Europa: Final Four - Real Madrid, Leverkusen and Aston Villa favourites.
Europa: Final Four - Real Madrid, Leverkusen and Aston Villa favourites.
Real Madrid, Leverkusen, and Aston Villa are favourites in the three tournamenents, as detailed in tables below. Italy has clinched a bonus spot in next year's Champions League, while Germany is great favourite to grab the other bonus spot. They clinch the spot if any of the three remaining German teams win a tournament or if Aston Villa fail to reach the final. More details at the bottom.
In practice, a German team reaching the finals is most likely sufficient. It's mathematically possible that Germany misses the bonus spot with a team in the finals, but that possibility is mostly mathematical.
Champions League
| Team | Final | Champion |
| Real Madrid | 55% | 33% |
| Bayern | 45% | 26% |
| Paris SG | 53% | 23% |
| Dortmund | 47% | 18% |
Europa League
| Team | Final | Champion |
| Leverkusen | 63% | 40% |
| Atalanta | 59% | 25% |
| Roma | 37% | 20% |
| Marseille | 41% | 15% |
Europa Conference League
| Team | Final | Champion |
| Aston Villa | 84% | 53% |
| Fiorentina | 62% | 27% |
| Brugge | 38% | 14% |
| Olympiakos | 16% | 6% |
Which countries get extra CL spots
| Score | ||||
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| ITA | 100% | 20.89 | 19.57 | 22.29 |
| GER | 96.1% | 19.41 | 18.07 | 20.78 |
| ENG | 3.9% | 18.35 | 17.75 | 18.63 |
| FRA | < 1% | 16.67 | 15.75 | 18.08 |
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