Mathematicians in both Britain and France are calling on their respective governments to abandon their present plans, which aim at reaching “herd immunity.”  Here are the first paragraphs of the British petition, which was apparently initiated by a group of applied mathematicians at Queen Mary University of London.

As scientists living and working in the UK, we would like to express our concern about the course of action announced by the Government on 12th March 2020 regarding the Coronavirus outbreak.  In particular, we are deeply preoccupied by the timeline of the proposed plan, which aims at delaying social distancing measures even further.

The current data about the number of infections in the UK is in line with the growth curves already observed in other countries, including Italy, Spain, France,and Germany [1]. The same data suggests that the number of infected will be in the order of dozens of thousands within a few days.

Under unconstrained growth, this outbreak will affect millions of people in the next few weeks. This will most probably put the NHS at serious risk of not being able to cope with the flow of patients needing intensive care, as the number of ICU beds in the UK is not larger than that available in other neighbouring countries with a similar population [2]. Going for “herd immunity” at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary.

By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared.

The complete statement is online.  It already has received more than 500 signatures, and they write

We are still collecting signatures, primarily from UK scientists but
also from leading international experts, mainly in mathematical
modelling, epidemiology, immunology, virology.

If you want to add your signature, you can write to Vincenzo Nicosia at

v.nicosia [at] qmul.ac.uk.

While the British statement is politely worded, almost to the point of caricature, Michel Parigot’s op-ed in today’s Libération, entitled Coronavirus:  the population must be locked down now, is extremely direct.  I translate the essential passages:

On Sunday Morning [French Minister of National Education] Jean-Michel Blanquer revealed, with an astounding distance and coldness, what what the government’s strategy had been from the start.  He explained that it is not a question of “preventing the virus from developing … but of ensuring that it develops over the longest possible period”, so that “50% to 70% of the population [are] ultimately infected with the virus “to achieve” majority immunity “.

Behind these figures, people are going to die. The idea is to immunize around 40 million people by exposing them to the virus. With a death rate in the range of 1% to 5%, depending on whether or not there are sufficient care options, that means between 400,000 and 2 million deaths. A strategy of deliberately sacrificing hundreds of thousands of lives when an alternative exists, which the Chinese have already shown is possible, is simply monstrous.

Concretely, Parigot calls on the government to

ban all contacts which are not strictly necessary, and for that to kill the economy [here he quotes an expression that has been circulating in the press], with the exception of strictly necessary economic activities and working remotely. Maximum protection must also be provided to those who provide essential services: healthcare, food (production and distribution), essential infrastructure (water, electricity, internet, etc.). Masks must be worn by anyone who travels. Finally, we must give precise instructions with informative explanations to protect ourselves and others; it’s not enough to recommend “washing our hands as often as possible”.

Parigot’s final paragraph calls on President Macron to lock down the population completely and immediately, and seems to endorse a declaration of martial law if it comes to that.  An article in today’s Le Monde suggests that the French authorities are already thinking along these lines.

(To avoid any misunderstanding, I hasten to add that I can’t imagine that a declaration of martial law by the current US administration would end well; and in view of the violent reaction of the French police to demonstrations over the past 18 months — even as recently as one week ago — I’m not so sure it would work out well in France, either.)