Champions League: Three English teams in top in projected table.
Champions League: Three English teams in top in projected table.
In the simulations three English teams finish in the top most often and Premier League win the bonus spot in >95% of the simulations.
Champions League
| Pos | Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ | ||||
| 1 | 9 | Liverpool | 18 | 14-7 | 99.85% | 95.9% | 77% | 93% | 59% | 33% | 17% | 8% | ||||
| 2 | 7 | Man City | 17 | 22-7 | 99.86% | 96.7% | 79% | 96.7% | 77% | 58% | 43% | 21% | ||||
| 3 | 7 | Arsenal | 16 | 20-5 | 99.59% | 93% | 64% | 91% | 62% | 39% | 23% | 11% | ||||
| 4 | 6 | Dortmund | 16 | 24-11 | 99.57% | 94% | 69% | 88% | 47% | 21% | 9% | 4.3% | ||||
| 5 | 7 | Leverkusen | 16 | 13-3 | 99.48% | 92% | 62% | 89% | 56% | 31% | 16% | 8% | ||||
| 6 | 7 | Inter | 16 | 11-3 | 99.0% | 89% | 57% | 88% | 57% | 33% | 18% | 9% | ||||
| 7 | 9 | Aston Villa | 16 | 13-6 | 99.45% | 90% | 60% | 80% | 34% | 12% | 3.6% | 1.8% | ||||
| 8 | 6 | Real Madrid | 15 | 19-10 | 98.7% | 85% | 50% | 86% | 56% | 34% | 19% | 9% | ||||
| 9 | 6 | Barcelona | 15 | 17-11 | 97.5% | 80% | 43% | 76% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 3.6% | ||||
| 10 | 7 | Sporting | 14 | 10-6 | 95.2% | 70% | 30% | 67% | 30% | 12% | 4.6% | 2.3% | ||||
| 11 | 4 | Stuttgart | 14 | 10-9 | 93% | 65% | 24% | 58% | 22% | 8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | ||||
| 12 | 3 | Bayern | 13 | 23-12 | 95% | 70% | 29% | 73% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 5.0% | ||||
| 13 | 5 | Atalanta | 13 | 11-4 | 94% | 62% | 22% | 63% | 29% | 12% | 4.8% | 2.4% | ||||
| 14 | 6 | Lille | 13 | 11-8 | 93% | 61% | 21% | 53% | 18% | 6% | 1.5% | < 1% | ||||
| 15 | 7 | Monaco | 13 | 15-13 | 92% | 56% | 18% | 53% | 19% | 7% | 2.0% | < 1% | ||||
| 16 | 6 | Juventus | 13 | 13-11 | 90% | 57% | 20% | 60% | 27% | 11% | 4.2% | 2.1% | ||||
| 17 | 3 | Milan | 12 | 19-12 | 88% | 51% | 12% | 51% | 20% | 7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | ||||
| 18 | 7 | Brest | 12 | 17-13 | 88% | 50% | 15% | 39% | 9% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 19 | 6 | Benfica | 12 | 14-14 | 83% | 41% | 11% | 43% | 15% | 4.8% | 1.4% | < 1% | ||||
| 20 | 6 | Feyenoord | 12 | 12-13 | 84% | 41% | 10% | 37% | 10% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 21 | 4 | Paris SG | 11 | 13-11 | 78% | 37% | 9% | 53% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3.2% | ||||
| 22 | 2 | PSV | 11 | 11-11 | 71% | 28% | 4.4% | 34% | 12% | 3.9% | 1.1% | < 1% | ||||
| 23 | 4 | Celtic | 11 | 14-17 | 70% | 27% | 4.9% | 21% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 24 | 3 | Atletico | 11 | 8-13 | 67% | 24% | 3.7% | 34% | 13% | 4.6% | 1.5% | < 1% | ||||
| 25 | 4 | Sparta Praha | 10 | 9-16 | 52% | 14% | 2.0% | 18% | 4.4% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 26 | 3 | Girona | 8 | 13-15 | 37% | 8% | < 1% | 13% | 3.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 27 | 0 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 6-8 | 34% | 6% | < 1% | 17% | 7% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 28 | 3 | Brugge | 8 | 9-16 | 29% | 5% | < 1% | 9% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 29 | 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 9-17 | 32% | 6% | < 1% | 4.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 30 | 1 | Bologna | 7 | 6-9 | 25% | 4.4% | < 1% | 10% | 2.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 31 | 1 | Shakhtar | 5 | 5-12 | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 32 | 0 | Young Boys | 4 | 4-17 | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 33 | 0 | Crvena Zvezda | 4 | 8-22 | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 34 | 0 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 5-16 | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 35 | 0 | Salzburg | 3 | 5-20 | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | ||||
