Asian Cup: Who will join Qatar from Group A to the knockout stage?
Asian Cup: Who will join Qatar from Group A to the knockout stage?
As detailed below, China need a point against Qatar or Tajikistan and Lebanon play 0-0. Tajikistan need a win against Lebanon or if Qatar beat China a draw mostlike suffices (see table below). Lebanon need to beat Tajikistan and then they have good chances.
| Group A | Probabilities | |||||||
| Team | Pld | GF | Pts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 16 |
| Qatar | 2 | +4 | 6 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% |
| China | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12% | 62% | 26% | < 1% | 39% |
| Tajikistan | 2 | -1 | 1 | 31% | 20% | 49% | < 1% | 58% |
| Lebanon | 2 | -3 | 1 | 57% | 18% | 25% | < 1% | 31% |
| Qatar - China | ||||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 3-2 | Draw | Away | |||
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.7% | 6% | 9% | 85% | 100% | Taj - Leb | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.0% | 5% | 80% | 100% | 38% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 60% | 0-0 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 41% | 1-1 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 41% | 2-2 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 41% | 3-3 | |
| < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.0% | 5% | 80% | 100% | 37% | Away | |
| Tajikistan - Lebanon | |||||||||||
| +4 | +3 | +2 | +1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3-3 | Away | |||
| 100% | >99.99% | 99.98% | 99.7% | 40% | 59% | 61% | 62% | < 1% | Qat - Chi | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | 69% | +4 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | 69% | +3 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | 69% | +2 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 19% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | 65% | +1 | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | < 1% | 1.9% | 5% | 8% | < 1% | 46% | Draw | |
| 100% | >99.99% | 99.9% | 98.5% | < 1% | 1.9% | 5% | 8% | < 1% | 45% | Away | |
| Tajikistan - Lebanon | ||||||||
| Home | Draw | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | |||
| < 1% | < 1% | 96.5% | 98.3% | 99.8% | >99.99% | Qat - Chi | ||
| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 31% | Home | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 31% | Draw | |
| < 1% | < 1% | 83% | 92% | 99% | 99.9% | 28% | Away | |
| Last 16 | Quarter-finals | Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||||
Tajikistan (49%) China (26%) Lebanon (25%) | ||||||||
United Arab Emirates (43%) Tajikistan (16%) Palestine (13%) Iran (11%) | ||||||||
United Arab Emirates (63%) Palestine (24%) | ||||||||
Iraq (44%) United Arab Emirates (19%) Iran (9%) | ||||||||
Iraq (100%) | ||||||||
Iraq (68%) Oman (11%) | ||||||||
Bahrain (28%) Oman (27%) Thailand (24%) Jordan (14%) | ||||||||
Australia (34%) Iraq (17%) South Korea (13%) Saudi Arabia (7%) | ||||||||
Australia (76%) Uzbekistan (24%) | ||||||||
Australia (67%) Uzbekistan (19%) | ||||||||
Indonesia (42%) Palestine (19%) China (11%) United Arab Emirates (9%) | ||||||||
Australia (46%) South Korea (17%) Saudi Arabia (14%) | ||||||||
Saudi Arabia (81%) Thailand (19%) | ||||||||
Saudi Arabia (40%) South Korea (29%) Jordan (16%) | ||||||||
South Korea (37%) Jordan (36%) Bahrain (27%) | ||||||||
Japan (27%) Australia (20%) Iran (20%) South Korea (12%) | ||||||||
Iran (87%) | ||||||||
Iran (76%) United Arab Emirates (8%) | ||||||||
Syria (47%) India (13%) Oman (12%) | ||||||||
Japan (47%) Iran (35%) South Korea (13%) | ||||||||
South Korea (61%) Jordan (34%) | ||||||||
Japan (71%) South Korea (24%) | ||||||||
Japan (97%) | ||||||||
Japan (37%) Iran (25%) Qatar (10%) South Korea (9%) | ||||||||
Qatar (100%) | ||||||||
Qatar (72%) Bahrain (8%) | ||||||||
Palestine (30%) Bahrain (29%) Jordan (17%) United Arab Emirates (14%) | ||||||||
Qatar (38%) Uzbekistan (25%) Australia (14%) Oman (6%) | ||||||||
Uzbekistan (64%) Australia (24%) | ||||||||
Uzbekistan (44%) Australia (19%) Oman (14%) | ||||||||
Thailand (46%) Oman (35%) Saudi Arabia (19%) |
| Pts | GD | Probability | Last 16 | Chance |
| 4 | -1 | 11% | 11% | 97.5% |
| 4 | -2 | 5% | 5% | 95% |
| 3 | 1-1 | 1.2% | < 1% | 80% |
| 3 | 3-5 | 3.3% | 2.6% | 79% |
| 3 | 2-4 | 2.8% | 2.2% | 76% |
| 3 | 3-6 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 66% |
| 3 | 2-5 | 3.7% | 2.3% | 62% |
| 3 | 3-7 | 1.8% | < 1% | 51% |
| 3 | 2-6 | 3.4% | 1.6% | 47% |
| 3 | 3-8 | < 1% | < 1% | 37% |
| 3 | 2-7 | 2.0% | < 1% | 36% |
| 3 | 2-8 | 1.4% | < 1% | 34% |
| 3 | -7 | 1.2% | < 1% | 34% |
| 2 | 2-3 | 3.1% | < 1% | 14% |
| 2 | 1-2 | 4.3% | < 1% | 7% |
| Group E | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | 1-2 | 2-3 | -7 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 1-1 | -2 | -1 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | 24% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 89% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | 24% | |
| Jordan | 3rd | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| South Korea | 3rd | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Bahrain | 3rd | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | 24% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 57% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | 24% | |
| Malaysia | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Group F | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | 1-2 | 2-3 | -7 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 1-1 | -2 | -1 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 3% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | 4% | 8% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 83% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 8% | |
| Saudi Arabia | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Thailand | 3rd | 35% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 8% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 34% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 8% | |
| Oman | 3rd | 53% | 3% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 39% | < 1% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Kyrgyzstan | 3rd | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Group C | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | 1-2 | 2-3 | -7 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 1-1 | -2 | -1 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | < 1% | 24% | 23% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 82% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | < 1% | 24% | 22% | |
| Iran | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| United Arab Emirates | 3rd | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 5% | 6% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 6% | |
| Palestine | 3rd | 66% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 17% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 49% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | 16% | |
| Hong Kong | 3rd | 10% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Group B | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | 1-2 | 2-3 | -7 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 1-1 | -2 | -1 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 10% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 72% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| Australia | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Uzbekistan | 3rd | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | |
| Syria | 3rd | 66% | 10% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 47% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| India | 3rd | 22% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | < 1% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Group D | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | 1-2 | 2-3 | -7 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 1-1 | -2 | -1 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 47% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | |
| Iraq | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Japan | 3rd | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Indonesia | 3rd | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 45% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | |
| Vietnam | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Group A | point | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| GD | 1-2 | 2-3 | -7 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 1-1 | -2 | -1 | ||
| 3rd | 100% | 12% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 4% | 2% | |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | 3% | 2% | |
| Qatar | 3rd | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| China | 3rd | 62% | 8% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Tajikistan | 3rd | 20% | 5% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| Lebanon | 3rd | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 2% |
| 3rd & Last 16 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3% | 2% | |
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