Euro: Germany and Switzerland can secure a spot in the knockout stage.
Euro: Germany and Switzerland can secure a spot in the knockout stage.
Portugal and Turkey in the lead in Group F after tight wins.
| Group F | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Turkey | 1 | +2 | 3 | 3.5% | 33% | 44% | 19% | 89% |
| Portugal | 1 | +1 | 3 | < 1% | 3.8% | 19% | 76% | 98.9% |
| Czechia | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24% | 40% | 33% | 3.3% | 61% |
| Georgia | 1 | -2 | 0 | 71% | 23% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 19% |
Today Germany and Switzerland can clinch a spot in the knockout-stage with a win against Hungary and Scotland, respectively, and a draw means advancement in practice (>99.7%). For Hungary and Scotland a win or at least point would be essential.
In Group B, Croatia and play a key Balkan derby. Croatia are out if they lose and Italy take a point against Spain, as detailed in tables below.
| Group A | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Germany | 1 | +4 | 3 | < 1% | 5.0% | 22% | 73% | 98.9% |
| Switzerland | 1 | +2 | 3 | 6% | 19% | 54% | 21% | 90% |
| Hungary | 1 | -2 | 0 | 44% | 43% | 9% | 4.6% | 38% |
| Scotland | 1 | -4 | 0 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 1.7% | 33% |
| Germany - Hungary | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 100% | >99.99% | 94% | Sco - Swi | ||
| 100% | >99.99% | 90% | 97.9% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 93% | 98.7% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 99.0% | 99.81% | Away | |
| Scotland - Switzerland | ||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | Away | |||
| 46% | 54% | 67% | 77% | 99.90% | 100% | Ger - Hun | ||
| 48% | 58% | 76% | 90% | 99.94% | 100% | 93% | Home | |
| 48% | 52% | 59% | 64% | 99.9% | 100% | 86% | Draw | |
| 39% | 44% | 50% | 52% | 99.7% | 100% | 83% | Away | |
| Germany - Hungary | ||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | Away | |||
| 13% | 18% | 24% | 30% | 45% | 72% | Sco - Swi | ||
| 13% | 17% | 21% | 26% | 45% | 72% | 36% | Home | |
| 13% | 18% | 25% | 32% | 46% | 72% | 39% | Draw | |
| 13% | 18% | 25% | 33% | 46% | 72% | 39% | Away | |
| Scotland - Switzerland | |||||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| 78% | 74% | 66% | 59% | 31% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 5% | Ger - Hun | ||
| 81% | 78% | 69% | 59% | 31% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 34% | Home | |
| 75% | 70% | 64% | 61% | 30% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 33% | Draw | |
| 75% | 69% | 60% | 56% | 30% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 31% | Away | |
| Group B | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Spain | 1 | +3 | 3 | 1.3% | 2.3% | 26% | 71% | 98.6% |
| Italy | 1 | +1 | 3 | 1.5% | 32% | 41% | 25% | 90% |
| Albania | 1 | -1 | 0 | 83% | 15% | 2.2% | < 1% | 9% |
| Croatia | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15% | 51% | 31% | 3.7% | 70% |
| Spain - Italy | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 100% | >99.99% | 95.4% | Cro - Alb | ||
| 100% | >99.99% | 95% | 98.4% | Home | |
| 100% | >99.99% | 96.3% | 98.9% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 99.1% | 99.7% | Away | |
| Spain - Italy | ||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | Away | |||
| 69% | 72% | 78% | 84% | 99.4% | 100% | Cro - Alb | ||
| 70% | 73% | 79% | 86% | 99.6% | 100% | 91% | Home | |
| 67% | 72% | 78% | 84% | 98.5% | 100% | 90% | Draw | |
| 65% | 68% | 71% | 73% | 99.9% | 100% | 87% | Away | |
| Croatia - Albania | ||||||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | -2 | -3 | |||
| < 1% | < 1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 9% | 60% | 63% | 66% | 79% | 88% | Spa - Ita | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | 59% | 64% | 67% | 83% | 91% | 8% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | 60% | 62% | 65% | 75% | 86% | 8% | Draw | |
| 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 7% | 9% | 60% | 64% | 65% | 75% | 85% | 11% | Away | |
| Croatia - Albania | ||||||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | Draw | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | -2 | -3 | |||
| 94% | 89% | 81% | 75% | 40% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 6% | 3% | Spa - Ita | ||
| 94% | 89% | 81% | 76% | 41% | 22% | 24% | 30% | 12% | 6% | 71% | Home | |
| 95% | 89% | 82% | 75% | 38% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 69% | Draw | |
| 94% | 89% | 81% | 74% | 40% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 69% | Away | |
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Spain (71%) Italy (25%) | ||||||||
Spain (53%) Italy (17%) Belgium (4%) | ||||||||
Turkey (14%) Czechia (13%) Romania (12%) Belgium (9%) Ukraine (9%) | ||||||||
Spain (32%) Germany (30%) Italy (9%) Denmark (4%) | ||||||||
Germany (73%) Switzerland (21%) | ||||||||
Germany (52%) Denmark (11%) Switzerland (10%) | ||||||||
Denmark (32%) Serbia (30%) Slovenia (23%) England (15%) | ||||||||
Spain (18%) Germany (18%) Portugal (16%) France (10%) Netherlands (9%) | ||||||||
Portugal (76%) Turkey (19%) | ||||||||
Portugal (51%) Croatia (10%) Turkey (7%) | ||||||||
Croatia (19%) Hungary (14%) Italy (13%) Serbia (11%) Scotland (9%) | ||||||||
Portugal (28%) Netherlands (16%) France (15%) Belgium (10%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (43%) France (30%) Austria (21%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (30%) France (23%) Belgium (18%) Austria (12%) | ||||||||
Belgium (35%) Romania (31%) Slovakia (22%) | ||||||||
France (22%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) England (9%) | ||||||||