| 36 | 0 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 3-22 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 | ||||
| Pts | GD | Pts | GD | Pts | GD | |
| 1% | 11 | 12-12 | 14 | 15-11 | 17 | 18-8 |
| 5% | 11 | 14-20 | 14 | 12-19 | 17 | 15-10 |
| 25% | 10 | 11-13 | 13 | 12-9 | 16 | 21-14 |
| 50% | 10 | 13-21 | 13 | 11-12 | 16 | 13-10 |
| 75% | 9 | 7-9 | 12 | 9-5 | 15 | 20-13 |
| 95% | 8 | 13-15 | 12 | 10-13 | 14 | 18-7 |
| 99% | 8 | 7-13 | 11 | 15-14 | 14 | 13-8 |
Which countries get extra CL spots
| Score | ||||
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| ENG | 95.2% | 19.67 | 10.36 | 26.93 |
| POR | 32% | 15.26 | 6.6 | 28.1 |
| ITA | 25% | 15.04 | 7.5 | 23.63 |
| GER | 20% | 14.81 | 7.63 | 22.56 |
| ESP | 12% | 14.02 | 6.57 | 23.36 |
| BEL | 6% | 13.37 | 6 | 25.4 |
| CYP | 5% | 12.87 | 5.67 | 23.67 |
| FRA | 1.7% | 12.1 | 5.93 | 20.93 |
| CZE | 1.3% | 11.9 | 6.5 | 21.7 |
| GRE | < 1% | 10.75 | 4.63 | 21.25 |
| TUR | < 1% | 10.49 | 4.7 | 19.7 |
| SWE | < 1% | 10.57 | 5.75 | 19.63 |
| NED | < 1% | 10.1 | 4.5 | 19.33 |
| UKR | < 1% | 7.2 | 2.5 | 23.25 |
| NOR | < 1% | 9.73 | 4.88 | 17.63 |
| DEN | < 1% | 8.76 | 3.75 | 16.25 |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Probability | 15% | 37% | 33% | 13% | 2.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance | < 1% | 12% | 45% | 83% | 98.2% |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Probability | < 1% | 7% | 24% | 38% | 25% | 6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance | < 1% | < 1% | 5% | 28% | 62% | 87% |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Probability | < 1% | 6% | 21% | 34% | 26% | 10% | 1.7% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Chance | < 1% | < 1% | 2.6% | 14% | 40% | 71% | 92% |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||
| Probability | 44% | 41% | 13% | 1.7% | |||||||||
| Chance | 9% | 38% | 80% | 98.7% |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Probability | 1.3% | 9% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 8% | 1.5% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Chance | < 1% | < 1% | 2.5% | 13% | 36% | 66% | 89% |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |||||||
| Probability | 9% | 29% | 36% | 20% | 5% | < 1% | |||||||
| Chance | 1.1% | 6% | 22% | 51% | 83% | 97% |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||
| Probability | 16% | 37% | 32% | 13% | 2.6% | ||||||||
| Chance | 1.1% | 7% | 24% | 55% | 84% |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Probability | 2.8% | 15% | 32% | 32% | 15% | 2.9% | |||||||||||||||||||
| Chance | < 1% | < 1% | 1.7% | 12% | 38% | 72% |
| n | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Probability | 4.5% | 18% | 35% | 31% | 10% | < 1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chance | < 1% | 3.6% | 16% | 38% | 63% | 84% |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||
| Probability | 19% | 39% | 30% | 10% | 1.5% | ||||||||
| Chance | < 1% | 3.2% | 16% | 46% | 83% |
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