French Open: Probabilities After Round 1

Name	R3	R4	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
J Sinner	97.4%	93%	85%	72%	45%	31%
C Alcaraz	98.9%	94%	84%	58%	32%	20%
N Djokovic	95% (+1.3)	85% (+1.2)	75% (+1.1)	55% (+0.5)	38% (+0.5)	19% (+0.2)
A Zverev	90% (-1.7)	75% (-2)	53% (-2.5)	33% (-1.6)	16% (-0.9)	6% (-0.3)
D Medvedev	87%	72% (-0.5)	53% (-1.7)	32% (-0.9)	15% (-0.5)	6% (-0.2)
S Tsitsipas	94%	84%	56%	25%	11%	5%
C Ruud	84% (+1.4)	72% (-0.1)	50% (-1.9)	23% (-1.1)	12% (-0.5)	4.3% (-0.2)
A Rublev	87%	70%	34%	13%	4.6%	2.0%
T Fritz	78% (+11)	66% (+11.2)	33% (+5.4)	12% (+1.8)	5% (+0.8)	1.4% (+0.2)
G Dimitrov	82%	71%	43%	11%	3.2%	1.1%
H Hurkacz	81%	62%	37%	9%	2.7%	< 1%
H Rune	84% (+18.5)	52% (+11.3)	22% (+5.1)	10% (+2.3)	3.3% (+0.7)	< 1% (+0.2)
A De Minaur	94% (+23.4)	53% (+11.5)	21% (+4.4)	8% (+1.7)	2.3% (+0.5)	< 1% (+0.1)
K Khachanov	87%	42% (-2.9)	16% (-0.7)	6% (-0.3)	1.7% (-0.1)	< 1%
J-L Struff	75% (+6)	39% (+0.7)	15% (+0.3)	6% (+0.1)	1.6%	< 1%
S Baez	78%	63%	10%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%
T Paul	69%	43%	9% (-0.3)	3.3% (-0.2)	1.0% (-0.1)	< 1%
F Auger-Aliassime	92%	59%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
F Cerundolo	87%	42%	7% (-0.2)	2.2% (-0.1)	< 1%	< 1%
L Musetti	68%	10% (-0.7)	5% (-0.3)	1.6% (-0.2)	< 1%	< 1%
M Navone	61% (+6.1)	16% (+1.6)	7% (+0.3)	1.9% (+0.1)	< 1%	< 1%
M Arnaldi	68%	19%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L Darderi	50% (-3.2)	11% (-0.4)	4.0% (-0.3)	1.1% (-0.1)	< 1%	< 1%
T Griekspoor	50% (+8.3)	11% (+2.1)	3.8% (+0.6)	1.1% (+0.1)	< 1%	< 1%
TM Etcheverry	71% (+12.5)	16% (+2)	6% (+0.3)	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
B Shelton	80%	36%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D Lajovic	22% (-5.8)	14% (-2.4)	3.5% (-0.7)	< 1% (-0.1)	< 1%	< 1%
F Tiafoe	52%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A Davidovich Fokina	16% (+1.9)	9% (+0.5)	3.0% (-0.1)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D Shapovalov	48%	14%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
T Machac	39% (+17.3)	7% (+3.2)	2.3% (+0.9)	< 1% (+0.2)	< 1%	< 1%
T Kokkinakis	71% (+42.2)	17% (+8.8)	3.4% (+1.8)	< 1% (+0.2)	< 1%	< 1%

Last 32	Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
N Djokovic (95%)
	N Djokovic (85%)
L Musetti (68%) G Monfils (32%)
		N Djokovic (75%) T Paul (9%)
F Cerundolo (87%)
	T Paul (43%) F Cerundolo (42%) F Fognini (13%)
T Paul (69%) F Fognini (31%)
			N Djokovic (55%) C Ruud (23%) T Fritz (12%)
T Fritz (78%) D Lajovic (22%)
	T Fritz (66%) T Kokkinakis (17%)
T Kokkinakis (71%) G Zeppieri (29%)
		C Ruud (50%) T Fritz (33%) TM Etcheverry (6%)
TM Etcheverry (71%) A Rinderknech (29%)
	C Ruud (72%) TM Etcheverry (16%)
C Ruud (84%)
				N Djokovic (38%) A Zverev (16%) D Medvedev (15%) C Ruud (12%)
A Zverev (90%)
	A Zverev (75%) L Darderi (11%)
L Darderi (50%) T Griekspoor (50%)
		A Zverev (53%) H Rune (22%) K Khachanov (16%)
K Khachanov (87%)
	H Rune (52%) K Khachanov (42%)
H Rune (84%)
			A Zverev (33%) D Medvedev (32%) H Rune (10%) A De Minaur (8%)
A De Minaur (94%)
	A De Minaur (53%) J-L Struff (39%)
J-L Struff (75%) A Bublik (25%)
		D Medvedev (53%) A De Minaur (21%) J-L Struff (15%)
M Navone (61%) T Machac (39%)
	D Medvedev (72%) M Navone (16%)
D Medvedev (87%)
					J Sinner (31%) C Alcaraz (20%) N Djokovic (19%) A Zverev (6%)
A Rublev (87%)
	A Rublev (70%) M Arnaldi (19%)
M Arnaldi (68%) A Muller (32%)
		S Tsitsipas (56%) A Rublev (34%)
Z Zhang (54%) L Sonego (46%)
	S Tsitsipas (84%)
S Tsitsipas (94%)
			C Alcaraz (58%) S Tsitsipas (25%) A Rublev (13%)
B Shelton (80%) K Nishikori (20%)
	F Auger-Aliassime (59%) B Shelton (36%)
F Auger-Aliassime (92%)
		C Alcaraz (84%)
S Korda (67%) S-w Kwon (33%)
	C Alcaraz (94%)
C Alcaraz (99%)
				J Sinner (45%) C Alcaraz (32%) S Tsitsipas (11%)
H Hurkacz (81%) B Nakashima (19%)
	H Hurkacz (62%) F Tiafoe (15%) D Shapovalov (14%)
F Tiafoe (52%) D Shapovalov (48%)
		G Dimitrov (43%) H Hurkacz (37%) F Tiafoe (5%)
Z Bergs (67%) M Marterer (33%)
	G Dimitrov (71%) Z Bergs (14%)
G Dimitrov (82%) F Marozsan (18%)
			J Sinner (72%) G Dimitrov (11%)
C Moutet (51%) A Shevchenko (49%)
	S Baez (63%) C Moutet (14%) A Shevchenko (12%)
S Baez (78%) S Ofner (22%)
		J Sinner (85%)
S Wawrinka (51%) P Kotov (49%)
	J Sinner (93%)
J Sinner (97%)