5% | 81% | 6% | 13% | 72% | 7% | 2.0% | 44% | 8% | 1.9% | 22% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| 50 | >99.99% | < 1% | - | >99.99% | < 1% | - | 97.8% | 1.4% | 9% | 94% | 2.9% | 6% | 95.3% | 2.4% | 5% | 86% | 4.7% | 13% | 78% | 6% | 2.0% | 52% | 8% | 1.8% | 27% | 6% | 2.0% |
| 49 | >99.99% | < 1% | - | >99.99% | < 1% | - | 98.7% | < 1% | 9% | 95.9% | 2.1% | 6% | 97.0% | 1.7% | 5% | 90% | 3.9% | 13% | 84% | 5% | 1.8% | 60% | 8% | 1.8% | 34% | 7% | 2.0% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
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| Man United vs West Ham (5.2%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Man United | 66% | 52% | 44% |
| West Ham | 62% | 71% | 81% |
| Chelsea vs Wolves (2.1%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Wolves | 7% | 10% | 17% |
| Chelsea | 57% | 49% | 45% |
| Tottenham | West Ham | Newcastle | Man United | Chelsea | Brighton | Wolves | Bournemouth | Crystal Palace | Brentford |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 69 | 46% | 8% | 99.98% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 99.8% | 1.4% | < 1% | 99.9% | 1.7% | < 1% | 99.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.8% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 68 | 54% | 8% | 99.94% | 6% | 2.0% | 99.7% | 2.2% | < 1% | 99.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 99.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 67 | 62% | 8% | 99.9% | 8% | 2.6% | 99.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 99.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 99.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 1.6% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 66 | 69% | 7% | 99.8% | 12% | 3.5% | 99.0% | 5% | 1.9% | 99.3% | 6% | 2.1% | 98.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.9% | 2.5% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 76% | 7% | 99.5% | 16% | 4.4% | 98.4% | 8% | 2.6% | 98.7% | 9% | 2.9% | 98.0% | 1.4% | < 1% | 99.7% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 82% | 6% | 99.2% | 22% | 5% | 97.4% | 11% | 3.4% | 97.7% | 13% | 3.8% | 96.6% | 2.4% | < 1% | 99.4% | 6% | 1.9% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 86% | 4.8% | 98.3% | 28% | 6% | 95.7% | 16% | 4.2% | 96.6% | 18% | 4.6% | 95% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 98% | 8% | 2.6% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 90% | 3.9% | 96.9% | 35% | 7% | 94% | 21% | 5% | 94% | 23% | 6% | 91% | 6% | 1.9% | 97% | 12% | 3.3% | 92% | < 1% | < 1% | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | 89% | < 1% | < 1% | 90% | < 1% | < 1% | 93% |
| 61 | 93% | 3.0% | 94% | 42% | 7% | 90% | 27% | 6% | 91% | 30% | 6% | 87% | 8% | 2.6% | 95% | 16% | 4.2% | 88% | 1.5% | < 1% | 84% | < 1% | < 1% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | 86% | < 1% | < 1% | 88% |
| 60 | 95.6% | 2.3% | 90% | 50% | 8% | 85% | 34% | 7% | 87% | 37% | 7% | 81% | 12% | 3.5% | 91% | 21% | 4.9% | 82% | 2.5% | < 1% | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | 74% | < 1% | < 1% | 78% | < 1% | < 1% | 82% |
| 59 | 97.2% | 1.6% | 83% | 58% | 8% | 78% | 41% | 7% | 80% | 44% | 8% | 73% | 16% | 4.4% | 85% | 27% | 6% | 74% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 67% | 1.2% | < 1% | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | 67% | < 1% | < 1% | 71% |