Slovakia (41%) Romania (29%) Belgium (22%) | ||||||||
Belgium (14%) Slovakia (12%) Croatia (12%) Italy (8%) Austria (8%) | ||||||||
Croatia (16%) Austria (12%) Italy (11%) Serbia (10%) Slovenia (8%) | ||||||||
France (37%) Netherlands (17%) Belgium (7%) Portugal (6%) | ||||||||
France (62%) Netherlands (33%) | ||||||||
France (49%) Netherlands (23%) Turkey (9%) | ||||||||
Turkey (44%) Czechia (33%) Portugal (19%) | ||||||||
France (25%) England (16%) Netherlands (10%) Croatia (8%) | ||||||||
England (77%) Denmark (13%) | ||||||||
England (54%) Denmark (7%) Belgium (6%) | ||||||||
Romania (13%) Turkey (12%) Czechia (12%) Austria (11%) Belgium (10%) | ||||||||
England (30%) Italy (14%) Croatia (11%) Spain (11%) | ||||||||
Switzerland (54%) Germany (22%) Scotland (16%) | ||||||||
Italy (26%) Croatia (20%) Spain (18%) Switzerland (17%) | ||||||||
Italy (41%) Croatia (31%) Spain (26%) |
| Pts | GD | Probability | Last 16 | Chance |
| 4 | - | 30% | 30% | 98.9% |
| 3 | 0 | 7% | 6% | 91% |
| 3 | 5-6 | 2.3% | 1.9% | 85% |
| 3 | 4-5 | 3.5% | 2.9% | 81% |
| 3 | 3-4 | 3.3% | 2.5% | 77% |
| 3 | 5-7 | 1.8% | 1.2% | 68% |
| 3 | 4-6 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 64% |
| 3 | 3-5 | 3.2% | 1.9% | 59% |
| 3 | 2-4 | 1.6% | < 1% | 54% |
| 3 | 4-7 | 2.2% | 1.0% | 46% |
| 3 | 3-6 | 2.6% | 1.1% | 41% |
| 3 | 2-5 | 1.5% | < 1% | 37% |
| 3 | 3-7 | 1.7% | < 1% | 27% |
| 3 | -5 | 2.4% | < 1% | 20% |
| 2 | -1 | 4.9% | < 1% | 8% |
| Group E | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 5-6 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 8% | 43% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 43% | |
| Romania | 3rd | 30% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 25% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 9% | |
| Slovakia | 3rd | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | |
| Belgium | 3rd | 23% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 9% | |
| Ukraine | 3rd | 26% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | |
| Group B | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 5-6 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 31% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 31% | |
| Spain | 3rd | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| Italy | 3rd | 32% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | |
| Albania | 3rd | 15% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | |
| Croatia | 3rd | 51% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 35% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 15% | |
| Group F | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 5-6 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 5% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | < 1% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 25% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 25% | |
| Turkey | 3rd | 33% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 11% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 26% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 11% | |
| Portugal | 3rd | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| Czechia | 3rd | 40% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 25% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 8% | |
| Georgia | 3rd | 23% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | |
| Group D | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 5-6 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 24% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 66% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 24% | |
| Netherlands | 3rd | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | |
| France | 3rd | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | |
| Poland | 3rd | 29% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 4% | |
| Austria | 3rd | 44% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 5% | 8% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | 5% | 8% | |
| Group A | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 5-6 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | 5% | 3% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | < 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 27% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 59% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 27% | |
| Germany | 3rd | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| Switzerland | 3rd | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 6% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 2% | 6% | |
| Hungary | 3rd | 43% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 10% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 10% | |
| Scotland | 3rd | 33% | < 1% | 4% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | |
| Group C | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | -1 | -5 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 5-6 | 0 | - | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 12% | 31% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 58% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | 11% | 31% | |
| England | 3rd | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | |
| Slovenia | 3rd | 32% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 12% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 12% | |
| Denmark | 3rd | 31% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 11% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 11% | |
| Serbia | 3rd | 30% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 5% | 3% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 21% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | < 1% | 4% | 3% | |
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