Euro: Will Belgium disappoint again?
Euro: Will Belgium disappoint again?
The winner between Turkey and Portugal clinch a place in the knockout stage - and in case of a draw both clinch advancement in practice (>99.5%). In the other match in Group F, Czechia play Georgia and a loss likely means they can pack their bags.
In Group E, the surprise from match day 1, Romania, play Belgium. Will Belgium disappoint again and be in big trouble or will they win and we'll have all four countries on three points before the last match.
| Group D | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Netherlands | 2 | +1 | 4 | < 1% | 25% | 39% | 36% | 99.97% |
| France | 2 | +1 | 4 | < 1% | 1.7% | 42% | 57% | >99.99% |
| Austria | 2 | +1 | 3 | < 1% | 73% | 19% | 7% | 95.6% |
| Poland | 2 | -3 | 0 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Netherlands - Austria | ||||||||
| Home | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 100% | 100% | 99.99% | 99.9% | 99.6% | 99% | Pol - Fra | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 99.9% | 99% | 99% | 99.97% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 99.99% | 99.9% | 99.7% | 99% | 99.97% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 99.98% | 99.9% | 99.6% | 99% | 99.97% | Away | |
| Poland - France | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 99.98% | 100% | 100% | Net - Aus | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Draw | |
| 99.9% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | Away | |
| Netherlands - Austria | |||||||||||
| 4-0 | 3-0 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 4-2 | +1 | Draw | Away | |||
| 70% | 82% | 85% | 91% | 94% | 95% | 97.9% | 100% | 100% | Pol - Fra | ||
| 70% | 81% | 84% | 92% | 94% | 95% | 97.8% | 100% | 100% | 95.5% | Home | |
| 72% | 81% | 86% | 91% | 94% | 95% | 97.9% | 100% | 100% | 95.6% | Draw | |
| 69% | 82% | 85% | 91% | 94% | 96% | 97.8% | 100% | 100% | 95.6% | Away | |
| Group E | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Romania | 1 | +3 | 3 | 14% | 22% | 34% | 30% | 83% |
| Ukraine | 2 | -2 | 3 | 39% | 33% | 13% | 14% | 54% |
| Slovakia | 2 | 0 | 3 | 23% | 28% | 18% | 31% | 75% |
| Belgium | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23% | 16% | 35% | 25% | 76% |
| Group F | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Turkey | 1 | +2 | 3 | 3.5% | 33% | 44% | 19% | 92% |
| Portugal | 1 | +1 | 3 | < 1% | 3.8% | 19% | 76% | 99.01% |
| Czechia | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24% | 39% | 33% | 3.3% | 65% |
| Georgia | 1 | -2 | 0 | 71% | 23% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 22% |
| Turkey - Portugal | ||||||||
| Home | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 100% | 99.88% | 92% | 89% | 85% | 81% | Geo - Cze | ||
| 100% | >99.99% | 84% | 82% | 80% | 79% | 88% | Home | |
| 100% | 99.5% | 92% | 89% | 85% | 80% | 92% | Draw | |
| 100% | 99.98% | 96.3% | 93% | 88% | 83% | 94% | Away | |
| Turkey - Portugal | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 94% | 99.7% | 100% | Geo - Cze | ||
| 97.9% | >99.99% | 100% | 99.7% | Home | |
| 94% | 98.8% | 100% | 98.9% | Draw | |
| 92% | >99.99% | 100% | 98.7% | Away | |
| Georgia - Czechia | ||||||||||||
| +4 | +3 | 2-0 | 3-1 | +1 | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 8% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 26% | 49% | 93% | 97.0% | 98.7% | 99.3% | Tur - Por | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 49% | 93% | 97% | 98.9% | 99% | 60% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 49% | 93% | 97% | 98.7% | 99% | 60% | Draw | |
| 12% | 14% | 19% | 23% | 39% | 49% | 93% | 97.0% | 98.7% | 99.3% | 68% | Away | |
| Georgia - Czechia | |||||||||
| +4 | +3 | 2-0 | 3-1 | +1 | Draw | Away | |||
| 96% | 91% | 78% | 81% | 61% | 11% | < 1% | Tur - Por | ||
| 93% | 89% | 79% | 82% | 72% | 12% | 6% | 26% | Home | |
| 95% | 89% | 80% | 82% | 73% | 9% | < 1% | 23% | Draw | |
| 96% | 92% | 77% | 81% | 56% | 12% | < 1% | 21% | Away | |
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Spain (100%) | ||||||||
Spain (75%) Ukraine (4%) | ||||||||
Ukraine (15%) Czechia (14%) Slovakia (14%) Turkey (14%) Romania (11%) | ||||||||
Spain (44%) Germany (32%) Denmark (6%) | ||||||||
Germany (82%) Switzerland (18%) | ||||||||
Germany (58%) Denmark (16%) Serbia (9%) | ||||||||
Denmark (49%) Serbia (29%) England (16%) | ||||||||
Spain (24%) Germany (18%) Portugal (15%) France (13%) | ||||||||
Portugal (76%) Turkey (19%) | ||||||||
Portugal (53%) Italy (10%) Hungary (9%) | ||||||||
Hungary (25%) Scotland (23%) Italy (19%) Slovenia (12%) | ||||||||
Portugal (29%) France (22%) Netherlands (15%) Belgium (10%) | ||||||||
France (42%) Netherlands (39%) Austria (19%) | ||||||||
France (32%) Netherlands (27%) Belgium (17%) Austria (11%) | ||||||||
Belgium (35%) Romania (34%) Slovakia (18%) | ||||||||
France (22%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) Netherlands (10%) | ||||||||
Slovakia (31%) Romania (30%) Belgium (25%) Ukraine (14%) | ||||||||
Austria (28%) Belgium (16%) Netherlands (12%) Slovakia (9%) | ||||||||
Austria (45%) Netherlands (16%) Slovenia (9%) | ||||||||
France (33%) Netherlands (22%) Austria (12%) Belgium (8%) | ||||||||
France (57%) Netherlands (36%) | ||||||||
France (45%) Netherlands (25%) Turkey (9%) | ||||||||
Turkey (44%) Czechia (33%) Portugal (19%) | ||||||||
France (22%) England (17%) Netherlands (13%) Italy (11%) Croatia (7%) | ||||||||