| 58 | 98.3% | 1.1% | 74% | 65% | 7% | 69% | 49% | 8% | 72% | 52% | 8% | 63% | 22% | 5% | 78% | 33% | 6% | 66% | 6% | 2.0% | 55% | 1.9% | < 1% | 52% | < 1% | < 1% | 56% | < 1% | < 1% | 60% |
| 57 | 99.01% | < 1% | 62% | 72% | 7% | 58% | 57% | 8% | 62% | 60% | 8% | 52% | 28% | 6% | 70% | 40% | 7% | 55% | 9% | 2.8% | 42% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 39% | 1.6% | < 1% | 42% | < 1% | < 1% | 46% |
| 56 | 99.45% | < 1% | 49% | 78% | 6% | 47% | 64% | 7% | 51% | 68% | 7% | 40% | 35% | 7% | 61% | 48% | 7% | 45% | 12% | 3.6% | 30% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 28% | 2.5% | < 1% | 29% | 1.2% | < 1% | 33% |
| 55 | 99.71% | < 1% | 33% | 84% | 5% | 35% | 71% | 7% | 39% | 74% | 7% | 29% | 42% | 7% | 52% | 55% | 7% | 35% | 17% | 4.6% | 20% | 6% | 2.0% | 17% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 18% | 1.9% | < 1% | 22% |
| 54 | 99.86% | < 1% | 20% | 88% | 4.4% | 25% | 77% | 6% | 29% | 80% | 6% | 20% | 50% | 8% | 45% | 62% | 7% | 26% | 22% | 5% | 12% | 9% | 2.6% | 10% | 6% | 1.8% | 10% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 12% |
| 53 | 99.93% | < 1% | 11% | 92% | 3.6% | 17% | 83% | 5% | 20% | 85% | 5% | 13% | 58% | 8% | 39% | 69% | 7% | 21% | 29% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 3.4% | 6% | 8% | 2.5% | 5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 6% |
| 52 | 99.97% | < 1% | 6% | 94% | 2.7% | 13% | 87% | 4.6% | 13% | 90% | 4.2% | 9% | 65% | 8% | 36% | 76% | 6% | 17% | 36% | 7% | 4.0% | 17% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 11% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 6% | 2.0% | 3% |
| 51 | 99.99% | < 1% | 2% | 96.4% | 2.0% | 10% | 91% | 3.6% | 10% | 93% | 3.2% | 6% | 72% | 7% | 34% | 81% | 6% | 15% | 44% | 8% | 2.7% | 22% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 15% | 4.0% | < 1% | 9% | 2.7% | < 1% |
| 50 | >99.99% | < 1% | - | 97.8% | 1.4% | 9% | 94% | 2.9% | 7% | 95.3% | 2.4% | 5% | 78% | 6% | 33% | 86% | 4.7% | 13% | 52% | 8% | 2.1% | 27% | 6% | 2.1% | 20% | 4.9% | < 1% | 13% | 3.4% | < 1% |
| 49 | >99.99% | < 1% | - | 98.7% | < 1% | 9% | 95.9% | 2.1% | 7% | 97.0% | 1.7% | 5% | 84% | 5% | 33% | 90% | 3.9% | 13% | 60% | 8% | 1.9% | 34% | 7% | 2.0% | 26% | 6% | < 1% | 17% | 4.3% | < 1% |
| 48 | >99.99% | < 1% | - | 99.25% | < 1% | 9% | 97.4% | 1.5% | 6% | 98.2% | 1.2% | 5% | 88% | 4.5% | 33% | 93% | 3.0% | 13% | 68% | 8% | 1.9% | 41% | 7% | 1.9% | 32% | 7% | < 1% | 22% | 5% | < 1% |
| 47 | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.60% | < 1% | 8% | 98.4% | 1.0% | 6% | 99.0% | < 1% | 5% | 92% | 3.5% | 32% | 95.0% | 2.3% | 13% | 75% | 7% | 1.7% | 48% | 7% | 1.9% | 40% | 7% | < 1% | 28% | 6% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for avoiding relegation
|
| Bournemouth vs Forest (2.6%) | Home Win (55%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Forest | 68% | 75% | 84% |
| Bournemouth | 99.3% | 98.1% | 96.6% |
| Luton | 47% | 45% | 41% |
| Everton vs Tottenham (2.3%) | Home Win (37%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Everton | 87% | 78% | 73% |
| Luton | 42% | 45% | 48% |
| Burnley vs Fulham (2.1%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Burnley | 16% | 9% | 6% |
| Fulham | 95.6% | 97.4% | 99.0% |
