Euro: Decider between Italy and Croatia

Tomorrow a deciding match between Italy and Croatia in Group B. A draw is enough for Italy while Croatia must win. Meanwhile, Albania play Spain and need to win to be sure to advance. They can also advance with a draw as third, if Croatia fail to win, but that will require a lot in terms of results going right in the other groups. See details below.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Germany	3	+6	7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
Switzerland	3	+2	5	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Hungary	3	-3	3	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	71%
Scotland	3	-5	1	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Spain	2	+4	6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
Italy	2	0	3	3.2%	37%	60%	< 1%	93%
Albania	2	-1	1	62%	35%	2.8%	< 1%	10%
Croatia	2	-3	1	35%	28%	37%	< 1%	40%

Italy

Croatia - Italy
+4	3-0	4-1	+2	+1	Draw	Away
37%	62%	83%	86%	90%	100%	100%	Spa - Alb
40%	67%	90%	94%	98.0%	100%	100%	96.0%	Home
43%	67%	89%	93%	97.9%	100%	100%	96.0%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	60%	Away

Albania

Spain - Albania
Home	0-0	1-1	2-2	Away
< 1%	12%	18%	20%	100%	Cro - Ita
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	8%	Home
< 1%	20%	29%	34%	100%	12%	Draw
< 1%	20%	29%	33%	100%	12%	Away

Croatia

Croatia - Italy
Home	Draw	Away
>99.99%	1.8%	< 1%	Spa - Alb
100%	2.3%	< 1%	41%	Home
100%	< 1%	< 1%	40%	Draw
99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	40%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
45.9; Croatia have 8.8% if they win against Italy; otherwise 0.04%
23.1; Croatia have 5.5% if they draw (or win) against Italy; otherwise 0%
12.8; Croatia have 4.6% if they and Italy do not draw ; otherwise 0.099%
3.66; Italy have 7.7% if they draw (or win) against Croatia; otherwise 4.3%
1.28; Italy have 7.7% if they win against Croatia; otherwise 5.6%

Group C				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
England	2	+1	4	< 1%	7%	16%	78%	>99.99%
Slovenia	2	0	2	26%	56%	6%	12%	40%
Denmark	2	0	2	20%	20%	49%	11%	68%
Serbia	2	-1	1	54%	17%	29%	< 1%	36%

England

Slovenia - England
Home	Draw	Away
99.98%	100%	100%	Den - Ser
99.96%	100%	100%	>99.99%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Slovenia

Slovenia - England
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3	-4
100%	99.8%	11%	17%	24%	7%	3.9%	3.1%	Den - Ser
100%	99.7%	15%	20%	24%	13%	9%	7%	43%	Home
100%	99.9%	7%	15%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	Draw
100%	99.7%	3%	12%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	37%	-1
100%	99.8%	16%	19%	24%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	40%	-2
100%	99.7%	16%	20%	23%	13%	5%	< 1%	42%	-3
100%	99%	18%	20%	26%	13%	7%	3%	43%	-4

Denmark

Denmark - Serbia
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3	1-4	-4
100%	99.93%	7%	11%	15%	3.4%	5%	1.1%	2%	< 1%	Slo - Eng
100%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	65%	Home
100%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	66%	Draw
100%	100%	11%	17%	24%	5%	8%	2%	3%	< 1%	69%	Away

Serbia

Denmark - Serbia
Home	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	Away
< 1%	6%	7%	11%	15%	>99.99%	Slo - Eng
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	34%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	34%	Draw
< 1%	9%	11%	17%	23%	100%	37%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
2.98; Denmark have 1.3% if they draw (or win) against Serbia; otherwise 0.16%
2.79; Serbia have 0.75% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 0.045%
2.23; Serbia have 0.49% if they draw (or win) against Denmark; otherwise 0%
2.05; England have 11% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 7.4%
1.36; England have 10% if they draw (or win) against Slovenia; otherwise 6.7%
1.24; Slovenia have 0.44% if they draw (or win) against England; otherwise 0.056%
1.05; Denmark have 1.3% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 0.6%

Group D				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Netherlands	2	+1	4	< 1%	25%	39%	36%	>99.99%
France	2	+1	4	< 1%	1.7%	42%	57%	>99.99%
Austria	2	+1	3	< 1%	74%	19%	7%	99.19%
Poland	2	-3	0	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Netherlands

