Euro: Will Spain or Italy join Germany into the knockout stage?
Euro: Will Spain or Italy join Germany into the knockout stage?
Germany have clinched a spot in the knockout stage and Switzerland only miss in five out 10,000 simulations. Hungary must beat Scotland and hope for the best and a better goal difference might help. For Scotland a win against Hungary is most likely sufficient (>96%) and a draw means very slim chances (7%).
Today in Group B, the winner between Spain and Italy clinch a spot in the knockout stage. A draw probably means very good chances for both teams.
In Group C, England can clinch advancement with a draw against Denmark, although they need to win the clinch the advancement mathematically. Denmark almost (>99%) qualified for the knockout stage if they win. If they draw or lose, they should hope for a goalless draw between Serbia and Slovenia. The winner between Serbia and Slovenia have good chances (especially Slovenia) but a draw means they are in trouble before the last group match.
| Group A | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Germany | 2 | +6 | 6 | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 82% | 100% |
| Switzerland | 2 | +2 | 4 | < 1% | 2.1% | 80% | 18% | 99.95% |
| Scotland | 2 | -4 | 1 | 45% | 53% | 2.1% | < 1% | 32% |
| Hungary | 2 | -4 | 0 | 55% | 45% | < 1% | < 1% | 29% |
| Germany - Switzerland | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 99.93% | 100% | 100% | Sco - Hun | ||
| 99.8% | 100% | 100% | 99.85% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Away | |
| Scotland - Hungary | ||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | Away | |||
| 99.9% | 99.4% | 98.1% | 96.7% | 7% | < 1% | Ger - Swi | ||
| 100% | 99.5% | 98.1% | 96.7% | 7% | < 1% | 32% | Home | |
| 100% | 99% | 98% | 96.7% | 7% | < 1% | 32% | Draw | |
| 99.9% | 99% | 98% | 97% | 7% | < 1% | 32% | Away | |
| Scotland - Hungary | ||||||||||||
| Home | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 0-3 | 1-4 | -4 | |||
| < 1% | < 1% | 49% | 53% | 56% | 66% | 71% | 85% | 88% | 94% | Ger - Swi | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | 49% | 53% | 56% | 66% | 71% | 85% | 88% | 94% | 29% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 49% | 52% | 56% | 65% | 71% | 86% | 88% | 93% | 29% | Draw | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 49% | 52% | 56% | 66% | 71% | 85% | 88% | 94% | 29% | Away | |
| Group B | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Spain | 1 | +3 | 3 | < 1% | 2.6% | 30% | 67% | 98.8% |
| Italy | 1 | +1 | 3 | 1.8% | 26% | 39% | 33% | 90% |
| Albania | 2 | -1 | 1 | 62% | 32% | 5% | < 1% | 10% |
| Croatia | 2 | -3 | 1 | 35% | 39% | 26% | < 1% | 41% |
| Group C | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| England | 1 | +1 | 3 | 1.3% | 7% | 15% | 77% | 97.9% |
| Denmark | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23% | 31% | 33% | 13% | 63% |
| Slovenia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 38% | 32% | 23% | 7% | 48% |
| Serbia | 1 | -1 | 0 | 37% | 30% | 29% | 2.9% | 55% |
| Denmark - England | ||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | Away | |||
| 87% | 88% | 91% | 92% | 99.96% | 100% | Slo - Ser | ||
| 90% | 90% | 93% | 96.3% | 99.98% | 100% | 98.8% | Home | |
| 88% | 88% | 90% | 92% | 99.96% | 100% | 97.9% | Draw | |
| 86% | 87% | 89% | 89% | 99.96% | 100% | 97.4% | Away | |
| Denmark - England | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 99.90% | 66% | 46% | Slo - Ser | ||
| 99.93% | 64% | 46% | 63% | Home | |
| 99.9% | 69% | 56% | 69% | 0-0 | |
| 99.8% | 68% | 48% | 64% | 1-1 | |
| 99.9% | 67% | 43% | 61% | 2-2 | |
| 99.8% | 67% | 43% | 62% | 3-3 | |
| 99.91% | 65% | 45% | 62% | Away | |
| Slovenia - Serbia | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 99.76% | 43% | 17% | Den - Eng | ||
| 99.6% | 33% | 15% | 46% | Home | |
| 99.8% | 41% | 16% | 48% | Draw | |
| 99.8% | 47% | 17% | 50% | Away | |
| Slovenia - Serbia | ||||||||||||
| +3 | +2 | +1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2-2 | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 16% | 20% | 23% | 37% | 41% | 43% | 83% | 88% | 91% | 91% | Den - Eng | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 83% | 88% | 91% | 92% | 48% | Home | |
| 20% | 27% | 30% | 37% | 37% | 38% | 83% | 88% | 91% | 92% | 57% | Draw | |
| 21% | 27% | 30% | 38% | 44% | 48% | 83% | 88% | 91% | 91% | 58% | Away | |
Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
1.39; Denmark have 2% if they win against England; otherwise 0.82%
1.15; Serbia have 0.96% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 0.33%
1.14; Denmark have 1.5% if they draw (or win) against England; otherwise 0.72%
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Spain (67%) Italy (33%) | ||||||||
Spain (50%) Italy (23%) Belgium (5%) | ||||||||
Turkey (15%) Romania (15%) Czechia (14%) Ukraine (12%) Belgium (11%) | ||||||||
Germany (34%) Spain (30%) Italy (12%) England (4%) | ||||||||
Germany (82%) Switzerland (18%) | ||||||||
Germany (59%) Denmark (11%) Serbia (9%) | ||||||||
Denmark (33%) Serbia (29%) Slovenia (23%) England (15%) | ||||||||
Germany (19%) Spain (17%) Portugal (16%) France (10%) Netherlands (9%) | ||||||||
Portugal (76%) Turkey (19%) | ||||||||
Portugal (53%) Hungary (9%) Turkey (8%) | ||||||||
Hungary (23%) Scotland (23%) Serbia (10%) Italy (10%) | ||||||||
Portugal (30%) Netherlands (17%) France (16%) Belgium (10%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (43%) France (30%) Austria (21%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (30%) France (23%) Belgium (18%) Austria (12%) | ||||||||
Belgium (35%) Romania (31%) Slovakia (22%) | ||||||||
France (22%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) England (9%) | ||||||||
Slovakia (41%) Romania (29%) Belgium (22%) | ||||||||
Belgium (14%) Slovakia (12%) Austria (11%) Romania (8%) Netherlands (7%) | ||||||||
