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Olympics

Mohammed Anys Noman

November 11, 2024

1 minute

Blogs

An ideal start for Germany. Tonight an important match for Hungary and Switzerland in Group A.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Germany	1	+4	3	< 1%	5%	20%	73%	98.8%
Hungary	0	0	0	23%	30%	33%	14%	66%
Switzerland	0	0	0	27%	32%	29%	11%	60%
Scotland	1	-4	0	49%	32%	17%	1.7%	35%

Italy need to win against Albania to stay out of trouble.

Group B				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Spain	0	0	0	5%	22%	31%	42%	91%
Croatia	0	0	0	8%	29%	32%	30%	86%
Italy	0	0	0	10%	32%	31%	27%	83%
Albania	0	0	0	77%	17%	4.9%	1.6%	15%

Spain

Spain - Croatia
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
98.4%	91%	82%	80%	77%	74%	Ita - Alb
98.4%	92%	83%	80%	77%	74%	91%	Home
98.4%	92%	82%	79%	76%	72%	91%	Draw
98.3%	91%	79%	78%	74%	72%	90%	Away

Croatia

Spain - Croatia
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
69%	71%	75%	78%	88%	97.3%	Ita - Alb
69%	72%	75%	78%	89%	97.3%	86%	Home
67%	72%	74%	78%	89%	97.4%	86%	Draw
68%	68%	72%	74%	87%	97.0%	84%	Away

Italy

Italy - Albania
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
97.5%	96.5%	94%	92%	62%	38%	34%	32%	31%	Spa - Cro
97.5%	96.5%	94%	92%	63%	41%	36%	32%	31%	83%	Home
98%	96.3%	94%	92%	62%	32%	30%	32%	32%	83%	Draw
97.6%	96.5%	94%	92%	62%	38%	34%	31%	31%	83%	Away

Albania

Italy - Albania
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
6%	7%	8%	9%	20%	57%	64%	70%	72%	Spa - Cro
6%	7%	8%	10%	20%	57%	64%	71%	73%	16%	Home
6%	6%	8%	9%	19%	60%	65%	69%	72%	15%	Draw
6%	6%	7%	9%	20%	57%	64%	70%	71%	15%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
2.63; Italy have 6.7% if they win against Albania; otherwise 3.7%
2.31; Italy have 6.3% if they draw (or win) against Albania; otherwise 2.5%
1.19; Croatia have 8.2% if they draw (or win) against Spain; otherwise 6.1%
1.13; Spain have 13% if they draw (or win) against Croatia; otherwise 10%
1.05; Spain have 14% if they win against Croatia; otherwise 11%

Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
Spain (42%) Croatia (30%) Italy (27%)
	Spain (31%) Croatia (21%) Italy (18%) Czechia (3%)
Czechia (11%) Turkey (11%) Greece (11%) Slovakia (9%) Romania (8%)
		Germany (31%) Spain (18%) Croatia (11%) Italy (9%)
Germany (73%) Hungary (14%)
	Germany (51%) England (13%) Denmark (10%)
Denmark (29%) England (26%) Serbia (26%) Slovenia (18%)
			Germany (18%) Portugal (14%) Spain (13%) France (10%) Croatia (8%)
Portugal (63%) Czechia (14%) Turkey (12%)
	Portugal (41%) Italy (7%) Croatia (7%) Spain (6%)
Italy (13%) Croatia (12%) Serbia (11%) Denmark (10%) Slovenia (10%)
		Portugal (24%) France (14%) Netherlands (13%) Belgium (8%)
Netherlands (36%) France (28%) Austria (24%)
	Netherlands (24%) France (21%) Ukraine (16%) Belgium (14%)
Ukraine (40%) Belgium (26%) Slovakia (18%)
				France (20%) Germany (12%) Spain (12%) Portugal (10%) Belgium (8%)
Belgium (61%) Ukraine (27%)
	Belgium (38%) Ukraine (13%) Italy (6%) Croatia (6%)
Italy (12%) Croatia (11%) Serbia (10%) Denmark (9%) Slovenia (9%)
		France (30%) Belgium (20%) Netherlands (12%) Portugal (7%)
France (54%) Netherlands (29%) Austria (13%)
	France (42%) Netherlands (19%) Portugal (11%) Czechia (7%)
Czechia (29%) Turkey (25%) Greece (24%) Portugal (23%)
			France (21%) Belgium (12%) England (11%) Spain (9%) Netherlands (8%)
England (54%) Denmark (21%) Serbia (16%)
	England (37%) Denmark (11%) Serbia (8%) Austria (6%)
Austria (13%) Slovakia (11%) Romania (10%) Netherlands (9%) Ukraine (9%)
		England (20%) Spain (14%) Croatia (12%) Italy (11%) Germany (7%)
Hungary (33%) Switzerland (29%) Germany (20%) Scotland (17%)
	Spain (22%) Croatia (21%) Italy (19%) Hungary (12%) Germany (11%)
Croatia (32%) Italy (31%) Spain (31%)