CL: And so they were twelve
CL: And so they were twelve
Updated probabilities after the matches this week.
Champions League
| Team | Quarter | Semifinal | Final | Champion |
| Man City | 100% | 73% | 52% | 33% |
| Real Madrid | 100% | 59% | 33% | 17% |
| Inter | 74% | 44% | 25% | 13% |
| Bayern | 100% | 52% | 25% | 11% |
| Arsenal | 59% | 33% | 17% | 8% |
| Paris SG | 100% | 44% | 18% | 7% |
| Barcelona | 68% | 27% | 10% | 3.5% |
| Dortmund | 65% | 23% | 8% | 2.7% |
| Atletico | 26% | 11% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| PSV | 35% | 12% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Porto | 41% | 12% | 3.2% | < 1% |
| Napoli | 32% | 10% | 2.9% | < 1% |
The outcome of the Europa League will decide the extra slot very much, particularly Leverkusen, Liverpool, Freiburg, and Milan.
Which countries get extra CL spots
| Score | ||||
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| ITA | 86% | 19.86 | 15.71 | 26.57 |
| ENG | 84% | 19.54 | 14.88 | 24.63 |
| GER | 25% | 17.78 | 15.21 | 22.5 |
| CZE | 3.0% | 15.36 | 13 | 23.5 |
| FRA | 1.1% | 15.49 | 13.42 | 20.42 |
| ESP | < 1% | 15.62 | 13.81 | 19.44 |
| BEL | < 1% | 14.4 | 12.4 | 18.4 |
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