CL: Round of 16 Day 1
CL: Round of 16 Day 1
Updated probabilities after Tuesday night matches. Please note that there was a mistake in previous post in which Leipzig played Young Boys instead of Real Madrid, heavily inflating their chances for obvious reasons and also overestimating Germany's chances to win one of the two extra CL slots. My apologies.
Champions League
| Team | Quarter | Semifinal | Final | Champion |
| Man City | 99.53% | 74% | 53% | 35% |
| Real Madrid | 92% | 57% | 34% | 18% |
| Bayern | 78% | 45% | 24% | 12% |
| Inter | 61% | 34% | 18% | 9% |
| Arsenal | 69% | 36% | 17% | 8% |
| Paris SG | 59% | 26% | 10% | 4.1% |
| Dortmund | 58% | 24% | 9% | 3.3% |
| Barcelona | 58% | 24% | 9% | 3.2% |
| Atletico | 39% | 17% | 7% | 2.8% |
| PSV | 42% | 14% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Napoli | 42% | 14% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Sociedad | 41% | 14% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Porto | 31% | 11% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Lazio | 22% | 7% | 1.8% | < 1% |
| RB Leipzig | 8% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% |
| FC Kobenhavn | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Score | ||||
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| ENG | 86% | 19.83 | 14.63 | 24.63 |
| ITA | 67% | 19.13 | 14.29 | 27 |
| GER | 28% | 17.75 | 13.78 | 25.78 |
| ESP | 9% | 16.7 | 13.06 | 22.06 |
| FRA | 7% | 15.93 | 11.58 | 25.08 |
| CZE | 1.6% | 14.76 | 12.25 | 23.5 |
| BEL | < 1% | 14.23 | 11.6 | 20.6 |
| TUR | < 1% | 12.85 | 10.5 | 19.75 |
| POR | < 1% | 11.35 | 7.83 | 18.83 |
| NED | < 1% | 10.88 | 8.6 | 19 |
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