England (78%) Slovenia (12%) | ||||||||
England (56%) Austria (7%) Denmark (5%) | ||||||||
Austria (15%) Turkey (15%) Czechia (15%) Slovakia (12%) Ukraine (12%) | ||||||||
England (32%) Italy (20%) Croatia (14%) Switzerland (10%) | ||||||||
Switzerland (80%) Germany (18%) | ||||||||
Italy (37%) Switzerland (27%) Croatia (24%) | ||||||||
Italy (60%) Croatia (37%) |
| Pts | GD | Probability | Last 16 | Chance |
| 3 | 0 | 10% | 10% | 96.1% |
| 3 | 4-5 | 3.5% | 3.2% | 90% |
| 3 | 3-4 | 4.1% | 3.5% | 85% |
| 3 | 2-3 | 1.9% | 1.5% | 78% |
| 3 | 4-6 | 2.5% | 2.0% | 78% |
| 3 | 3-5 | 3.6% | 2.6% | 73% |
| 3 | 2-4 | 1.4% | < 1% | 63% |
| 3 | 4-7 | 1.6% | 1.1% | 67% |
| 3 | 3-6 | 3.3% | 2.0% | 61% |
| 3 | 2-5 | 2.6% | 1.4% | 53% |
| 3 | -4 | 2.4% | 1.3% | 52% |
| 2 | 4-5 | 1.9% | < 1% | 21% |
| 2 | 3-4 | 3.3% | < 1% | 18% |
| 2 | 2-3 | 2.6% | < 1% | 16% |
| 2 | -2 | 2.5% | < 1% | 15% |
| Group D | point | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| GD | -2 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 5% | 3% | < 1% | 8% | 6% | 22% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 2% | < 1% | 7% | 5% | 22% | |
| Netherlands | 3rd | 25% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 25% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| France | 3rd | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Austria | 3rd | 73% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 5% | 3% | < 1% | 8% | 6% | 22% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 69% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 2% | < 1% | 7% | 5% | 22% | |
| Poland | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Group E | point | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| GD | -2 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 6% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 87% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6% | |
| Romania | 3rd | 22% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 20% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 4% | |
| Ukraine | 3rd | 33% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 26% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Slovakia | 3rd | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 26% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Belgium | 3rd | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 3% | |
| Group F | point | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| GD | -2 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 5% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | < 1% | 4% | 5% | < 1% | 4% | 6% | 8% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 78% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 3% | 4% | < 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | |
| Turkey | 3rd | 33% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 29% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | |
| Portugal | 3rd | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Czechia | 3rd | 39% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 29% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | |
| Georgia | 3rd | 23% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Group A | point | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| GD | -2 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | 9% | 3% | < 1% | 7% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 2% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 63% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | < 1% | 5% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | |
| Germany | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Switzerland | 3rd | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Scotland | 3rd | 53% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 29% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Hungary | 3rd | 45% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | 9% | 3% | < 1% | 7% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | < 1% | 5% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | |
| Group C | point | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| GD | -2 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 42% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 21% | |
| England | 3rd | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Denmark | 3rd | 20% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | |
| Slovenia | 3rd | 56% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 21% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 16% | |
| Serbia | 3rd | 17% | < 1% | 5% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Group B | point | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| GD | -2 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | -4 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 0 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 8% | 3% | < 1% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 34% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | < 1% | 5% | 6% | 2% | < 1% | |
| Spain | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Italy | 3rd | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 8% | 3% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | < 1% | 5% | 6% | 2% | < 1% | |
| Albania | 3rd | 35% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Croatia | 3rd | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
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