PL: A few remaining questions
PL: A few remaining questions
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 79 | Man City | 87.7 | +55 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 61% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 80 | Arsenal | 86.3 | +61 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 39% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 75 | Liverpool | 80.9 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 67 | Aston Villa | 71.0 | +21 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 86% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 87% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 67.2 | +15 | < 1% | 99.98% | 99.76% | 96.9% | 14% | < 1% | < 1% | 83% | 17% |
| 54 | Man United | 59.6 | +1 | < 1% | 84% | 50% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 25% | 63% | < 1% |
| 53 | Newcastle | 58.7 | +19 | < 1% | 82% | 42% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | 48% | 34% | < 1% |
| 48 | Chelsea | 55.8 | +5 | < 1% | 31% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | 7% | < 1% |
| 49 | West Ham | 52.7 | -10 | < 1% | 2.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 48 | Bournemouth | 51.0 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Brighton | 49.7 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 48.7 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Fulham | 46.4 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 40 | Crystal Palace | 43.5 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 38 | Everton | 41.9 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 35 | Brentford | 39.2 | -8 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Forest | 29.7 | -21 | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Luton | 28.2 | -31 | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 25.5 | -37 | 93% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 20.5 | -62 | 99.92% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Arsenal win their remaining three matches in 24% of the simulations and in 81% of those simulations that is sufficient to win the league. The most likely outcome in the simulations is that Man City win three matches and draw one, finishing on 89 points; they do that in 21% of the simulations. Most likely outcome for Arsenal is that lose one match and win two, and that is good enough for the league title only in 32% of the simulations.
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Arsenal vs Bournemouth (10.8%) | Home Win (75%) | Draw (15%) | Away Win (10%) |
| Arsenal | 47% | 20% | 14% |
| Man City | 53% | 80% | 86% |
| Man City vs Wolves (10%) | Home Win (79%) | Draw (13%) | Away Win (8%) |
| Man City | 67% | 39% | 30% |
| Arsenal | 33% | 61% | 70% |
| Man City | Arsenal | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 18% | 18% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 18% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 40% | 21% | 77% | 24% | 24% | 81% |
| 88 | 59% | 19% | 76% | 24% | < 1% | - |
| 87 | 68% | 9% | 53% | 47% | 23% | 41% |
| 86 | 83% | 15% | 29% | 72% | 25% | 32% |
| 85 | 91% | 8% | 21% | 78% | 6% | 17% |
| 84 | 95% | 3.8% | 9% | 91% | 13% | 9% |
| 83 | 98.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 96.9% | 6% | 4.0% |
Three important matches in the CL race the coming week. Villa are playing Brighton, Liverpool and Crystal Palace in the remaining matches, and the most likely outcome is a win, draw and a loss (not necessarily in the order). That would mean that they finish on 71 points, which is enough for a CL spot in 92% of those simulations.
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Chelsea vs Tottenham (8.3%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Aston Villa | 95% | 90% | 75% |
| Tottenham | 9% | 14% | 29% |
| Liverpool vs Tottenham (6.8%) | Home Win (63%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Aston Villa | 92% | 86% | 70% |
| Tottenham | 12% | 18% | 34% |
| Brighton vs Aston Villa (6.2%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Aston Villa | 80% | 87% | 95.9% |
| Tottenham | 24% | 16% | 8% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 76 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 75 | 4.8% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 95% |
| 74 | 14% | 10% | 99.4% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 73 | 30% | 16% | 98.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 78% |
| 72 | 37% | 6% | 96.4% | 7% | 4.4% | 66% |
| 71 | 58% | 21% | 92% | 10% | 2.6% | 54% |
| 70 | 76% | 18% | 86% | 20% | 11% | 35% |
| 69 | 83% | 7% | 77% | 33% | 12% | 22% |
| 68 | 94% | 11% | 65% | 42% | 9% | 14% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Man United (63%) or Newcastle (34%) are likely taking the 2nd EL spot.