| Newcastle vs Luton (2%) | Home Win (70%) | Draw (17%) | Away Win (13%) |
| Luton | 41% | 48% | 62% |
| Forest | 75% | 72% | 68% |
| Everton | 81% | 79% | 75% |
| Sheffield United | Burnley | Luton | Forest | Everton | Brentford | Fulham | Crystal Palace | Bournemouth |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 49 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 1.4% | < 1% | 100% | 1.6% | < 1% | 100% | 17% | 4.3% | 100% | 19% | 4.6% | 100% | 26% | 6% | 100% | 34% | 7% | 100% |
| 48 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 2.3% | < 1% | 100% | 2.6% | < 1% | 100% | 22% | 5% | 100% | 24% | 6% | 100% | 32% | 7% | 100% | 41% | 7% | 100% |
| 47 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 100% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 100% | 28% | 6% | 100% | 30% | 6% | 100% | 40% | 7% | 100% | 48% | 7% | 100% |
| 46 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 1.0% | < 1% | 100% | 5% | 1.8% | 100% | 6% | 2.0% | 100% | 34% | 7% | 100% | 37% | 7% | 100% | 47% | 7% | 100% | 56% | 8% | 100% |
| 45 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 1.7% | < 1% | 100% | 8% | 2.4% | 100% | 9% | 2.7% | 100% | 42% | 7% | 100% | 45% | 8% | 100% | 55% | 8% | 100% | 63% | 7% | 100% |
| 44 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 100% | 11% | 3.2% | >99.99% | 12% | 3.6% | 100% | 49% | 7% | >99.99% | 53% | 8% | >99.99% | 62% | 8% | 100% | 70% | 7% | 100% |
| 43 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 4.3% | 1.5% | >99.99% | 15% | 4.1% | 99.99% | 17% | 4.6% | >99.99% | 57% | 8% | >99.99% | 60% | 8% | >99.99% | 69% | 7% | >99.99% | 76% | 6% | >99.99% |
| 42 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 99.8% | 6% | 2.2% | 99.8% | 20% | 5.0% | 99.9% | 22% | 6% | 99.97% | 64% | 7% | 99.98% | 68% | 7% | 99.97% | 76% | 7% | 99.98% | 82% | 6% | 99.96% |
| 41 | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | 9% | 2.9% | 99.1% | 26% | 6% | 99.7% | 29% | 6% | 99.9% | 71% | 7% | 99.9% | 75% | 7% | 99.9% | 82% | 6% | 99.9% | 87% | 4.7% | 99.8% |
| 40 | < 1% | < 1% | 95% | 1.6% | < 1% | 97% | 13% | 3.7% | 97.8% | 33% | 7% | 99.0% | 36% | 7% | 99.6% | 77% | 6% | 99.7% | 81% | 6% | 99.6% | 87% | 4.8% | 99.5% | 90% | 3.8% | 99.2% |
| 39 | < 1% | < 1% | 92% | 2.5% | < 1% | 92% | 18% | 4.8% | 94% | 40% | 7% | 97.3% | 44% | 8% | 98.6% | 83% | 6% | 98.8% | 86% | 5% | 98.7% | 90% | 3.9% | 98.5% | 93% | 3.0% | 97.8% |
| 38 | < 1% | < 1% | 82% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 84% | 24% | 6% | 88% | 48% | 8% | 94% | 52% | 8% | 96.4% | 87% | 4.6% | 97.1% | 90% | 4.2% | 96.4% | 94% | 3.0% | 96% | 95.6% | 2.3% | 94% |
| 37 | < 1% | < 1% | 72% | 6% | 1.9% | 71% | 30% | 7% | 79% | 56% | 8% | 88% | 60% | 8% | 92% | 91% | 3.7% | 93% | 93% | 3.2% | 92% | 95.8% | 2.3% | 90% | 97.2% | 1.6% | 88% |
| 36 | < 1% | < 1% | 54% | 8% | 2.6% | 57% | 38% | 8% | 66% | 64% | 8% | 79% | 68% | 8% | 85% | 94% | 2.9% | 86% | 95.7% | 2.4% | 84% | 97.4% | 1.6% | 82% | 98.3% | 1.1% | 78% |
| 35 | 1.2% | < 1% | 39% | 12% | 3.5% | 40% | 46% | 8% | 52% | 71% | 7% | 67% | 75% | 7% | 75% | 96.1% | 2.1% | 76% | 97.4% | 1.7% | 73% | 98.5% | 1.1% | 69% | 99.0% | < 1% | 63% |
| 34 | 2.0% | < 1% | 25% | 16% | 4.3% | 27% | 55% | 8% | 39% | 78% | 7% | 53% | 81% | 6% | 62% | 97.6% | 1.5% | 62% | 98.5% | 1.1% | 59% | 99.14% | < 1% | 56% | 99.44% | < 1% | 49% |
