Euro 24 - Probabilities
Euro 24 - Probabilities
We have simulated the tournament a million times and below are how often the countries reach the various stages. Comments about each group below.
| Team | Round of 16 | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Final | Champion |
| France | 93% | 71% | 48% | 31% | 20% |
| Spain | 91% | 63% | 39% | 22% | 12% |
| Germany | 92% | 60% | 36% | 21% | 12% |
| Portugal | 94% | 57% | 33% | 19% | 10% |
| Belgium | 95.1% | 57% | 30% | 17% | 9% |
| England | 91% | 58% | 31% | 16% | 8% |
| Netherlands | 82% | 53% | 29% | 15% | 7% |
| Croatia | 85% | 54% | 30% | 15% | 7% |
| Italy | 83% | 50% | 27% | 13% | 6% |
| Ukraine | 83% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 1.8% |
| Austria | 60% | 30% | 13% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Denmark | 69% | 30% | 11% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Hungary | 65% | 26% | 10% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Serbia | 62% | 24% | 8% | 2.6% | < 1% |
| Switzerland | 59% | 21% | 8% | 2.5% | < 1% |
| Czechia | 62% | 19% | 6% | 1.8% | < 1% |
| Scotland | 50% | 16% | 5% | 1.5% | < 1% |
| Turkey | 56% | 15% | 4.6% | 1.2% | < 1% |
| Greece | 53% | 14% | 4.1% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| Slovenia | 46% | 14% | 3.8% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Poland | 32% | 12% | 3.4% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Slovakia | 45% | 10% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Romania | 39% | 8% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Albania | 15% | 3.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Group A | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Germany | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 12% | 24% | 58% | 92% |
| Hungary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25% | 29% | 29% | 17% | 65% |
| Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31% | 30% | 25% | 14% | 59% |
| Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38% | 30% | 21% | 10% | 50% |
Germany clear favorites and then a tight race between the other three countries.
| Group B | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 22% | 31% | 42% | 91% |
| Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 29% | 32% | 30% | 85% |
| Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 32% | 31% | 27% | 83% |
| Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77% | 17% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 15% |
Abania has clearly the toughest draw, ending up with three countries that all have a realistic chance to win the tournament.
| Group C | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Serbia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28% | 30% | 26% | 16% | 62% |
| Denmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22% | 28% | 30% | 21% | 69% |
| England | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7% | 13% | 26% | 54% | 91% |
| Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43% | 29% | 19% | 9% | 46% |
England favorites, tight race between Serbia and Demark, while Slovenia is considered a dark horse. Yet they advance to the knock-out stage in 46% of the simulations.
| Group D | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.0% | 13% | 28% | 54% | 93% |
| Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27% | 36% | 24% | 13% | 60% |
| Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 36% | 29% | 82% |
| Poland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56% | 27% | 12% | 4.6% | 32% |
France favorites to win the whole tournament and in this group primarily challenged by Netherlands. Austria and Poland need a good start.
| Group E | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Ukraine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 22% | 40% | 27% | 83% |
| Romania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46% | 33% | 15% | 5% | 39% |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 9% | 26% | 61% | 95.1% |
| Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40% | 36% | 18% | 7% | 45% |
Belgium favorites in the group followed by Ukraine. Romania and Slovakia considered weaker.
| Group F | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 10% | 23% | 63% | 94% |
| Greece | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35% | 30% | 24% | 11% | 53% |
| Czechia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27% | 30% | 29% | 15% | 62% |
| Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33% | 30% | 25% | 12% | 56% |
Portugal is one the favorites in the tournament and won the group in 63% of the simulations. A tight race between the other three teams.
Below are the likely bracket for the knockout stage.
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Spain (42%) Croatia (30%) Italy (27%) | ||||||||
Spain (31%) Croatia (21%) Italy (18%) Czechia (3%) | ||||||||
Turkey (10%) Czechia (10%) Slovakia (9%) Greece (9%) Romania (9%) | ||||||||
Germany (25%) Spain (19%) Croatia (11%) Italy (9%) | ||||||||
Germany (58%) Hungary (17%) Switzerland (14%) | ||||||||
Germany (41%) England (14%) Denmark (11%) Serbia (9%) | ||||||||
Denmark (30%) England (26%) Serbia (26%) Slovenia (19%) | ||||||||
Germany (16%) Portugal (14%) Spain (13%) France (10%) Croatia (8%) | ||||||||
Portugal (63%) Czechia (15%) Turkey (12%) | ||||||||
Portugal (42%) Italy (7%) Croatia (6%) Czechia (6%) | ||||||||
Italy (12%) Croatia (11%) Serbia (11%) Denmark (10%) Slovenia (10%) | ||||||||
Portugal (24%) France (14%) Netherlands (13%) Belgium (8%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (36%) France (28%) Austria (24%) | ||||||||
Netherlands (24%) France (21%) Ukraine (16%) Belgium (14%) | ||||||||
Ukraine (40%) Belgium (26%) Slovakia (18%) | ||||||||
France (20%) Spain (12%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) Belgium (9%) | ||||||||
Belgium (61%) Ukraine (27%) | ||||||||
Belgium (38%) Ukraine (13%) Italy (7%) Croatia (7%) | ||||||||
Italy (13%) Croatia (12%) Serbia (9%) Spain (9%) Denmark (9%) | ||||||||
France (30%) Belgium (20%) Netherlands (12%) Portugal (7%) | ||||||||
France (54%) Netherlands (29%) Austria (13%) | ||||||||
France (42%) Netherlands (20%) Portugal (11%) Czechia (7%) | ||||||||
Czechia (29%) Turkey (25%) Greece (24%) Portugal (23%) | ||||||||
France (21%) Belgium (12%) England (11%) Spain (9%) Netherlands (8%) | ||||||||
England (54%) Denmark (21%) Serbia (16%) | ||||||||
England (37%) Denmark (11%) Serbia (8%) Austria (6%) | ||||||||
Austria (12%) Slovakia (11%) Romania (10%) Czechia (9%) Turkey (9%) | ||||||||
England (20%) Spain (14%) Croatia (12%) Italy (11%) Germany (9%) | ||||||||
Hungary (29%) Switzerland (25%) Germany (24%) Scotland (21%) | ||||||||
Spain (21%) Croatia (20%) Italy (19%) Germany (14%) Hungary (10%) | ||||||||
Croatia (32%) Italy (31%) Spain (31%) |
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