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Crystal Palace vs Man United (6.2%) | Home Win (37%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Man United | 51% | 59% | 75% |
| Newcastle | 43% | 37% | 25% |
| Chelsea | 10% | 8% | 4.6% |
| Burnley vs Newcastle (6%) | Home Win (31%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (45%) |
| Newcastle | 22% | 30% | 45% |
| Man United | 72% | 66% | 55% |
| Chelsea | 10% | 8% | 4.8% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 66 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 2.1% | < 1% | - | 2.2% | 2.2% | 84% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 7% | 5% | 100% | 2.2% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 16% | 9% | 97.0% | 8% | 6% | 79% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 70% |
| 62 | 21% | 5% | 93% | 17% | 9% | 67% | 1.5% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 37% | 16% | 84% | 22% | 5% | 70% | 6% | 4.1% | 49% |
| 60 | 52% | 15% | 68% | 39% | 17% | 50% | 12% | 6% | 29% |
| 59 | 62% | 10% | 56% | 55% | 15% | 31% | 16% | 4.5% | 16% |
| 58 | 78% | 16% | 42% | 65% | 10% | 27% | 29% | 13% | 9% |
| 57 | 89% | 10% | 31% | 80% | 16% | 11% | 41% | 12% | 3.1% |
| 56 | 93% | 4.8% | 26% | 90% | 10% | 4.3% | 52% | 11% | 1.1% |
| 55 | 98.2% | 4.8% | 24% | 94% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 67% | 16% | < 1% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs West Ham (12.2%) | Home Win (49%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (28%) |
| Chelsea | 43% | 23% | 14% |
| West Ham | < 1% | < 1% | 8% |
| Newcastle | 76% | 87% | 88% |
| Man United | 84% | 91% | 92% |
| Chelsea vs Tottenham (9.8%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Chelsea | 44% | 24% | 16% |
| Newcastle | 74% | 86% | 90% |
| Man United | 83% | 90% | 93% |
| Burnley vs Newcastle (7.4%) | Home Win (31%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (45%) |
| Newcastle | 69% | 79% | 92% |
| Chelsea | 39% | 32% | 23% |
| West Ham | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | West Ham | |||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 65 | 2.1% | < 1% | - | 2.2% | 2.2% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 7% | 5% | 100% | 2.2% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 16% | 9% | 99.96% | 8% | 6% | 100% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 21% | 5% | 99.9% | 17% | 9% | 99.6% | 1.5% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 37% | 16% | 99.3% | 22% | 5% | 99.5% | 6% | 4.1% | 93% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 52% | 15% | 96.9% | 39% | 17% | 97.4% | 12% | 6% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 59 | 62% | 10% | 94% | 55% | 15% | 93% | 16% | 4.5% | 69% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 78% | 16% | 85% | 65% | 10% | 89% | 29% | 13% | 58% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 47% |
| 57 | 89% | 10% | 73% | 80% | 16% | 74% | 41% | 12% | 37% | 1.8% | < 1% | - |
| 56 | 93% | 4.8% | 61% | 90% | 10% | 60% | 52% | 11% | 21% | 7% | 4.8% | 12% |
| 55 | 98.2% | 4.8% | 45% | 94% | 4.4% | 44% | 67% | 16% | 13% | 25% | 18% | 5% |
| 54 | 100% | 1.8% | 32% | 98.4% | 4.3% | 20% | 78% | 11% | 4.0% | 28% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
Forest take om average 1.5 points more than Luton and clinch the new contract in 69% of the simulations.The table below shows the likely outcome for the two teams as well as Burnley, which are trailing a few points behind.
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Sheffield United vs Forest (15.4%) | Home Win (40%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (36%) |
| Forest | 53% | 66% | 87% |
| Luton | 36% | 27% | 9% |
| Burnley | 11% | 7% | 3.1% |
| Luton vs Everton (14.7%) | Home Win (38%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (37%) |
| Luton | 43% | 16% | 10% |
| Forest | 53% | 75% | 80% |
| Burnley | 3.8% | 8% | 9% |
| Burnley | Luton | Forest | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 35 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 3.8% | 3.8% | 100% |
| 34 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 1.7% | 1.7% | 96% | 3.8% | < 1% | - |
| 33 | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | 1.7% | < 1% | - | 12% | 8% | 98.3% |
| 32 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 6% | 4.7% | 73% | 26% | 14% | 97.7% |
| 31 | 2.5% | 1.9% | 70% | 19% | 13% | 67% | 32% | 6% | 94% |
| 30 | 8% | 5% | 51% | 23% | 3.9% | 46% | 53% | 21% | 79% |
| 29 | 10% | 2.4% | 23% | 43% | 20% | 25% | 72% | 19% | 69% |
| 28 | 22% | 12% | 11% | 66% | 23% | 17% | 80% | 7% | 52% |
| 27 | 37% | 15% | 3.2% | 73% | 7% | 4.8% | 92% | 13% | 24% |
Like
Dislike
Love
Angry
Sad
Funny
Wow
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
Comments 0