| 33 | 3.2% | 1.2% | 14% | 21% | 5% | 16% | 63% | 8% | 26% | 83% | 6% | 40% | 86% | 5% | 48% | 98.6% | 1.0% | 47% | 99.19% | < 1% | 44% | 99.54% | < 1% | 40% | 99.71% | < 1% | 34% |
| 32 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 6% | 28% | 6% | 8% | 71% | 8% | 16% | 88% | 4.8% | 27% | 90% | 4.2% | 34% | 99.19% | < 1% | 33% | 99.59% | < 1% | 30% | 99.78% | < 1% | 27% | 99.86% | < 1% | 20% |
| 31 | 7% | 2.3% | 3% | 35% | 7% | 4.0% | 78% | 7% | 9% | 92% | 3.8% | 17% | 94% | 3.2% | 22% | 99.58% | < 1% | 21% | 99.82% | < 1% | 19% | 99.89% | < 1% | 15% | 99.94% | < 1% | 12% |
| 30 | 10% | 3.2% | < 1% | 42% | 8% | 1.7% | 84% | 6% | 4.7% | 95% | 2.8% | 10% | 95.9% | 2.4% | 13% | 99.79% | < 1% | 11% | 99.92% | < 1% | 9% | 99.96% | < 1% | 9% | 99.97% | < 1% | 6% |
| 29 | 14% | 4.1% | < 1% | 50% | 8% | < 1% | 89% | 5% | 2.1% | 96.9% | 2.0% | 5% | 97.5% | 1.6% | 7% | 99.91% | < 1% | 6% | 99.97% | < 1% | 2% | 99.98% | < 1% | 4% | >99.99% | < 1% | 2% |
| 28 | 19% | 5% | < 1% | 59% | 8% | < 1% | 93% | 3.8% | < 1% | 98.2% | 1.4% | 2% | 98.6% | 1.1% | 3% | 99.96% | < 1% | 2% | >99.99% | < 1% | 2% | >99.99% | < 1% | 2% | >99.99% | < 1% | - |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 83% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 77% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 74% | 69% |
| Sixth team | 99.12% | 96.6% | 3.2% |
| Seventh team | 91% | 71% | 3.3% |
| Eighth team | 62% | 12% | 3.1% |
Simulated points for winner: 83 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38
Coming Matches
| Home |
| Draw |
| Away |
| Brighton | 58% | 21% | 21% | Brentford |
| Crystal Palace | 50% | 23% | 27% | Bournemouth |
| Everton | 37% | 24% | 39% | Tottenham |
| Newcastle | 70% | 17% | 13% | Luton |
| Burnley | 43% | 24% | 33% | Fulham |
| Brighton | 60% | 21% | 19% | Crystal Palace |
| Sheffield United | 21% | 21% | 57% | Aston Villa |
| Chelsea | 54% | 22% | 24% | Wolves |
| Man United | 47% | 24% | 30% | West Ham |
| Bournemouth | 55% | 22% | 23% | Forest |
| Arsenal | 47% | 24% | 29% | Liverpool |
| Brentford | 19% | 21% | 61% | Man City |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 43% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 6% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham |
| 5% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 4.0% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham |
| 3.0% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle |
| 2.3% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.9% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 46% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 20% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 15% | Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United |
| 4.0% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 3.0% | Everton, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 2.6% | Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United |
| 2.1% | Burnley, Fulham, Sheffield United |
| 1.4% | Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United |
| 1.3% | Everton, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 1.2% | Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United |
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