Austria (18%) Serbia (13%) Poland (11%) Netherlands (10%) Slovenia (10%) | ||||||||
France (38%) Netherlands (18%) Belgium (7%) Portugal (6%) | ||||||||
France (62%) Netherlands (33%) | ||||||||
France (49%) Netherlands (23%) Turkey (9%) | ||||||||
Turkey (44%) Czechia (33%) Portugal (19%) | ||||||||
France (26%) England (16%) Netherlands (11%) Italy (8%) | ||||||||
England (77%) Denmark (13%) | ||||||||
England (54%) Denmark (7%) Belgium (5%) | ||||||||
Turkey (14%) Czechia (13%) Romania (12%) Austria (11%) Ukraine (9%) | ||||||||
England (30%) Italy (13%) Spain (13%) Switzerland (10%) | ||||||||
Switzerland (80%) Germany (18%) | ||||||||
Switzerland (26%) Italy (25%) Spain (21%) Croatia (17%) | ||||||||
Italy (39%) Spain (30%) Croatia (26%) |
| Pts | GD | Probability | Last 16 | Chance |
| 4 | - | 30% | 30% | 99.18% |
| 3 | 0 | 6% | 6% | 93% |
| 3 | 4-5 | 3.4% | 2.9% | 87% |
| 3 | 3-4 | 2.8% | 2.4% | 84% |
| 3 | 4-6 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 74% |
| 3 | 3-5 | 3.5% | 2.4% | 69% |
| 3 | 2-4 | 1.4% | < 1% | 65% |
| 3 | 4-7 | 1.9% | 1.1% | 60% |
| 3 | 3-6 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 54% |
| 3 | 2-5 | 2.4% | 1.2% | 49% |
| 3 | -4 | 2.8% | 1.2% | 44% |
| 2 | 4-5 | 1.6% | < 1% | 25% |
| 2 | 3-4 | 1.7% | < 1% | 25% |
| 2 | -3 | 3.9% | < 1% | 9% |
| 2 | -4 | 4.3% | < 1% | 7% |
| Group E | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -4 | -3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 43% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 86% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 43% | |
| Romania | 3rd | 30% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 26% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 4% | 9% | |
| Slovakia | 3rd | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | |
| Belgium | 3rd | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 3% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 20% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 3% | 9% | |
| Ukraine | 3rd | 26% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | |
| Group F | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -4 | -3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 5% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | < 1% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 25% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 75% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 25% | |
| Turkey | 3rd | 34% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 11% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 11% | |
| Portugal | 3rd | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| Czechia | 3rd | 39% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 8% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 8% | |
| Georgia | 3rd | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | |
| Group D | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -4 | -3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 25% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 73% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 24% | |
| Netherlands | 3rd | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10% | |
| France | 3rd | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | |
| Poland | 3rd | 29% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | |
| Austria | 3rd | 44% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 8% | |
| Group C | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -4 | -3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | 12% | 31% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 65% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 31% | |
| England | 3rd | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | |
| Denmark | 3rd | 31% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 11% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 11% | |
| Slovenia | 3rd | 32% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 12% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 12% | |
| Serbia | 3rd | 30% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 3% | |
| Group A | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -4 | -3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | 9% | 3% | < 1% | 7% | 5% | < 1% | 4% | 2% | 31% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 61% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | < 1% | 4% | 4% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | 30% | |
| Germany | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Switzerland | 3rd | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| Scotland | 3rd | 53% | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 29% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 30% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 28% | |
| Hungary | 3rd | 45% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | 9% | 3% | < 1% | 7% | 5% | < 1% | 4% | 2% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 29% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | < 1% | 4% | 4% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | |
| Group B | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -4 | -3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | 19% | 2% | 4% | 2% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 27% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 40% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 26% | |
| Spain | 3rd | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | |
| Italy | 3rd | 26% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 9% | |
| Albania | 3rd | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | |
| Croatia | 3rd | 39% | < 1% | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 14% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 15% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | |
Like
Dislike
Love
Angry
Sad
Funny
Wow
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
Comments 0