Netherlands - Austria
Home	Draw	Away
100%	100%	>99.99%	Pol - Fra
100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	Home
100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	Draw
100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	Away

France

Poland - France
Home	Draw	Away
>99.99%	100%	100%	Net - Aus
100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
99.98%	100%	100%	>99.99%	Away

Austria

Netherlands - Austria
+4	3-0	4-1	+2	+1	Draw	Away
96%	97.9%	98.8%	99.7%	99.92%	100%	100%	Pol - Fra
96%	98%	99%	99.7%	99.9%	100%	100%	99.2%	Home
96%	98%	99%	99.6%	99.9%	100%	100%	99.2%	Draw
96%	97.9%	98.8%	99.7%	99.93%	100%	100%	99.2%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
1.05; France have 23% if they win against Poland; otherwise 20%

Group E				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Romania	2	+1	3	19%	21%	39%	21%	81%
Belgium	2	+1	3	15%	10%	43%	33%	85%
Slovakia	2	0	3	27%	33%	10%	31%	73%
Ukraine	2	-2	3	40%	36%	9%	16%	55%

Romania

Slovakia - Romania
Home	Draw	Away
52%	100%	100%	Bel - Ukr
98.7%	100%	100%	99.48%	Home
< 1%	100%	100%	59%	Draw
< 1%	100%	100%	60%	Away

Belgium

Belgium - Ukraine
Home	Draw	Away
100%	100%	40%	Slo - Rom
100%	100%	98.9%	99.73%	Home
100%	100%	< 1%	76%	Draw
100%	100%	< 1%	76%	Away

Slovakia

Slovakia - Romania
Home	Draw	-1	-2	0-3	1-4	-4
100%	>99.99%	24%	24%	20%	23%	16%	Bel - Ukr
100%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	65%	Home
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	65%	Draw
100%	100%	99.5%	97%	81%	95%	66%	98.4%	Away

Ukraine

Belgium - Ukraine
+4	+3	+2	1-0	2-1	3-2	Draw	Away
22%	22%	23%	29%	33%	34%	76%	100%	Slo - Rom
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	100%	47%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	24%	Draw
62%	62%	64%	81%	95%	96%	99.95%	100%	87%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
6.24; Belgium have 7.9% if they draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 2.9%
3.46; Belgium have 8.3% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 4.8%
3.19; Ukraine have 1.7% if they draw (or win) against Belgium; otherwise 0.4%
2.35; Ukraine have 2.1% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 0.66%

Group F				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Portugal	2	+4	6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
Turkey	2	-1	3	4.3%	37%	59%	< 1%	89%
Czechia	2	-1	1	15%	44%	40%	< 1%	46%
Georgia	2	-2	1	80%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	11%

Turkey

Turkey - Czechia
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
100%	100%	84%	80%	38%	35%	Geo - Por
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	59%	Home
100%	100%	93%	90%	43%	39%	93%	Draw
100%	100%	94%	90%	42%	39%	93%	Away

Czechia

Turkey - Czechia
Home	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	Away
< 1%	14%	21%	28%	31%	>99.99%	Geo - Por
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	41%	Home
< 1%	16%	24%	31%	36%	100%	47%	Draw
< 1%	16%	24%	31%	34%	100%	47%	Away

Georgia

Georgia - Portugal
Home	Draw	Away
99.96%	3.2%	< 1%	Tur - Cze
99.9%	9%	< 1%	12%	Home
99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	Draw
99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
2.39; Czechia have 0.73% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 0.067%
2.09; Czechia have 0.52% if they draw (or win) against Turkey; otherwise 0%

Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
Spain (100%)
	Spain (75%) Ukraine (6%)
Ukraine (19%) Slovakia (19%) Austria (16%) Turkey (15%) Romania (12%)
		Spain (42%) Germany (39%) Denmark (5%)
Germany (100%)
	Germany (70%) Denmark (14%)
Denmark (49%) Serbia (29%) England (16%)
			Spain (23%) Germany (21%) Portugal (18%) France (12%) Netherlands (7%)
Portugal (100%)
	Portugal (68%) Hungary (14%)
Hungary (48%) Italy (24%) Slovenia (9%)
		Portugal (36%) France (20%) Netherlands (13%) Belgium (11%)
France (42%) Netherlands (39%) Austria (19%)
	France (32%) Netherlands (26%) Belgium (21%) Austria (11%)
Belgium (43%) Romania (39%) Slovakia (10%)
				France (22%) Spain (13%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) England (10%)
Belgium (33%) Slovakia (31%) Romania (21%) Ukraine (16%)
	Belgium (22%) Austria (18%) Hungary (11%) Slovakia (9%) Ukraine (8%)
Austria (30%) Hungary (22%) Slovenia (13%) Netherlands (10%)
		France (35%) Netherlands (21%) Belgium (11%) Austria (9%)
France (57%) Netherlands (36%)
	France (47%) Netherlands (27%) Turkey (12%)
Turkey (59%) Czechia (40%)
			France (23%) England (18%) Netherlands (13%) Italy (12%)
England (78%) Slovenia (12%)
	England (55%) Austria (12%) Netherlands (5%)
Austria (26%) Turkey (15%) Slovakia (13%) Ukraine (12%)
		England (33%) Italy (22%) Croatia (14%) Switzerland (12%)
Switzerland (100%)
	Italy (40%) Switzerland (33%) Croatia (26%)
Italy (60%) Croatia (37%)

What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
3	-1	8%	8%	99.0%
3	4-6	2.2%	2.1%	95.6%
3	3-5	3.1%	2.9%	95.1%
3	3-6	2.3%	2.1%	92%
3	2-5	18%	13%	71%
3	3-7	1.1%	< 1%	53%
3	2-6	< 1%	< 1%	58%
3	-5	< 1%	< 1%	53%
2	5-6	< 1%	< 1%	32%
2	4-5	2.6%	< 1%	28%
2	3-4	4.7%	< 1%	21%
2	2-3	3.2%	< 1%	16%
2	3-5	1.3%	< 1%	12%
2	2-4	1.2%	< 1%	11%
2	-3	4.2%	< 1%	3.9%

Group D

point

-3

2-4

3-5

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

-5

2-6

3-7

2-5

3-6

3-5

4-6

-1

3rd

100%

< 1%

15%

3rd & Last 16

99%

< 1%

15%

Netherlands

3rd

25%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

25%

< 1%

France

3rd

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Austria

3rd

74%

< 1%

15%

3rd & Last 16

73%

< 1%

15%

Poland

3rd

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Group E

point

-3

2-4

3-5

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

-5

2-6

3-7

2-5

3-6

3-5

4-6

-1

3rd

100%

< 1%

14%

3rd & Last 16

94%

< 1%

14%

Romania

3rd

21%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

21%

< 1%

Belgium

3rd

10%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

10%

< 1%

Slovakia

3rd

33%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

32%

< 1%

Ukraine

3rd

36%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

31%

< 1%

Group A

point

-3

2-4

3-5

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

-5

2-6

3-7

2-5

3-6

3-5

4-6

-1

3rd

100%

< 1%

100%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

71%

< 1%

71%

< 1%

Germany

3rd

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Switzerland

3rd

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Hungary

3rd

100%

< 1%

100%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

71%

< 1%

71%

< 1%

Scotland

3rd

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Group F

point

-3

2-4

3-5

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

-5

2-6

3-7

2-5

3-6

3-5

4-6

-1

3rd

100%

< 1%

10%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

46%

< 1%

Portugal

3rd

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Turkey

3rd

37%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

30%

< 1%

Czechia

3rd

44%

< 1%

10%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Georgia

3rd

19%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

10%

< 1%

Group C

point

-3

2-4

3-5

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

-5

2-6

3-7

2-5

3-6

3-5

4-6

-1

3rd

100%

15%

16%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

45%

< 1%

England

3rd

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Slovenia

3rd

56%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

23%

< 1%

Denmark

3rd

20%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Serbia

3rd

17%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Group B

point

-3

2-4

3-5

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

-5

2-6

3-7

2-5

3-6

3-5

4-6

-1

3rd

100%

19%

< 1%

19%

3rd & Last 16

44%

< 1%

18%

Spain

3rd

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Italy

3rd

37%

< 1%

19%

3rd & Last 16

33%

< 1%

18%

Albania

3rd

35%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

Croatia

3rd

28%

19%

< 1%

3rd & Last 16

< 1%

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